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NBC POLL - SMALL LEAD FOR BUSH (Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll, Bush 50, Kerry 46 LV)
National Review Online ^ | 9/22/04 | National Review

Posted on 09/22/2004 3:24:31 PM PDT by njsketch

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To: TJC

Your analysis for optimum results in the election match mine. I doubt strongly that Bush will lose any state that he won in 2000. (I think that even FL will go red.) I also think that Bush may eke out some blue states from Kerry. Possibly, PA. This is getting very exciting. But best to play like we are down.


21 posted on 09/22/2004 4:09:08 PM PDT by camboianchristmas (when two or more or gathered in His name...great things happen)
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To: camboianchristmas

"But best to play like we are down."
Right up to Nov. 2 7:00 Pacific Time.


22 posted on 09/22/2004 4:11:40 PM PDT by TJC
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To: AlexPKeaton04
There's still a lot of time for things to shift---remember, we're talking just 3-4 point swings give us Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and a 5-point swing brings in New Jersey and Washington.

By "a lot of time," I honestly think this swings only one way---in Bush's favor. I'm convinced that barring a total unforeseen meltdown of the Bush campaign, he wins. The question now is whether Kerry can keep it competitive or whether thelemmings start dropping off the cliff, taking some senate seats with them.

23 posted on 09/22/2004 4:14:33 PM PDT by LS
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To: AmericanInTokyo
With all due respect, if you are in Tokyo, you don't know what the hell we are doing over here. NO ONE is "sitting around" watching things happen. You ought to see the mailings I get; the effort on the ground. Have I done all I can? No, not yet, but I have volunteered for both Oct. 30 walks and for election day walks to distribute lit.

Here in OH, just looking at bumperstickers, I counted (and I'm pretty judicious about this) 152 Bush, 51 Kerry/Hate Bush. I don't count the "God Bless the Troops" or "United We Stand," of which there are HUNDREDS and I'm sure that 75% of them are Bush voters. In short, we are working, and the POLLS reflect that work.

24 posted on 09/22/2004 4:17:44 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS

Who here thinks Bill Clinton released the fact of the 90 minute panic call after the RNC Convention? Who here thinks Bill's top operatives set up the phony CBS story, knowing it'd be noticed fast.

Does anyone think they will further sabotage Hanoi John? I do. Wait till the debates when the Clintonite team has Kerry rehearsed to lose; e.g., coming out against social security privatization on the grounds that it provides a multi billion $ "windfall" to portfolio managers, at which time ole dumbo Bush points out that if the commissions are in the billions, imagine how much that means for us viewers. Lurch smiles, starts to sweat, etc.

The final Clinton/Gambino plant will be when they leak out Kerry's not having received an honorable discharge within 25 years of active service.

By the time Bill and Hill are done, all that's left for them to do is kill Giuliani.


25 posted on 09/22/2004 4:38:54 PM PDT by jschwartz
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To: jschwartz

Except for the "kill Guliani" part, I sure hope you're right. I tend to see less conspiracy in these things than you do, though . . . but it's not beyond reason to think that the Clintons would torpedo Francois. My only question is . . . is he THAT stupid not only to keep them around but to actually INCREASE their power after these episodes?


26 posted on 09/22/2004 4:51:50 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS

My guess is he thinks he can win in spite of the rivalry. He's been writing his own resume and doing nothing with such great success (economic and political) for so long; that breeds confidence, I suppose.


27 posted on 09/22/2004 4:57:46 PM PDT by jschwartz
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To: AKSurprise
I'm predicting a landslide for Bush, Kerry will win 7 states at most!

ME TOO. I think after Zell's speech being so successful at the convention, Bush will go into the debates with his 6-Guns a'Blazin' !

28 posted on 09/22/2004 5:00:40 PM PDT by IDontLikeToPayTaxes
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To: TJC

No, you're wrong, very wrong. We have to be fighting until roughly 2 or 3 Pacific Time because we have to win that Alaska Senate seat.


29 posted on 09/22/2004 5:09:27 PM PDT by republicanwizard
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To: njsketch

On NBC News tonight, Russert only gave the 48-45 Bush (RV), not the 50-46 Bush (LIKELY VOTERS). Hummmmmm!


30 posted on 09/22/2004 5:14:57 PM PDT by nightowl
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To: Carling

This was suppose to be the big poll that showed Kerry had pulled back to even that ABC had hinted abuot on "The Note." LOL. What a joke.


31 posted on 09/22/2004 6:42:46 PM PDT by Nascardude
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To: republicanwizard

Yes, that is a must win.


32 posted on 09/22/2004 8:32:36 PM PDT by TJC
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To: Nascardude
This was suppose to be the big poll that showed Kerry had pulled back to even that ABC had hinted abuot on "The Note." LOL. What a joke.

While we would love for this poll to show a bigger lead, it is very encouraging to know that this result is better than the results of this same poll in months past. It is not a slide in this particular poll, it is a peak.

Also, some internals of the poll indicate that most people (54%) don't know what Kerry would do if he was elected. Only 36% of respondents believe that they know what Kerry would do if elected. It REALLY makes you wonder how Kerry could have polled higher than 36%... why would ANYBODY indicate that they would vote for someone if they don't even know what the person would do if elected? This makes me think they have really applied some sauce in the final results to get Kerry up to 45%.
33 posted on 09/22/2004 9:07:30 PM PDT by AaronInCarolina
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To: AmericanInTokyo
AMERICANINTOKYO WROTE: "Bush could still lose it believe it or not, but by a slim margin. Remember Kerry six weeks ago? The mental trick is to enjoy these polls, but then in one's mind subtract 10 to 15 points from them for Bush, and then get scared again, and then run like there is no way to win it except pull out all the stops."

AMERICANINTOKYO ADDED: "With that mindset, KERRY IS STILL AHEAD!!!"

EXACTLY!!! I lost becomming the Bush Elector four years ago because 40 Delegates in the U. S. District Caucus left early thinking I was a shoo-in. I lost by 12 votes out of an original 164 Delegates present before the 40 left without voting first.

That experience really DRILLED it into my mind that EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!! We MUST constantly think in terms of being at least 5 points behind.

This year, I did NOT take ANYTHING for granted! I worked like I was behind and as if I had at least one opponent (I had been told by someone they were planning to run also). In the end, after working like a dog for votes, I ended up being elected unanimously.

BOTTOM LINE: Work like we need EVERY vote! With RATS voting from the dead, we DO!

34 posted on 09/22/2004 9:23:24 PM PDT by Concerned
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To: LS

You rock! Thanks for the effort.


35 posted on 09/22/2004 9:45:25 PM PDT by camboianchristmas (when two or more or gathered in His name...great things happen)
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To: jschwartz

mega dittos lol


36 posted on 09/22/2004 9:48:50 PM PDT by camboianchristmas (when two or more or gathered in His name...great things happen)
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To: njsketch

Bush Bounce to the top!


37 posted on 09/22/2004 9:49:36 PM PDT by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Concerned
Exactly.

("PT") Premature Triumphalism MUST be eliminted from Free Republic!

I tell you, it will be the death of us yet!

It is rampant here. It really is beginning to disturb me.

38 posted on 09/23/2004 6:33:41 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo ( MSM is the nanny watchdog of everyone/everything; yet they explode w/rage when THEY are audited.)
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To: LS
Fine. Archived.

If Bush loses, your post will be one of the first ones I post.

Run Scared.

Run Often.

Reject "PT" (Premature Triumphalism).

39 posted on 09/23/2004 6:36:05 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo ( MSM is the nanny watchdog of everyone/everything; yet they explode w/rage when THEY are audited.)
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To: hole_n_one

Let me guess, Chrissy on Softball went on to talk about how the race is tightening and how its a close horse race? He is so full of it. This is the closest poll I have seen and Bush is carrying the swing states now.


40 posted on 09/23/2004 6:52:36 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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