Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
This thread is RAT infested.........
I think it was Bush not his handlers. Carville said that it always comes down to the candidate not the handlers.
Bush is a very very poor speaker, worse than I am. He does well in front of friendly audiences but poorly in front of hostile or neutral ones ( UN speeches exempt, he must like going there)
He isnt fast on his feet and is inarticulate.
Calm down. This is one poll, a weekend poll of registered voters at that. Let's show some stamina.
GWB is not a good "formal" debater and will hopefully, be more himself at the "town hall" debate.
Kerry has been debating since he came back form Viet Nam (debated John O'Neill on Dick Cavett, remember?)
Reagan lost his first debate to Mondale and Al Gore supposedly beat GWB in the 2000 debates...last I checked Reagan and GWB both won.
The media is spinning like crazy. I saw the other day here and now Drudge has the same article up saying C-SPAN got footage of , Joe Lockhart telling Mike McCurry the debate was draw immediately after, then he went on TV and said Kerry won.
I'm surprised they aren't all throwing up from the dizziness after all the spinning they've been doing.
Congratulations
Come on, that's pretty lame, even if true...
How could he NOT challenge that scumbag on his lies? How could he just sit there, stewing, making faces, and NOT striking back?
It just reinforces to many millions of Americans that they must be true (they're not)... How can he just let Skerry fly with one lie after another... Also calling the President a liar time and again in front of all of America, and the world??
There are millions of people who think (most wrongfully) that Bush is a moron, a lightweight, a dolt... He did not change one single mind... As a matter of fact, I'm sure many others joined the ranks...
Going out the next day and blasting Skerry is whistling past the graveyard... Pathetic, too little, too late...
Bush and Cheney have allowed the Dem attacks to go unchallenged for nearly 2 years, here was his attempt to set the record straight...
His response, in a word? DUH.
I could happen, but it's doubtful in my mind. Most of the major polling companies that do not weight polls ask generic party IDs at the beginning of each poll before each poll, especially Gallup and Pew. For the year so far after about 40,000 interviews, Gallup has it even leaning to 0.5 GOP advantage. Pew, with about half as many interviews has it about +1 or +2 Dem advantage, IIRC.
The funny thing is that if you do the Ruy Texiera thing and believe that party ID doesn't move any and stays constant at 39D-35R-26I (something which I don't believe), Kerry actually lost 0.5% from being +1.61% in the 9/9-9/10 poll to being +1.06% in this poll. Go figure.
Newsweek polls don't have the world's greatest track record. But my feeling from the beginning is that the gains Kerry will make in these unweighted polls will be in terms of partisan energy, not much else. We will see when we get to more unweighted polls, like Gallup, Pew, CBS, ABC, etc.
Everyone see post #425.....oversampled Rats... they have been oversampling Repubs and look at the MOE.....they adjusted this poll to fit their views...
Man, I don't know where you get your confidence with Bush as a speaker.First of all, I know he's a great speaker because I've heard him speak. Many times. He did great after 9/11 and he's been giving good speeches ever since.
And this wasn't a DEBATE, it was a SERIES OF SHORT SPEECHES.
For some reason, Karl Rove WITHELD SPEECHES from Bush. Didn't let him prep with the obvious right set of short speeches. And also made sure that Bush was over-tired.
This has nothing to do with "great speeches" and everything to do with pointing out Kerry's obvious lies.
None of Kerry's lies were suprises. Bush was held back. Bush was set up.
Man, you guys got no guts. Now you know how the dems felt for the past few weeks.
Buck up, it's one poll, one snapshot (and 2 others show no change). There are 3 debates and 4 weeks left. People can change their mind in a heartbeat. The people who changed that fast will change again in a second.
Let me give you an example. The morning after the debate on good morning america they interviewed 5 people who were supposedly "undecided" who saw the debate. The interviewer asked, "Who has now made up their mind based on this debate?" Two people raised their hands, both for Kerry. The interviewer said, "So this debated changed you from undecided to Kerry supporters? They both nodded yes. Then she started questioning one of them, a woman. The woman said, "There's at least a 60% chance I'll vote for kerry, and 40% bush."
So this brain-damaged "undecided" voter apparently didn't understand the question, which was: Who has *decided* who they are going to vote for based on this one debate. Her answer to further questioning revealed she is, in fact, still UNDECIDED, and merely slightly leaning toward Kerry 60/40. Many, if not most, of the undecideds fit in this category. They're brains are random number generators, whatever they see the day before the debate will swing them, or they simply will never decide and won't vote at all.
The debate is a setback but not a disaster by any means.
Bush had more meat. Kerry more desert. Most people will vote based on who they think will kill more terrorists, no matter how the polls wiill fluctuate with people thinking "maybe" one way or other til then.
Get a grip. No one thinks Bush is a good talker. He looked pissed off and tired. But look at the numbers--the mass of voters think Bush the better leader. Gee, wonder who they'll vote for for their LEADER--the better leader, maybe?
The point is that there is danger everywhere.
Everything considered, our casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq are remarkably few.
Not going to war, doesn't guarantee life for x years. You never know what can happen where.
Wow, this is amazing. One debate and one poll and some of you are already helping Kerry move into the Whitehouse.
Sure, I would have loved to see the President coast back to re-election, but I am not one to fool myself. Did some of you honestly think the race wouldn't tighten this month? Did you fool yourself into thinking the Kerry campaign wasn't going to put up a fight? Do you think the Bush campaign isn't going to do everything they can to ensure re-election?
Really, some of you need to put the bong and razor blades away. This last month is going to be the toughest of Bush's political life. Stop whining! Our political enemies are reading your words. You hand-wringers embarass me. This is no time to go limp.
I saw the OWF family behind the President today. Y'all looked great!!!! What an honor to be directly behind W. I look forward to your report.
So they're saying they polled the LEFT COAST late on Thursday, in addition to polling on Saturday MORNING???
Newsweek is also the poll that had Kerry +7 (7/29-30) and Bush +11 (9/2-3).
Sorry, I just don't buy this. Extremely flawed sampling. Newsweek must know and wants to sell some magazines.
Yes it is. A collection of newbie trolls, sleeper trolls, and stealth disrupters. Add to that the pessimistic posters and it makes for one sorry thread.
My dad traded airline miles for 5 years worth of magazine subscriptions a few years back and gave them to all us kids. I got Newsweek.
It goes from the mailbox to the garbage can.
Hopefully I've only go another year or so left.
That's funny, I could have sworn I've heard here to take Rasmussen with a grain of salt. Personally, I wouldn't know.
I tend to disagree. Read the polls numbers more closely. Kerry's performance energized his base or energized Newsweek's sampling of Democrats, whichever you might think it is. We would need more polls in order to see whether more people identifying themselves as Dems is a trend or an outlier.
Having run for election a couple of times (Mayor - won, state senate - lost) and having been the campaign manager for several campaigns including a congressional campaign, I speak with some history when I say that a poor performance in a debate or an interview doesn't always mean there is some sort of evil conspiracy lurking to sabotage things.
People do get sick, exhausted, overwhelmed, etc. Consider that Bush is basically working two jobs at the moment - being president AND campaigning to be president. The man is approaching 60 years old, is the leader of the free world and is also campaigning non stop. He just got done with a days worth of comforting people who lost everything to multiple hurricanes.
Granted, I think it was probably poor timing to have him involved with that the day of the debate - but I'm sure there were plenty of campaign management types debating whether it was worse to cancel a trip to view hurricane damage or to risk having Bush tired for the debate.
If I were the campaign manager, I honestly would have chosen the same schedule for the president. Florida is too important - even if just for symbolism by winning it - to pass on such an important time to genuinely comfort people and to get a decent photo op in the process.
Bush had a slow night. It wasn't a knock out but it wasn't a blowout for him either. Take your energy and focus it into getting Bush elected. Call family and friends and make sure they are registered. Donate money, time on phone banks, distribute literature, stick a sign in your yard and then pray like mad.
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