Numerical Analysis: CBS News polls - May to September, 2004.

CBS News ^ | September 23, 2004 | dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last seven CBS News presidential preference polls, including the September 20-22 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each CBS News poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the CBS News polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results for comparison purposes only.

[dvwjr]

Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last seven CBS News presidential preference polls, including the September 20-22 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each CBS News poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the CBS News polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results for comparison purposes only.

CBS  News  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont  Vote	Depends	Do  not  know
All  polls  Registered  Voters
May  20-23,  2004	100.0%	29.0%	34.0%	37.0%	883  RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.21%	0.68%	1.59%	0.57%	4.87%
July  11-15,  2004	100.0%	27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789  RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July  30  -  August  1,  2004	100.0%	35.3%	37.5%	27.1%	837  RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August  15-18,  20004	100.0%	36.4%	39.6%	24.0%	792  RV	45.08%	46.46%	1.01%	0.13%	0.63%	1.01%	5.68%
September  6-8,  2004	100.0%	34.4%	37.7%	27.9%	889  RV	48.71%	42.41%	1.35%	0.34%	0.67%	1.01%	5.51%
September  12-16,  2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.2%	28.0%	1,048  RV	49.90%	40.55%	2.96%	0.38%	1.15%	1.05%	4.01%
September  20-22,  2004	100.0%	36.0%	37.0%	27.1%	898  RV	49.44%	41.31%	2.23%	0.33%	1.34%	1.00%	4.34%
July  11-15  minus  July  30-August  1,  2004		8.1%	3.3%	-11.4%		0.94%	3.14%	-2.21%	-0.37%	-0.90%	-0.33%	-0.28%
CBS  News  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	2.20%
September  6-8  minus  August  15-18		-1.9%	-2.0%	3.9%		3.63%	-4.06%	0.34%	0.21%	0.04%	0.00%	-0.17%
CBS  News  Bush  Convention  Bounce:	7.69%

CBS News
Internal partisan affiliation breakdowns

									Year  2000  Presidential  weighting
									Republican	Democrat	Independent
									VNS  calculated  exit  data
									34.37%	38.86%	26.77%
			35.97%	36.97%	27.06%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	89.00%	14.00%	45.00%	Bush:	49.00%			48.15%
09/22/04		Favor  Kerry	8.00%	76.00%	39.00%	Kerry:	41.00%			42.51%
MOE  ±3.0%		Favor  Nader	0.00%	3.00%	4.00%	Nader:	2.00%			2.27%
898  Registered		Other	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			7.07%
		Wont  Vote	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	Wont  Vote	1.00%			100.0%
		Depends	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	Depends	1.00%
		Do  not  know:	1.00%	5.00%	8.00%	Do  not  know:	4.00%
			100%	100%	100%		98%
			38.84%	33.21%	27.96%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	87.00%	11.00%	45.00%	Bush:	50.00%			46.13%
09/16/04		Favor  Kerry	7.00%	83.00%	37.00%	Kerry:	41.00%			44.50%
MOE  ±3.0%		Favor  Nader	2.00%	2.00%	6.00%	Nader:	3.00%			2.93%
1,048  Registered		Other	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			6.44%
		Wont  Vote	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	Wont  Vote	1.00%			100.0%
		Depends	1.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Depends	1.00%
		Do  not  know:	2.00%	3.00%	8.00%	Do  not  know:	4.00%
			100%	100%	100%		100%
			34.42%	37.68%	27.90%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	91.00%	11.00%	48.00%	Bush:	49.00%			48.25%
09/08/04		Favor  Kerry	4.00%	81.00%	39.00%	Kerry:	42.00%			42.92%
MOE  ±4.0%		Favor  Nader	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	Nader:	1.00%			1.34%
889  Registered		Other	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			7.49%
		Wont  Vote	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	Wont  Vote	1.00%			100.0%
		Depends	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	Depends	1.00%
		Do  not  know:	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	Do  not  know:	6.00%
			100%	100%	100%		100%
			36.36%	39.65%	23.99%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	90.00%	8.00%	39.00%	Bush:	45.00%			44.33%
08/18/04		Favor  Kerry	6.00%	86.00%	44.00%	Kerry:	46.00%			46.90%
MOE  ±4.0%		Favor  Nader	0.00%	0.00%	4.00%	Nader:	1.00%			1.13%
792  Registered		Other	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			7.65%
		Wont  Vote	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	Wont  Vote	1.00%			100.0%
		Depends	1.00%	0.00%	2.00%	Depends	1.00%
		Do  not  know:	3.00%	5.00%	9.00%	Do  not  know:	6.00%
			100%	100%	100%		100%
			35.34%	37.54%	27.12%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	88.00%	7.00%	33.00%	Bush:	43.00%			41.64%
08/01/04		Favor  Kerry	9.00%	85.00%	50.00%	Kerry:	48.00%			49.25%
MOE  ±4.0%		Favor  Nader	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	Nader:	3.00%			2.98%
837  Registered		Other	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			6.14%
		Wont  Vote	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			100.0%
		Depends	0.00%	2.00%	2.00%	Other/UnDec	1.00%
		Do  not  know:	2.00%	4.00%	7.00%	Do  not  know:	5.00%
			100%	100%	100%		100%
			27.25%	34.22%	38.53%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	83.00%	7.00%	42.00%	Bush:	42.00%			42.85%
07/15/04		Favor  Kerry	6.00%	79.00%	44.00%	Kerry:	45.00%			44.14%
MOE  ±4.0%		Favor  Nader	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	Nader:	5.00%			4.98%
789  Registered		Other	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	0.00%			8.02%
		Wont  Vote	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	Other/UnDec	1.00%			100.0%
		Depends	4.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	2.00%
		Do  not  know:	2.00%	8.00%	4.00%	Do  not  know:	5.00%
			100%	100%	100%		100%
			28.99%	33.98%	37.03%
Poll  Information		Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll  Numbers		Adjusted  Numbers
CBS  News		Favor  Bush	83.00%	12.00%	33.00%	Bush:	41.00%			42.23%
05/23/04		Favor  Kerry	9.00%	78.00%	47.00%	Kerry:	47.00%			45.96%
MOE  ±4.0%		Favor  Nader	3.00%	2.00%	10.00%	Nader:	5.00%			4.42%
883  Registered		Other	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	1.00%			7.39%
		Wont  Vote	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	Other/UnDec	2.00%			100.0%
		Depends	0.00%	0.00%	1.00%	Other/UnDec	1.00%
		Do  not  know:	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	Do  not  know:	3.00%
			100%	100%	100%		100%

Source: CBS News poll, September 20-22, 2004

Source: CBS News poll, September 12-16, 2004

Source: CBS News poll, September 6-8, 2004

Source: CBS News poll, August 15-18, 2004

Source: CBS News poll, July 30 - August 1, 2004

Source: CBS News poll, July 11-15, 2004

Source: CBS News poll, May 20-23, 2004

I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.

Hope this helps...

dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Poll ping.


dvwjr

[BillM]

Note the much higher percentage of Dems in the last poll with barely an uptick overall!

[KellyAdmirer]

Nice work. From this and Fox Dynamics breakdown, I notice that Independents appear to have made a major switch toward the President since mid-August. Republican support of the President appears much more solid than Democrat support of Kerry. Trends are good. This election may have wound up being decided in August, just like 1992 was decided in July.

[Mike Fieschko]

Not knowing polling techniques, I don't see the point in going from 29.0% to 27.3% to 35.3% to 36.4% to 34.4% to 38.8% to 36.0% Republicans.

Do polling companies start with a target number of people in a sample, then break down the per centages after the fact, or do they start by setting a per centage of each affiliation they want to be in the sample (hope I'm phrasing that clearly), or do something else?

[dvwjr]

The short answer is the sample is gathered according to the guidelines set down by the polling firm. The variances are due usually due to the fluctuations in the sample. If you see a 'smooth' trend in the R/D/I breakdowns, then that usually means that a predetermined R/D/I model is being applied to the sample...


Oversimplified, but quick answer.


dvwjr

[thoughtomator]

Very interesting... the 9/16 result looks like a left-leaning outlier, giving the President about a 6 point lead nationally, one that held at least two weeks (since 9/8).

Events possibly influencing those numbers include:
• the Islamic crusade in Russia culminating in synchronized airline hijackings, subway bombings, and child massacre (9/4 to...?
• Ra^thergate
• 9/11 memorials
• President's UN speech
• ???

There's a lot of stuff...

[expatpat]

They have included a higher percentage of Republicans in recent polls. Are they goosing the Bush score up now so that they can show a trend to Kerry late in October?

[Mike Darancette]

This is a very good poll for Bush since there are more Democrats polled than Republicans this time.

[Darkwolf377]

Thanks for this. Does your analysis give you any confidence to make a prediction at this point? It seems that the trend toward Bush was long and slow, and it seems to me that people are secure in that decision and unlikely to turn from it late in the game, barring whatever dirty trick the Dems attempt. Perosnally, I think it's more--not less--likely that a downturn in Iraq will hurt Bush...but I don't know how much. Kerry is proving to have NO plan for Iraq...or anything else.

[dvwjr]

My personal belief is that Bush will win.

However, the reason I try to take a look a the polls and their internals is to see when they all start going in the same direction. For example, the last Newsweek/PSRAI poll dated September 9-10 and the Gallup poll dated September 13-15 show that Kerry is favored by at least 6% point among the Independents, ABC News/WaPost have Kerry by 2% points, but all the other polls have Bush favored by the Independents. Now this is the same national poll from which their registered voter samples are drawn, but the Independent portion varies where the Rep/Dem portions track fairly well.

The next two polls from all the organizations will tell the tale...


dvwjr

[Darkwolf377]

"Now this is the same national poll from which their registered voter samples are drawn, but the Independent portion varies where the Rep/Dem portions track fairly well."

I'm starting to think the election won't depend as much on indies as the MSM seem to think, but on turnout. Sure, that's an easy thing to say, and everyone says it. But I think most analysts pass over it on their way to more interesting internals.

I'm taking a leap here, based on no evidence, just an instinct, that the dislike of Bush is negated in many independents by the lack of enthusiasm for Kerry.

I think Bush's base truly believes that if he loses, catastrophy will follow. I don't think Kerry supporters are convinced that if Kerry wins things will change for the better.

Merely a theory, but the internals for Kerry in that WSJ poll were unbelievable--no one has an idea what the guy is going to do.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Great stuff!

Thank you!

[TomEwall]

No. More people are self-identifying themselves as Republicans. Companies like Gallup and others who do not adjust show a big lead for Bush. Companies like Rasmussen, which are assuming a fixed party stratification, are showing a closer race.

[TomEwall]

It's interesting that CBS is showing both a more believable (conv. bounce for Kerry about 2%, for Bush about 7%) and favorable than Fox (which showed a stronger conv. bounce for Kerry than for Bush).

[expatpat]

But going from 29% to 36% in 4 months is hard to believe!