The concern derived from the recent Kerry tactic change to make it all about Iraq. The value of polls is watching for trends. We have to watch carefully for lead erosion.
Watch? I say we have to work like heck to increase whatever lead we have. The left is mobilized. We need to get out the vote.
I was a little concerned about today too. Bush had 2 good nights in a row at the begining of the week. One rolled off last night, and the other rolled off today. Doing my math, which I don't claim to be correct. Bush's last 3 nights are 48.6, 45.8. 49.3. Kerry's are 47.3, 47.0, and 44.6. Kerry had a good night on Thursday which rill roll off in Monday's samples. Bush had a pretty good night last night. Based on how Rasmussen does his samples, I'm predicting that the next 2 days should probably stay right where they are, then by the middle of next week, Bush should be back up in the 49's again.
Tricky to do with one poll. I look at realclearpolitics.com for trends. That takes an aggrate of polls and gives the spread for the national polls.
If bush can hold all of the stats he held last time, no way Kerry wins--Combine this with the fact that bush is taking on kerry in blue states that gore won in 2k, and the scorached earth campaign that kerry is now waging and one cannot help feeling good about bush. If bush does okay in the first debate, it's over for kerry. It's written all over the Kerry campaign. I think that if we find a provable link between CBS and dems, Kerry may have trouble bringing home his own state.
Bottom line, vote on Nov 2.
Good article:
"...Kerry is behind nationally by a few percent, but he is also behind in every red state, as well as in a few battleground blue states. And in several blue states that were not considered to be battlegrounds, Bush is running even with Kerry: New Jersey, and Maryland to name two. Bush is now ahead in states with over 300 Electoral College votes. Most importantly, the Bush lead in the states likely to decide the race is widening. "
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=3869
Time and Newsweek, I believe, skew their polls for desired political effect. Zogby has just flat gone Rat since 2000. Gallup seems pretty solid, and Mason-Dixon is good in state polls. Rassmussen seems to have just decided that they'll keep it a few points either way so they don't get embarassed again.
If Bush is close in Jersey and actually leading Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Iowa, I don't see any way it's a tight race nationwide. Of course, pollsters seldom do representative polling of dead people, dogs and invisible six foot rabbits. This constituency turns out in droves on election day, and is overwhelmingly Democratic.
We have to shoot for a six point win. There was little fraud in Texas in 2000, except in local races, because the Rats can't reasonably fraud out more than 1%-2% of the total vote. They don't bother committing fraud if the race is over 5% to the Republican because they just can't manufacture that many fraudulent votes. We have to have Bush up by 8 by election day if we want to avoid the lawsuits and the dead vote. I think Bush is leading by seven, which means in fraud terms that the race is dead even.
About four or five national polls came out the last two days showing Bush with a lead of around 6-9 points, which is where I think the race really is. Even Rasmussen sent up a warning flag that the poll results yesterday might have been statistical noise, which pretty much describes most of his poll results to begin with.
Having said that, I'm wondering how Kerry's truly disgraceful statements this week are playing with the electorate. I'm sure that he is firing up his loony left base, but what effect is he having on the rest of us? I know in my own case that my primary reaction is one of complete personal digust about a candidate that goes beyond anything I have experienced for decades.
Two points eh? Please Mr. Rasmussen, tell me the state or states where frenchie is doing sooooo well that he's only two points behind Bush nationally. What state has seen the big revival of frenchie's fortunes? Where is he even leading by double digets in every single poll? Oh yes I forgot Delaware and Conn. and Mass and a few others. Are these the states? Puleeeeeeeeezeeeeee!!!!
The slip is probably due to the fear of the draft that Kerry campaign is trying to entice young voters with... That is why I think it is imperative that FOX do a special report about the draft... Show the 14 Democratic representatives that have brought forth the re-instatement intiative. Let Kerry defend his own base with this information. Kerry even went so far as to say that a draft could not be ruled out under a Kerry administration. Bush and Rumsfeld have made it perfectly clear a draft is not required nor desired and there are high retention levels in the military right now... However, a Kerry administration may erode the morale of the troops... i.e., pulling out early, fighting a losing battle etc, etc... If the morale eroded Kerry would be forced to implement a draft to keep military end strength levels .... Tommy Franks and Mcain should be brought in to chime in on the draft issue...
I am concerned about Rasmussen. I have noticed several times, the most recent being yesterday, he said he would be releasing a state poll later in the day and it never happens. Yesterday he said he would release Nevada. I just checked his site and there have been no polls done in Nevada since Aug. 17! Like I said, this is not the first time Rasmussen said he would release a toss up state poll and doesn't.
It seems if the avg. polling results (real clear politics) is showing a lead of 5 or more for Bush in a toss up state, Rasmussen delays polling and putting that state's electoral votes in the Bush column.
Anyone else noticing this?
I wouldnt be concenred about anything in this poll.
It has officially been declared useless. There is obviously some smoothing done to ensure neither candidate gets a large lead.
as we approach the election I will be following TRADESPORTS, Iowa Electronic Markets and Gallup.
I predict Scott will be out of the polling business on Nov 3rd.