Ground Game-Kerry Campaign Adds Dozens of Staffers in WI, NM, IA..Bush Reinforces CO & Maine

ABC News ^ | 9/28/04 | Marc Halperin

[gopwinsin04]

Every strategic decision the Kerry campaign makes today is based on the unforgiving mathmatics of the Electoral College. All that matters now in 270, and make no mistake--the Kerry margin for error at this point is pretty small.

There just arent many plausible combinations of states that can get him to the Electoral Promised Land--which means that almost any state he can win at this point he must win.

To help, the Kerry campaign plans to direct several dozen staffers to Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico. Regional press secretaries will also take up shop.

In fact, within the next week and a half, as many as ten states will see an influx of party resources. Florida will have more than 140 full time staffers from Kerry, DNC and state party operations.

The Republicans are putting some extra folks in Colorado and Maine, the former because they want a full GOTV program for all races on the ticket, and in Maine because BC04 is quite competitve there.

Various theories abound on Kerry's Iowa problem:

'Voters just do not like John Kerry,' 'Kerry has visited Des Moines too many times,' 'The farm economy is pretty good,' but Democrats in and out of the state say there is no reason, given what they think is their superior ground game, why Kerry should not be at least tied there.

Let us also explicitly add the obvious- without Ohio or Florida in Kerry's column, he will most likely not be taking the oath of office on the west steps of the Capitol next January.

[gopwinsin04]

Looking good, if Maine is in play!

[bahblahbah]

Football Fans For Truth should start running advertisements during Packers games.

[gopwinsin04]

Same for Ohio Buckeye Fans for Truth..

[Coop]

Competitive in Maine - gotta love it!

[petitfour]

They have added campaign workers to tote all the newly registered voters to vote in place of the dead and moved away and never lived there. After all, their motto is: Every VOTE must count.

[68skylark]

In 1998 and 2000, Democrats did about 5 points better on election day than they polls said they should have -- that's huge. They simply had a better "get out the vote" program.

The GOP is trying to fix the problem. The effort paid off in 2002. I hope that 2004 is even better.

[KellyAdmirer]

The battle is in Gore states. The liberals have only one hope, that President Bush stumbles in the debates (or they can make it look like he does). I doubt it happens.

[gopwinsin04]

Newsmax says Iowa has something like 120,000 absentee ballots out already..

[Asclepius]

Voters just do not like John Kerry,' 'Kerry has visited Des Moines too many times,' 'The farm economy is pretty good,' but Democrats in and out of the state say there is no reason, given what they think is their superior ground game, why Kerry should not be at least tied there.

There is no good reason why Kerry should not be the all powerful lord-god-king of all that has shape or form or substance--he is, after all, a Democrat.

[gopwinsin04]

I like the proactive move for GOTV in Colorado, that is where we have trailed in the past..

[quantim]

Sigh, MI is not yet in play. (Shhhh, the dems think they've got a wrap-up here so they won't show up.)

[gopwinsin04]

Kerry was campaigning in inner city Detroit a while back, a good sign..

[gopwinsin04]

LA Times says BC04 may opt out of the town hall format debate becuase of the non signed agreement..

[gopwinsin04]

You have to remember that this is the morning bulletin of the media elite..

[Coop]

In 1998 and 2000, Democrats did about 5 points better on election day than they polls said they should have -- that's huge.

Where did you get that from? I recall polls showing a dead even race in 2000 - that's what we got. And I recall polls showing the Dems closing fast in 1998 - though I can't recall what the final polls were showing in terms of points (plus or minus).

[gopwinsin04]

I think the mnost of the final polls in 2000 had Bush up by 1-2 points, basically margin for error dead heat.. Zogby called it even

[TNCMAXQ]

MI may yet be in play. One poll they mentioned last night on Fox has Kerry up by only 2 there. It was a major polling firm too. I can't remember if it was Gallup, or perhaps Opinion Dynamics.

This article refers to the magic 270 number but the Repubs should aim for 274 to be their absolute minimum. If CO votes to go with a proportional system, Mr Bush can only count on 5 votes from that state, with Kerry perhaps taking 4 if the vote is close.

[quantim]

MI is a big secret it seems. Very few polls like in other states considering the size. We believe the Bush groups are keeping a low profile but the President is still coming here almost every week. I suggest the internals say MI is within the margin of error that's why they keep working it by appearances and ads.

We also have the gay marriage ban on the ballot. The conservative base is motivated. So it will be about turnout. If the weather is rainy or snowing the lazy dems will stay home (in spite of the cheaters) and the conservative base WILL turn out to defeat the big cities and have a Bush victory here.

But we're not talking much about it (just like the Bush campaign) as to let the dems think they have it and their complacency will do them in.

[LS]

For what it's worth, at MINIMUM Bush will get one Maine EV.