Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Drudge has more detail now.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm
First of all, NOTE:
It's REGISTERED voters, not likely voters.
"among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows. "
Second of all, look at this -- Bush is still leading in important national security issues, which the debate was all about:
"As for who will handle issues better overall, among registered voters Bush leads Kerry 52 to 40 percent on terrorism and homeland security; the situation in Iraq (49% vs. 44%); the situation involving Israel and the Palestinians (46% vs. 39%) and controlling the spread of nuclear weapons (47% v. 43%). Kerry scores better on the economy (52% vs. 39%); health care, including Medicare (56% to 34%) and American jobs and foreign competition (54% vs. 36%), the poll shows. "
Then there are some oddities (more r. voters say Kerry is honest):
"Overall, 62 percent say Bush has strong leadership qualities (compared to 56% who say so for Kerry). Sixty-six percent say Bush says what he believes, not just what people want to hear, compared to 48 percent for Kerry. Sixty-five percent say Bush is personally likeable (63% say so for Kerry). But more registered voters (57%) say Kerry is honest and ethical (vs. 55% for Bush); the same amount (51%) says they would trust Kerry to make the right decisions during an international crisis as would trust Bush (51%); and more (57%) say Kerry cares about people like them (vs. 49% for Bush). And 80 percent of registered voters say Kerry is intelligent and well informed, compared to 59 percent for Bush. "
Not too bad, basically the race is tightening (which was going to happen anyway). So Kerry picks up a couple of points from this debate. So in a three way race 2 down from 5. But I do fine that the head on head numbers are strong for Bush.
So all you come down from the ledge, and come back to the club.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1232176/posts
Check out this. So how do you explain this? Newsweek says lead gone, Gallup/CNN say debates didn't budget people? Which is correct?
So rather then hyperventalating, maybe we should hold off on the "OH THIS IS BAD NEWS" "This is all Bush's fault" panic attacks
I noticed that 38% too. LOL
Mark my words, this will turn out to be a liability for Kerry quite soon. You can feed me to a plastic woodchipper feet first if I'm wrong.
I think a lot of people will watch the Edwards/Cheany debate, in which I am confident that Cheany will whip his ass. Hopefully this will give Bush back a few points. Bush's next townhall debate really scares me, you know the deck will be stacked with a bunch of college kids pretending to be undecided, sounds like an ambush in the making.
Well, there are two more debates. Reagan lost his first debate with Mondale too (of course he had an overwhelming lead anyhow). Bush needs to win the next one, or at least pull out a clear draw, because if he loses it things might start looking grim.
Part of his problem IMO is that Republicans were caught totally flat-footed in the post-debate spin. I really don't get that since there was so much pre-debate talk about post-debate spin, but it seems to have taken a day or so to regroup and by then the cycle had run away.
The second debate is on a Friday night, though, so that may well diminish its impact (I wonder whose idea that scheduling was). The third debate on a Wednesday night will almost certainly be the more crucial of the remaining two.
That's assuming no one delivers The Zinger in the second one.
A weekend poll? I would like to see the internals.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,013 registered voters on Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2004.
registered voters
registered voters
registered voters
agree 100%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1232176/posts
Check out this. So how do you explain this? Newsweek says lead gone, Gallup/CNN say debates didn't budget people? Which is correct?
So rather then hyperventalating, maybe we should hold off on the "OH THIS IS BAD NEWS" "This is all Bush's fault" panic attacks
Are you Dan Rather? COURAGE, COURAGE, COURAGE, COURAGE
don't blame his handlers....last i looked he is an adult male who happens to be president of the united states. it was his umms, uhhhs, ahhhs, and various facial ticks that did him in. he looked like he didn't want to there, which isn't very presidential if he wants to be reelected.
he also kept repeating the same phrases. i don't know what the problem was but he was bad. let's hope he practices for the next one.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1232176/posts
Check out this. So how do you explain this? Newsweek says lead gone, Gallup/CNN say debates didn't budget people? Which is correct?
So rather then hyperventalating, maybe we should hold off on the "OH THIS IS BAD NEWS" "This is all Bush's fault" panic attacks
NewsWeak, I don't think so.
I've seen a few snap polls that contradict all your numbers. 51% say Kerry better command of facts and issues?? LOL!
6% more say Kerry's leftists policies views reflect their own??
Somebody throw up the BullSh!! flag.
given all the potential fraud and new resigestering going on, I think RV polls might be more accurate than LV now.
The Minneapolis Star and Tribune has Kerry up in Minnesota by a margin of 112% for Kerry to -3.6% for Bush. They did say, though, that the race is tightening.
Factor No. 1 the MSM is desperate for anything to promote Kerry because he is their fair haired boy.
Factor No.2 AND THE MOST IMPORTANT!!! SHOWING THE RACE TIGHTENING UP IMPROVES RATINGS AND THAT MEANS $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ FOR THEM!!!
Polls after Bush's first debate with Gore were even worse for W so take it with a grain of salt.
Also on the good side this should wake up any complacent Republicans to make sure they vote and get out the vote.
Very good point my friend. Polls of registered only are crap.
I also saw some internals from Gallup that suggested that although Kerry "won" the debate, GWB creamed him on who is "tough enough" to be president.
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