Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concerns

NYT ^ | 09-12-2004 | D SANGER, W BROAD

[B-Chan]

Of course I'm not advocating that any classified information be released — specific ship names, sailing times, etc. I'm just saying that any unusual activity of the kind visible to the general public could be a sign of something going on. Reporters covering the White House and Pentagon routinely use pizza orders, etc. to gauge the seriousness of a crisis — and so can we.

Nevertheless, in case I didn't make this point clear in my original post, let me reiterate that secret information should be kept secret, and that Freeper reporters limit their posts to those of a general sort — "lots of activity in Sasebo harbor today", etc. — and omit revealing anything that could pose a security risk to US or allied forces. I apologize for any confusion I may inadvertently have caused.

[JasonC]

"the case for negotiation, and for offering the North a face-saving way out"

What case? There isn't any case. There is just a pious wish it would all go away. A face saving way out? They don't want a way out, with face or without. They are winning, you nimnuts, getting away with it. What would they need to back out of?

[JasonC]

No, it is not "too late", and it is not getting any earlier, either. If we do nothing, they will have 100 bombs in ten years, and have sold dozens to terrorists. You can pay to deal with the problem now, or you can pay to deal with it later, but pay you will. And the climb on the likely damage in lives is about double every two years. Not one off, as long as you care to wait, until it double up to "the US is destroyed".

[DoughtyOne]

This was the graphic used when KNBC (4) Los Angeles announced the Korean blast.
Note the close proximity of Ryongchon to the Chinese border.

[tallhappy]

I am familiar with this line of thought of course.

It is delusional. It is wrong and does not understand the Chinese communist view and their use of regimes such as N. Korea, Iraq, Iran and others as counterbalance to the US. It is not in the Chinese communist interest to "reign in" N. Korea and indeed it is inherent in their overall strategic plans for proliferation of this sort to continue. It is also part of their operating strategy to play both sides of the fence, or at least pretend to, and encourage the belief in the viewpoint you have articulated.

That's all there is too it but wishful thinking can make people take leave of ther senses.

[Indie]

Agreed. N Korea has no interest in ceasing, and China has absolutely no reason to or need to try to stop them. N Korea IS in China's best interest.

[Ichneumon]

I am familiar with this line of thought of course.

Oh, "of course".

That's all there is too it but wishful thinking can make people take leave of ther senses.

Whatver yu say.

[Just mythoughts]

"Agreed. N Korea has no interest in ceasing, and China has absolutely no reason to or need to try to stop them. N Korea IS in China's best interest."


China is not N.Korea's "director". Yes they are neighbors, and there are connections, however, N.Korea has been a child of Soviet Communism since 1948. Stalin was their leader and director. China's number one priority is to prevent million upon millions of starving N. Koreans from flooding into their country.

In 1950 Stalin signed a pact with China over N.Korea, check out what that pact said, what the agreement was.

IT was RUSSIA that Clintons, Carter and Bill Richardson made the agreement for the US to adopt N.Korea, NOT CHINA!!!!

It was PUTIN that sent the mental "Il" horses for his birthday, not anyone from China.

[JasonC]

Yes it would be preferably to put so much diplomatic pressure on China they remove Kim themselves. But no, we are not currently putting that pressure on China. The clock is running. China responds to the modest level of pressure we are actually willing to employ vs. them and vs. the north by expressing concern to our face and laughing behind our backs. The only thing that will make China choose to remove Kim themselves is a real and present fear that we will remove him military otherwise. They do not want to be in the position of losing their client and reputation, nor in the position of going to war for a nutjob when they will lose. Right now, they don't think we will use force because of their threats, that we will touch trade because of the business lobby, that we will embargo the north because of South Korean sentiment. They look at the whole board and they think we won't do anything hard enough to shake their position. They think they can continue to proliferate, ramp the number of nukes in the hands of proxies into the tens then hundreds, and then out to delivery nutjobs, and we will sit and discuss how hard the problem is but not do a blessed thing.

[tallhappy]

Nice argument.

[iThinkBig]

Good points in this article, thanks for the post. My opinion says that if the Chinese cuts off NK entirely, then Kim simply keeps his nukes and invades the South.

China does not want the "refugee" problem and all that but from everything I am reading, it really is not that big a deal. I don't think China would have to join in the fight when/if the the North invaded the South. The drain on American human resources and money would be incredible. China wins that way.

I feel China will simply do nothing.

[iThinkBig]

"so why rationally does NK build these weapons?"

They build nukes so that we (the US) and the international community can continue to be blackmailed. Kim can also sell bombs to other semi-rogue nations for billions who will arm the terrorists and eventually take down our country.

My theory says this: Kim is simply waiting to invade and conquer South Korea until after the election. If Bush wins, Kim invades because he can't sustain his massive army for another 4 more years. If Kerry wins Kim gets more blackmail money and with it, repeats the cycle of more weapons and bomb building. i don't even think he'll waste a bomb on testing when he already has at least 1-2 bombs.

When Kim invades and we send our carrier fleet close to the theatre, I would Kim to use his nuclear arsenal nuke it. To me it is not a question of "if" Kim invades, it's a question of when. China would not mind a new "socialist" united Korea to trade with.

Then, China then attacks Taiwan knowing our carrier fleet is crippled and secures Taiwan.

[iThinkBig]

Everything I have read shows South Korea being much more prepared defensively then preparing for invasion. The terrain eliminates a lot of the tech advantage the US/South joint attack force has.

[dr_who_2]

The Bush doctrine applied in 1991. Unfortunately, that was one year before Clinton got elected and everyone decided to focus on stopping ethnic conflicts that had nothing to do with national security.

[ApesForEvolution]

Japan and Taiwan will test them in short order after that...

[Montfort]

It might be a good idea to keep your answers to these questions (when you get them) off of a public web site. Otherwise, freepers could end up serving as an intelligence service for all kinds of bad people.