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RCP Electoral Count Tuesday, September 21: Bush 284 - Kerry 200
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Solid Bush
(176)
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Leaning Bush
(108)
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Toss Up
(54)
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Leaning Kerry
(47)
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Solid Kerry
(153)
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AL (9)
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AR (6)
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IA (7)
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ME (4)
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CA (55)
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AK (3)
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CO (9)
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MN (10)
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MI (17)
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CT (7)
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AZ (10)
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FL (27)
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NH (4)
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NJ (15)
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DE (3)
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GA (15)
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MO (11)
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NM (5)
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WA (11)
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HI (4)
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ID (4)
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NV (5)
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OR (7)
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IL (21)
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IN (11)
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NC (15)
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PA (21)
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MD (10)
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KS (6)
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OH (20)
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MA (12)
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KY (8)
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WV (5)
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NY (31)
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LA (9)
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WI (10)
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RI (4)
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MS (6)
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VT (3)
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MT (3)
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DC (3)
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NE (5)
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ND (3)
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OK (7)
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SC (8)
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SD (3)
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TN (11)
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TX (34)
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UT (5)
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VA (13)
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WY (3)
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Bush Total = 284
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Toss Up = 54
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Kerry Total = 200
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2000 Results in 2004 EV's: After reapportionment, keeping the states the same as 2000 gives Bush 278 electoral votes and Kerry 260 electoral votes. 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win. So, in order to win Kerry has to flip 10 Electoral Votes and hold all of the Gore states. (Because ties are split by the House of Representatives Bush can probably win with 269 EVs) In a simplified analysis, Bush has to win both FL and OH to win. Kerry simply has to win either FL or OH. If Kerry does not win either FL or OH, he has very little chance of becoming President. Without one of these two states Kerry can get to 268/269 by winning NH and NV, but to get over 270 he will have to carry either WV or MO. It is hard to imagine Kerry losing OH, but winning MO or WV. Bush needs to win both FL-27 and OH-20, but if he were to lose one of the two he has a small chance of picking up the lost EV's by winning some combination of either WI-10, NM-5, MN-10, IA-7 and OR-7 (and also denying Kerry pickups in NV and NH). Unlike Kerry's second-chance scenario, Bush could conceivably lose OH and still hold on to the Presidency by flipping WI and NM and holding on to NV. If Kerry loses PA or MI he loses. If Bush loses any one of AZ, CO, TN or AR he loses. |
Battleground State Polls - RCP Average
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Poll | Date
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Bush
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Kerry
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Nader
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Spread
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48.4
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46.2
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1.8
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Bush +2.2
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50.3
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43.0
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2.0
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Bush +7.3
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47.0
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45.5
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2.5
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Bush +1.5
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43.0
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48.3
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1.7
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Kerry +5.3
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50.0
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42.5
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1.0
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Bush +7.5
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49.0
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45.0
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1.0
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Bush +4.0
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45.3
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45.3
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2.7
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TIE
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49.0
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43.0
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2.0
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Bush +6.0
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47.0
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45.5
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3.0
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Bush +1.5
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50.5
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46.0
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1.0
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Bush +4.5
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47.1
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42.1
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2.1
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Bush +5.0
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46.0
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42.5
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1.5
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Bush +3.5
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46.0
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45.0
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1.5
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Bush +1.0
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45.5
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44.5
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3.0
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Bush +1.0
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43.5
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45.5
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3.5
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Kerry +2.0
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44.3
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50.0
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1.3
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Kerry +5.7
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45.3
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45.3
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2.0
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TIE
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Home...
1 posted on
09/21/2004 9:27:28 PM PDT by
COURAGE
To: COURAGE
Looks like Zognuts is the outlier this time around. Wonder why.
2 posted on
09/21/2004 9:29:27 PM PDT by
SBprone
To: Graybeard58; Zechariah11; jveritas
Hey guys, disCOURAGE is reduced to using Zogsauce's Interactive Polls.
3 posted on
09/21/2004 9:29:31 PM PDT by
COEXERJ145
(Hannity Was Right, FReepers Tend To Eat Their Own)
To: COURAGE
Zogby can't report honest results, it would interrupt his main revenue stream (DNC).
4 posted on
09/21/2004 9:30:12 PM PDT by
Petronski
(What did Terri McAuliffe know and when did she know it?)
To: COURAGE
WHAT A BUNCH OF BULL S@#T.
To: COURAGE
Isn't this guy connected to the Muslim community?
He's been way off IMO since the war started like he has an interest in the outcome.
I don't trust him and haven't for a time now.
7 posted on
09/21/2004 9:30:46 PM PDT by
A CA Guy
(God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
To: COURAGE
Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive Interactive
9 posted on
09/21/2004 9:31:54 PM PDT by
Drango
(PJs? Never. FReep in the "Buff")
To: COURAGE
This Interactive Poll was posted yesterday and the first thought that came to mind was that another troll had posted the results again. But then I saw it was you and we all know that your not a troll don't we?
20 posted on
09/21/2004 9:35:57 PM PDT by
Terp
(Retired living in Philippines were the Mountains meet the Sea in the Land of Smiles)
To: COURAGE
Well, I guess we'll have to toss all those State polls, performed independently by many different organizations, and other national polls into the trash. Zogby has spoken.
25 posted on
09/21/2004 9:37:15 PM PDT by
Plutarch
To: COURAGE
Don't pay any attention to ZOGBY.
It is a well known fact that ZOGBY leans to the LEFT.
I;ve heard this many times on FNC.
To: COURAGE
31 posted on
09/21/2004 9:39:59 PM PDT by
MEG33
(John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
To: COURAGE
34 posted on
09/21/2004 9:43:14 PM PDT by
Fiddlstix
(This Tagline for sale. (Presented by TagLines R US))
To: COURAGE
Title says "Race falls back into dead heat," but look at Zogby's accumulated Electoral Vote totals (the table towards the top of the article) and you'll see that he never had President Bush up to begin with. Not once, not even in the early part of September where Bush would obviously be riding the convention bounce. That said, I think when even the Zogby poll starts to show trends like Colorado and Missouri moving comfortably to the Bush camp, you've got to take it as a good sign. Could be that he's just behind the curve, like with increasingly-comfortably-red states like Ohio and Wisconsin. I'm still extremely dubious of his new "self-selected" polling methods, we'll see where those go come 11/2.
38 posted on
09/21/2004 9:46:47 PM PDT by
Matt32
To: COURAGE
Zogby's internet polls are as accurate as Dan Rather. With Bush ahead in "Blue" states like New Mexico, Iowa, Oregon, tied in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and surging in Ohio and Florida, this is hardly a dead heat race. Not to mention every poll out there disagrees with Zogby.
To: COURAGE
The race for President of the United States continued to tighten during the last two weeks, as President Bush continued his long, hard slog back toward parity with Democratic challenger John Kerry,Could you just puke?
46 posted on
09/21/2004 9:55:32 PM PDT by
ladyinred
("John Kerry reporting for spitball and typewriter duty.")
To: COURAGE
"President Bush continued his long, hard slog"
He's quoting Rummy on Iraq. This was one of the quotes the MSM used to try to paint the war as a quagmire. I mean, how many people use the phrase "long, hard slog"? As I recall, much a do was made about the phrase when Rummy used it. It had fallen out of vogue until then.
Zogby just told us more about the motivation behind his polling than he intended to (as if FReepers don't already know).
48 posted on
09/21/2004 9:57:28 PM PDT by
streetpreacher
(Bush did not lead this country into an unjust war; Kerry led this country out of a just war.)
To: COURAGE
Oh, Whatever.
I've noticed the MSM hasn't been refering to this guy with the frequency they used to. When even the Old Media avoids results said to be favorable to Kerry, you have trouble.
Zogby's in danger of destroying his credibility completely. If he keeps this up, a good poll released at the end isn't going to save him anymore than CBS' non apology has worked.
To: COURAGE
I thought Zogby was a pollster, not an editorialist. What's with all the opinion?
To: COURAGE
Yo, Bud, ya scared me for a sec!
This latest Zogby poll shows significant improvement by Dubya compared to previous Zogby polls. Great news!!! Thanks for the post, but if you don't mind, add something to the headline next time showing that the article is GOOD for Dubya. Thanks again.
To: COURAGE
Poor Zugby is trying all he can to help out. Seems like you've got your fingers crossed as well.
To: COURAGE
Zogby is an arab muslim, isn't he?
69 posted on
09/22/2004 3:25:12 AM PDT by
JesseHousman
(Execute Mumia Abu-Jamal)
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