Skip to comments.
Numerical Poll Analysis: ABC/WaPost, ARG, CBS News, Fox News, Gallup, LA Times, Newsweek, Time.
Washington Post - Politics ^
| September 21, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 09/21/2004 5:20:54 PM PDT by dvwjr
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41 next last
To: dvwjr
21
posted on
09/21/2004 10:35:06 PM PDT
by
newzjunkey
(Why are we in Iraq? Just point the whiners here: http://www.massgraves.info)
To: dvwjr
Please add me to your list.
22
posted on
09/21/2004 11:00:07 PM PDT
by
texasflower
(How appropriate...... the pro abortion party is the "D 'N' C")
To: newzjunkey
Zogby mixes his analysis of other valid state polls with his 'interactive' national poll which is worthless.
Currently Bush has a 5%-6% point lead over Kerry and Nader in the national 'popular' vote projections. While it is true that the State by State electoral votes are the only ones which count, the "popular" vote as a quick and dirty yard-stick is still important.
Dick Morris, despite his abysmal prediction and analsys record IS very good with numbers. In the 2000 election he said that a model he did for Clinton in 1996 determined that the possiblility of a electoral college 'win' and popular vote 'loss' could only take place if the national popular vote was 0.5%, the election was seperated by the 0.51% final Bush/Gore result.
For the year 2004 model, Morris has changed to a 0.70% model for a split decision election. It will be interesting to see if his new numbers for his model hold up. Of course, only in another very close race would his theory be put to the test.
It's all about vote distribution:
In 1976 Jimmy Carter got 50.08% of the 'popular' vote and 55.20% of the Electoral College vote.
In 1980 Ronald Reagan got 50.75% of the 'popular' vote and 90.89% of the Electoral College vote.
Reagan's extra 0.67% of the 'popular' vote got him an additional 35.69% of the Electoral College vote...
dvwjr
23
posted on
09/21/2004 11:00:29 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: byteback
That's not necessarily a problem -- these are self-identified. After a convention it's not uncommon for some of the public to develop a bit of "me-too"-ism and claim that particular party affiliation. I don't think party affliation should be weighted, especially for the pool of likely voters, but the numbers do need to be taken into some consideration. Remember, momentum is the key.
24
posted on
09/21/2004 11:00:56 PM PDT
by
stands2reason
(Limousine Liberal--a man who has his cake, eats his cake, and complains that other people have cake.)
To: dvwjr
I don't like the movement of the Newsweek poll, but compared to the others it looks like it may be an outlier.
The numbers I just pulled out of my behind show
Bush 49.8
Kerry 44.1
25
posted on
09/21/2004 11:06:33 PM PDT
by
stands2reason
(Limousine Liberal--a man who has his cake, eats his cake, and complains that other people have cake.)
To: dvwjr
anyone else noticed the habitual over sampling of dems and undersampling of reps - especially by aBS/washsocialist?
To: Recovering_Democrat
I thought Gallup didn't weigh party affiliation.
27
posted on
09/21/2004 11:08:29 PM PDT
by
stands2reason
(Limousine Liberal--a man who has his cake, eats his cake, and complains that other people have cake.)
To: stands2reason
I take it you were re-weighting the latest Newsweek poll dated September 9-10, 2004. If I use the VNS calculated year 2000 exit poll data of the R/D/I splits:
34.37% Rep
38.86% Dem
26.77% Ind
then the results would be:
45.43% Bush
47.20% Kerry
01.97% Nader
05.41% Other
For what it's worth...
dvwjr
28
posted on
09/21/2004 11:20:20 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: stands2reason
Here are the complete Newsweek/PSRAI partisan affiliation internals for consideration. I have re-weighted the Newsweek polls under the 'Adjusted Numbers' column to see what happens if the year 2000 VNS exit poll data is blindly applied. The most interesting item is what happened to the Independents from the time period of September 4th to September 10th, big swing for the Independents...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year 2000 Presidential weighting |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VNS calculated exit data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
|
|
|
|
35.69% |
31.31% |
33.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
93.00% |
7.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
|
|
45.43% |
|
|
09/10/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
87.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
43.00% |
|
|
47.20% |
|
|
MOE 4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
0.00% |
7.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
|
|
1.97% |
|
|
1,003 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
6.00% |
9.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
5.41% |
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
34.62% |
32.24% |
33.13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
94.00% |
14.00% |
45.00% |
Bush: |
52.00% |
|
|
49.74% |
|
|
09/04/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
82.00% |
40.00% |
Kerry: |
41.00% |
|
|
43.96% |
|
|
MOE 4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
9.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
|
2.92% |
|
|
1,008 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
3.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
|
3.37% |
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29.01% |
38.51% |
32.48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
8.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
44.38% |
|
|
07/30/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
86.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
49.00% |
|
|
47.53% |
|
|
MOE 4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
7.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
|
2.76% |
|
|
1,010 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
5.00% |
9.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
5.33% |
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
34.37% |
35.66% |
29.97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
10.00% |
34.00% |
Bush: |
44.00% |
|
|
43.59% |
|
|
07/09/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
83.00% |
53.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
48.32% |
|
|
MOE 4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
6.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
|
2.54% |
|
|
1,001 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
6.00% |
7.00% |
Do not know: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.56% |
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
32.21% |
36.90% |
30.89% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
85.00% |
12.00% |
35.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
42.94% |
|
|
05/14/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
78.00% |
42.00% |
Kerry: |
43.00% |
|
|
43.20% |
|
|
MOE 4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
2.00% |
11.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
|
5.06% |
|
|
832 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
8.00% |
12.00% |
Other/UnDec |
10.00% |
|
|
8.80% |
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35.92% |
35.08% |
29.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
88.00% |
11.00% |
35.00% |
Bush: |
45.00% |
|
|
43.74% |
|
|
03/19/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
8.00% |
81.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
43.00% |
|
|
45.41% |
|
|
MOE 4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
4.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
|
5.35% |
|
|
838 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
4.00% |
10.00% |
Do not know: |
7.00% |
|
|
5.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
29
posted on
09/22/2004 12:01:51 AM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
L8R
30
posted on
09/22/2004 12:10:04 AM PDT
by
Cacique
(quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat)
To: dvwjr
31
posted on
09/22/2004 2:56:28 AM PDT
by
G.Mason
(A war mongering, red white and blue, military industrial complex, Al Qaeda incinerating American.)
To: dvwjr
Thanks, interesting analysis. Keep me on your ping list.
To: dvwjr
Great stuff! Please keep me on your ping list.
To: dvwjr
please put me on yor ping list, good work here
34
posted on
09/22/2004 5:58:40 AM PDT
by
RobFromGa
(A desperate man is a dangerous man, and Kerry is getting desperate.)
To: dvwjr
great charts - bump for reference
To: dvwjr; stands2reason; Recovering_Democrat; byteback; MeekOneGOP; newzjunkey; BoBToMatoE; ...
>>I take it you were re-weighting the latest Newsweek poll dated September 9-10, 2004. If I use the VNS calculated year 2000 exit poll data of the R/D/I splits...
Don't forget that there has been a LARGE swing in R/D/I 'party ID' (party Identification)
towards the Republicans since the 2000 election.
Nationwide AVERAGES show that Republicans have picked up a 5 point advantage since the 2000 election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-11_11_03_MK.html
...OTHER outstanding POLL commentary here - NOT to be missed:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html
To: FL_engineer
Agreed. I don't think that the year 2000 R/D/I splits will be confirmed with the exit poll data from the 2004 election.
As to methodology, who is correct? The 'Adjusters' or the 'Leave-it-Alones'???
The 'Adjusters' would have never caught the huge shift of the voting public from Republican to Democrat during the 1932 election campaign in both the Congress and the Presidency (except for the obvious fact of the Great Depression), whereas the 'Leave-it-Alones' numbers would have seen the tidal wave coming.
It might be explained by the fact that the long awaited shift of the public behind the Republicans as the MAJORITY party may be underway.
Or not.
dvwjr
37
posted on
09/22/2004 11:24:44 AM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
That, is the million dollar question. Should their be weighted adjustments or just simple polls.
Zogby weights too much (and note that he is not using the 2002 weights).. then again, maybe he is right, maybe we are behind.
I find that very, very hard to believe based on all the other polls and what I see both in the strategy being used by the candidates and their rhetoric.
To: 1stMarylandRegiment
Maybe just a Virginian... ;-)
dvwjr
39
posted on
09/22/2004 8:56:32 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
would like to be on the ping list too...
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson