Posted on 09/19/2004 6:31:22 AM PDT by harrycarey
Why Bush is teetering
Martin F. Nolan
... Both demographics and history suggest the president's lead is perilous.
............
Bush faces historic odds, four facts he can not change, truisms that confound poll-driven punditry.
-- Bush and his party represent a declining demographic.
The Republican Party is a white, male, Anglo-Saxon Protestant party... According to exit polls in 2000, Bush got 9 percent of the black vote and 35 percent of the Hispanic vote, so the question is "Que pasa?''
.............
-- Re-election is not the presidential norm.
... most presidents are either re-elected easily or defeated. Incumbents either consolidate their position comfortably, like Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton, or fail to do so uncomfortably, like Jimmy Carter and George Bush.
-- Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000.
... If Kerry can hold onto Gore's states and persuade a few thousand voters in Florida and Ohio to switch, he wins easily. If 5 percent of Bush voters in 10 other swing states switch, Kerry wins by a landslide.
-- A self-described "war president'' needs to be winning the war at re- election time.
Bush told Tim Russert he is "a war president.'' (and) the president told Matt Lauer on "Today,'' "I don't think we can win it.''
.........
Kerry may be smarter than Bush, but Jimmy Carter, who had a high IQ, was sometimes clueless...
In his 1982 memoirs, "Keeping Faith,'' Carter wrote: "I was pleased that Governor Reagan was the nominee. With him as my opponent, the issues could be clearly drawn. My campaign analysts had been carefully studying what he had been saying during the Republican primary elections, and it seemed inconceivable that he would be acceptable as president when his positions were exposed clearly to the public.''
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
PUKE!
Can you say "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth?"
I thought so.
There sure are going to be a lot of surprized democrats in November. GWB is wooing people while Kerry continues to look confused and unfocused.
Wishful thinking.
IIRC the history says the opposite... no President with a 50%+ approval on Labor Day has ever lost, right?
It sounds like they're passing the Kool-Aid to assuage their growing anxiety over Senator Kerry's campaign.
What I don't understand is how they can pay people to write such un-insightful crap--a simple reiteration of the Michael Moore line--while much better writers are languishing in unemployment lines.
LOL, wishful thinking on steroids.
This will be a classic "Dewey defeats Truman" article when Bush BLOWS OUT KERRY on election day.
...and mean spirited. Notice how every sound byte of his is negative? Without exception.
No one will ever convince me that Gore won the "legal" popular vote. Who the heck knows who won the popular vote in 2000?
Unlike Gore, Bush did not challenge the races that were close. In places where the lead was so great, the counters didn't even count absentee ballots. Voter fraud was rampant.
Writer needs an air hose inserted to where his head is at. He's suffering from oxygen deprivation.
John Kerry wishes he was 'teetering' between 6-12 points UP like Bush is right now.
The San Francisco Chronicle should spent less time telling us why Bush is teetering and a lot more time telling us why Kerry is flip-flopping.
The same crowd thought Schwarzenegger was going to get wiped out by a resurgent "Gray Davis Tide" from somewhere.
HAHAHA I can stop reading right there. This article is a load of crap. The "Plurality President" consolidated all, what, 43% of his position comfortably?
W is Wooooing the voters, and the voters are Boooooing Kerry
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