Posted on 10/03/2004 4:54:24 PM PDT by MarlboroRed
CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.
The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.
The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Ok, you've convinced me. I just called GW and told him Dec31,1999 said he'd better shape up in the next debate or lose it all. He agreed and said he'd get right on it. There. Problem fixed. Nothing to it.
This is bad news.
I am having a lot of difficulty understanding how polls with no targetted partisan mix obtain such wide variances. The Dem majority (note I'm not saying over representation) in the partisan mix in July, transitioning to a GOP majority in the mix until now, and now the Dem majority again strikes me as not possible. This many people are not changing their party affiliation this rapidly.
Something has to be wrong, and not intentionally, with the sampling.
John Kerry has sent out his Used Car Salesmen (MSM) to convince you the public he is up in the polls
John Kerry has sent out his Used Car Salesmen (MSM) to convince you the public he is up in the polls
By the way, tell the Prez we love him! ;)
I hate to criticize, but we really need to win this election, IMHO.
Man why do some people go into every single topic and start in about how doomed we are? It's pathetic. You oughta work for the Kerry campaign right about now...they'd love you.
John Kerry has sent out his Used Car Salesmen (MSM) to convince you the public he is up in the polls
Kerry needed a complete mastery of Bush in the first debate to make any significant gain in the polls, and he failed to make that happen. As for the economy, Bush will be well prepard to deflect Kerry's hype and lies. He has a masters in business from Harvard Bus. School and he has a better grasp of economic principles than Komrade Kerry does. I think most Americans understand that 9-11 was the major cause of the economic slowdown, and that Bush is doing a good job of leading America back to economic strength and stability. The econony is much stronger now than in the first two years after 9-11, and it's still growing. So try as he will, the communist Kerry won't be able to successfully argue against the facts.
"As for Limbaugh, its best to get outside of the talk radio fishbowl."
Best for the Democrats, that's why it won't happen.
What's a large margin?
Any indication anywhere as to the ratio of Republicans to DemocRATs? Is this another polluted poll like Newsweaks?
And I keep asking the same about party weighting so we can measure it to the last poll, still no answer.
Bush will win big.
I hope that's true. Sounds like the truism that the taller man always win, but which was not true in 2000.
The issue of whether to hold partisan percentages constant, or allow them to flip, is an interesting. I tend to be an anti flipper type, but which is best, I really have no idea. Pity that the final polls, when the rubber meets the road, will tend to converge (folks coming home to their previous party affiliation?), so we will never really know the answer to this interesting question.
Add the first two rows in the "Last" Column and that is the Kerry percentage. Do the same for the the 3rd and 4th row and that is the Bush percentage.
The numbers are currently summing to about .400 for Kerry and .600 for Bush. That is the normalized price you pay to win 1.000 when the election is held. In simple terms you have to bet, for example, $60 to win $100 on Bush and you have to bet $40 to win $100 on Kerry. So the it is good news when the market prices the Bush bet higher than the Kerry bet. That means the market thinks Bush is going to win.
John Kerry very articulately stated that we should give nuclear fuel to Iran!
You're focusing on style rather than substance. The media is spinning, and the polls are cooked.
The Henny Penny bit is not helpful.
Someone posted the Gallop results somewhere the last few days.
Bush lost the first debate to Gore in 2000, went on to win. Reagan lost to Mondale, went on to win. Bush lost to Dukakis, I think, went on to win. Clinton & 41 lost to Perot, Clinton won.
I use the "Last" column as the number to track. I believe that this reflects the last sale of shares and should therefore reflect the current value of a Bush share and a Kerry share. You have to sum the first and second rows for Kerry and the third and forth rows for Bush to get the sums.
I have read all these polls and doom and gloom folks out there and have come to a conclusion that the there is going to be a tremendous surprise on 11.2. The whole point of the debate is that Kerry presented his ideas in a clear way...and 55+% of the public doesn't like his ideas! 55/45 W over Kerry at the end of the day and the MSM will scratch their heads and wonder what happened. It happened in 2002 and it's going to happen again. They no longer have an accurate pulse on the American public because they no longer represent the American public.
You ARE the person resposible for his election in 2000, as I see it. Your website tipped the scales and put him into position as the leader of the free world. If it hadn't been for FR, Al Gore would still be president.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.