Poll puts Bush, Kerry about even [Details on the GALLUP/USA TODAY/CNN POLL]

CNN.com ^ | 10/3/04 | CNN.com

[MarlboroRed]

CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.

The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.

The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.

[Soul Seeker]

I'm not depressed. I am frustrated by the overabundance of trolls running wild, and some Freepers giving them Red meat as encouragement.

I'm confident G.W. is going to win, hasn't changed at all.

And still waiting for the weighting on this poll. LOL

[Clump]

True

[Paulus Invictus]

In various TV appearances at rallies for the RATs, they were all in a celebratory mode, thinking and saying that Kerry is going to win after all. Let's make that into a big lie by getting out the Pubbie vote!

[Dec31,1999]

Yes, I know. That is exactly the point. Style and appearance count more on the TV than anything else, especially with the swing voters. We ignore these things at our own peril, IMO.

I know lots of people who only get their news from the three big networks or their affiliations. In fact, there ain't much else out there.

So they are going to drink the Kool Aid and vote for Kerry.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

So, color me confused. What I am getting is that Gallup polled "people". Some of which are registered, fewer of
which are likely to vote. OK.... I am now convinced, Kerry will win. (kidding here...)

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[Nataku X]

Someone else posted that we were down by 11 points in Gallup between 10/1-10/7 in 2000. Now we're committing suicide 'cause we're tied. We're a bunch of wimps.

[alnick]

So they are going to drink the Kool Aid and vote for Kerry.

Some will, some won't. The election is not over.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

Thank you so much!

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[Soul Seeker]

No kidding.

The fact remains that (so far) Gallop is the only one to show any significant movement towards Kerry, and even at that only arriving at a tie. NEWSWEEK was debunked. CBS tried to front a phony story, dug in the internals, Bush posted more gains on undecideds. RASS show little movement, and mostly positive for the Prez. The other polls have basically shown a tie or been exposed.

Now I'm not saying this Gallop poll is a fraud. I am saying I want the weight of Party resondents to compare next to the previous poll. people had already noted gallop oversampled republicans earlier. If they adjusted that weighting in this poll or sampled more Dems, we arrive at the reason for the dramatic shift in numbers.

I can accept a Kerry small bounce, I have difficulty believing the extent shown here with only 1# left undecided.

Why hasn't Gallop posted the party weighting yet?

[Owen]

My theory is if you hold partisan percentages constant, you automatically undo unintentional things that might skew results by party -- like perhaps polling on days or hours favorable to one side or the other . . . in terms of whether or not they are home to answer the phone. This also, btw, addresses selection of zipcode. Holding a mix constant is a valid methodology for a constant registration mix in the population.

But what it won't do is spot some surge in registration. Holding partisan mix constant would intentionally ignore a surge in registration.

Rasmussen holds mix constant and he's showing very little change all year long. He'll miss a registration surge, if there is one.

Those allowing mix to float . . . well, they will catch such a surge. I do not think this recent closure is evidence of such a surge, because Dems were in a majority of samples in July, then became a minority, and now are majority again. The registration drives were ongoing all along. The Dem majority should have grown consistently if they were consistently out-registering Republicans.

We'll know more in a week or so.

[COURAGE]

This is poll that Bush is stalled, the the undecided are going to Kerry and he is surging. Bush is in trouble, that debate, even I thought that Bush was not great, but not bad either, the first debate has been a disaster. Bush is in big trouble now. He played too safe in the first debate.

[Torie]

One problem with a surge in registration, is that the surgers tend not to vote, maybe because a fair number are fraudulent, and generated by those paid by per registrant. In the end, it takes some guts to fraudulently vote, and I don't think many do it. What's in it for them?

[Dave S]

78 of those polled are not registered to vote. How can you tell what the internal democrat to republican percents

They get that information by asking the person polled, not by looking it up in the records so it doesnt matter that they are not registered...other than I think its too late to register as of this weekend.

[Owen]

A free ride in a van with donuts. The best defense against this, and the nursing home Alzheimer patients whose absentee ballots are being filed "with help", is something I saw yesterday . . . a 527 is offering substantial rewards for anyone who fingers a fraudulent voter.

Nice inhibition effect if this is advertised well in Dem areas.

But regardless of all this, I still don't see how partisan mix can vary so extremely in a few weeks given no change from Rasmussen. If the debate mattered, Rasmussen would have shown it.

[COEXERJ145]

Go away dipsh*t. Everyone on this forum is getting sick and tired of trolls like you.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[conservativepoet]

You need to check the numbers from the last four days since the debate. You'll see that Bush is gradually climbing.

[rdl6989]

You'll see that Bush is gradually climbing

People are comming to their senses again!

[RWR8189]

Ping those I saw that were interested in the internals.

Looks like the big move came from Independents jumping ship to Kerry.

 

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry Based on Registered Voters

	Oct 1-3		Sep 24-26		Sep 13-15		Sep 3-5
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	49	41	54	44	52	48	49
Gender
Men	45	54	40	56	40	56	45	52
Women	51	45	42	53	47	49	50	46
Race
Whites	43	54	36	60	40	57	42	55
Non-whites	68	29	62	30	63	31	69	25
Age
18-49	47	50	40	56	41	54	48	48
50-64	46	52	47	48	48	50	47	48
65+	52	43	41	55	46	48	48	50
Region
East	54	42	51	46	52	44	51	45
Midwest	58	39	39	54	43	51	47	48
South	37	61	39	57	37	60	45	52
West	47	51	38	59	48	49	49	48
Education
Post-graduate	62	37	51	45	55	43	52	44
College graduate	44	54	39	58	38	57	40	58
Some college	43	55	40	57	41	53	45	50
High school or less	48	48	39	54	44	53	51	47
Income
$75,000 or more	50	48	37	59	40	58	43	55
$50,000-$74,999	38	61	43	55	45	54	44	53
$30,000-$49,999	46	52	42	55	44	53	54	42
Less than $30,000	58	35	46	47	48	44	51	43
Ideology
Conservative	23	75	21	75	15	83	24	74
Moderate	57	40	49	47	57	38	56	40
Liberal	81	14	85	13	81	16	84	13
Partisanship
Republicans	3	94	6	93	4	94	7	90
Independents	54	40	46	48	50	43	49	46
Democrats	89	10	85	10	85	11	90	7

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader Based on Registered Voters

	October 1-3			September 24-26			September 3-5
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	47	49	1	42	53	3	46	48	4
Gender
Men	43	53	2	39	55	4	43	51	5
Women	50	45	2	43	51	3	48	46	3
Race
Whites	42	54	2	35	60	3	40	55	3
Non-whites	67	28	3	65	28	4	68	24	6
Age
18-49	46	50	3	40	55	4	45	48	5
50-64	45	51	3	46	48	3	46	48	3
65+	52	43	1	41	55	3	47	49	1
Region
East	51	42	4	50	45	3	48	46	3
Midwest	58	38	--	42	52	3	45	49	4
South	36	59	4	38	56	2	43	51	4
West	46	50	2	37	58	4	47	47	5
Education
Post-graduate	60	36	3	51	43	4	51	44	1
College graduate	43	54	1	39	58	2	38	58	3
Some college	42	55	1	39	56	3	46	50	3
High school or less	47	46	4	40	54	3	46	46	6
Income
$75,000 or more	49	46	4	37	58	2	43	54	2
$50,000-$74,999	38	61	1	41	54	3	41	54	4
$30,000-$49,999	44	52	3	42	54	3	52	41	6
Less than $30,000	58	34	2	47	45	5	49	43	5
Ideology
Conservative	22	74	2	22	75	1	22	74	4
Moderate	56	39	3	49	44	4	54	40	3
Liberal	81	13	3	83	12	5	82	10	4
Partisanship
Republicans	4	93	1	7	92	*	6	91	2
Independents	53	39	4	46	45	6	43	44	8
Democrats	88	10	1	84	10	4	90	7	2

 

[Troublemaker]

Thank you for posting this information. It's still amazing how some people take the Newsweek poll serious when they have Kerry leading with all men over Bush when every single poll has Bush leading well w/ men.