Posted on 09/16/2004 10:29:11 AM PDT by Bonaventure
UPDATE: Poll-watcher supreme Jerry Dales e-mails in with a slightly different take:
I would like to respond to your two sentences, "The race is tightening. Kerry's not in such bad shape." Is the race tightening? You use as evidence the fact that the last several nationwide polls have shown the race being relatively close. But that is only part of the story. Tightening is a description of movement, and merely looking at the current location does not tell us anything about the movement. We have to look at the previous result as well to get that.
So let's take a look at the last several national polls.
The most recent result is from Democracy Corps (D), showing it a B49-K48 race. The previous result from them was B50-K47, so it does show a 2 point closer race than before.
Then we have the ICR poll. It shows a B51-K44 result, up from B46-K46 a week earlier. It does not show the race tightening, but going in the other direction.
Next is the IBD/TIPP poll. It has the race tied among likely voters, with no previous likely voter result. On the registered voter side, it has a two point gain for Kerry.
Newsweek shows the race four points tighter. Zogby shows it unchanged. The associated press shows it a point more favorable for Bush. Time shows it 2 points more favorable for Bush. Fox shows it 5 points more favorable for Bush. Rasmussen, it depends on the day of the week but essentially has it close to where he had it a week ago.
Basically, there has been no movement in the past week. Some polls are showing a tie, some are showing a Bush lead. But they are all showing stagnation right now; when there is stasis one would expect some to show slight gains while some show slight losses all due to random variance within the margin of error.
Is Kerry in bad shape? That cannot be answered without defining 'bad shape'. Right now, Kerry is behind, but not to such a degree that he could not recover in the normal course of the campaign.
And given where all these polls are, where does the race stand? I like going by my calculated national result which is based off of all of the state polls. It shows the President up by about 3 points, which exemplifies why Kerry is not in terrible, terrible shape, even though a three point margin could mean a sizeable electoral defeat.
Consensus is emerging: It's not over for Kerry, but I'm sure he would rather be in Bush's position than his position.
SAY WHAT!!!!
BTTT..FYI...
NRO The Corner is rumoring Gallup due out with Bush up BIG...
I think its more than three points, or will be. He's close in Jersey (or ahead depending on who you believe), tied in Minnesota, way ahead in Wisconsin, barely ahead in PA, and close in New Mexico.
I predict a 55B/43K Bush win with upwards of 330 EV's.
I would like to win by 50,000,000 but I really don't care right now if you win by 50 million or just 1
Just win baby
>>NRO The Corner is rumoring Gallup due out with Bush up BIG...<<
Help please.
What/who is NRO and "The Corner"?
Thanks!
Yeah, I saw that Lowry and Goldberg both claim to have heard the new Gallup numbers look good for W.
NRO is National Review Online. It's the digital version of Bill Buckley's magazine. The Corner is NRO's collective blog.
I've said it before I say it again, WORST CASE SCENARIO its Bush by 4 to 5 points.
Personally I think the spread will likely be bigger, but that's my worst case prediction and I'm still sticking with it.
Election day will prove whos right.
oh ok..thank you!
Lets hope they are correct!
go to www.nationalreview.com
A guy like Dales is going to take a conservative approach until the debates are over.
Gallup, OTOH, has been in this business for 70 years, and its methods are tried and true.
Remember the Zogby rumor that had Bush up 8 that wasn't true so everybody chill till we see
As long as Bush wins the percentages are secondary. That said, I really hope Bush gets a mandate so that we can hopefully move the country back to conservative ideals.
Dales is smart.He ain't going out on no limb like Sabato,Cook and Zogby did
Just win. I agree, but to quote Hugh Hewitt "If it's Not Close, They Can't Cheat." Do I believe that the Dems will pull out all the stops to have the dead, felons and illegal aliens vote? Do I believe they will do everything they can to suppress the military vote? Yes, and yes. Should we relax? Hell, no.
Gallup is my favorite, but I have no basis for that opinion aside from "brand loyalty." Other pollsters may have better techniques. Back in 2000, Zogby looked good, but I seem to remember 2002 was unkind to him.
I think that we are 15 days out from some real numbers.
If the margin were that big, we'd be looking at another 1980.
I don't know about you, but I could live with it. :)
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