Posted on 09/11/2004 10:57:50 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON — It's an ill wind that blows no good — but for whom?
That's a question that political analysts are pondering as a third hurricane takes aim at Florida, the biggest battleground state in the presidential election.
Both President Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry maintain that partisan politics have no part in their concern for the victims of the storms that have battered Florida. But, with voting just over 50 days away, practically any word or action by the Republican president or Massachusetts senator is seen in the context of the Nov. 2 election.
The conventional wisdom is that if there has been any political benefit from the storms, it has gone to Bush.
An incumbent president is duty-bound to tour the scene of a natural disaster and to offer aid and comfort. Bush has flown to Florida several times, visiting ravaged communities, helping to distribute ice and bottled water, and promising billions of dollars in federal emergency assistance. His actions can be viewed as presidential, not political.
Kerry, meanwhile, visited Florida a week after Hurricane Charley hit, but has otherwise stayed away. Political rallies seem out of place in a disaster zone.
"The big thing for the office holder is to be associated with successful efforts to help the victims," said Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta. "It's harder for the outsider to come in. What is his goal except to try to score political points?"
But not all political observers agree that Bush's re-election chances have been helped by the hurricanes.
"It will help Kerry on Election Day simply because the hurricanes hit areas with high concentrations of Republicans," countered Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public policy at Florida State University in Tallahassee.
Hurricane Charley hit the southwestern region between Naples and Tampa, the most Republican region of the state, he said. Frances came ashore near Stuart on the southeastern coast and headed to the central city of Orlando through another Republican-leaning area.
"Priorities are rearranged substantially in places still without electricity," deHaven-Smith said. For folks trying to rebuild and settle insurance claims, "voting will be pretty far down the priority list."
The hurricanes could not have hit a more politically important state in the 2004 presidential race.
Four years ago, Florida put Bush in the White House by 537 votes in a bitterly contested election. Both candidates believe they can take the state this year. Florida has 27 electoral votes — a tenth of the 270 needed for victory — and is the largest state still closely fought.
Historically, natural disasters have been a mine field for candidates.
When tornadoes hit Alabama in early 2000, Vice President Al Gore went to the state with promises of federal aid. But Gore, then seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, was criticized for not meeting with enough victims and not visiting a community crushed by the twisters. Alabama voted for Bush that fall.
"In 1992, George Bush senior almost lost Florida based on public displeasure about his response to Hurricane Andrew," recalled Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.
Many in South Florida were angry that more aid did not get there faster after the deadly storm hit in August 1992. "Where in the hell is the cavalry on this one? For God's sake, where are they?" Kate Hale, then Miami-Dade emergency operations director, complained at the time.
"Although Bill Clinton had a controversial presidency, he is credited across party lines with strengthening" the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Sabato. "He knew that the one thing government is expected to do is provide for people in emergencies."
The current President Bush seems to have learned from his predecessor and from his father's mistake on Hurricane Andrew, the analysts agreed. The first 100,000 pounds of federal ice took five days to reach victims of Hurricane Andrew, for instance, while nearly 600,000 pounds came in the first day after Charley.
And the president has been helped by his brother, Jeb Bush, the Republican governor of Florida.
"His brother has the reputation of being hands-on and interested in all the details of delivering services," said Black, an expert in Southern politics. "My impression is that Jeb Bush has been getting good marks, and that probably helps the president."
"It's been Jeb TV 24 hours a day for a month," said Sabato. The Florida governor "has helped himself and probably his brother."
But others see a lesser impact.
"I suppose that at some level, yes, it might come across as crass for Kerry to be seen campaigning in Florida. But it seems to me that Bush is also hemmed in," said Theodore Steinberg, author of "Disasters and Democracy: The Politics of Extreme Events."
"Let's face it, people are not stupid, and when they see photos of the president giving out bottled water in a parking lot they know he's not there doing it for their health, but his," said Steinberg, a history professor at Case Western Reserve University near Cleveland.
And there could be a price to pay for becoming the face of the relief effort.
"Bush is coming into Florida regularly, showing concern and leadership in marshaling resources in the wake of the disasters," said deHaven-Smith, the Florida State professor. "But from past hurricanes, we know it takes months or even years to get things back to normal and settle insurance claims. He's saying he's going to fix things and people get expectations up too high.
"Some people ready complaining about federal agencies" not providing enough help, he noted.
"The larger issue here is this: Natural disaster policy in our country is a bipartisan calamity. Both candidates ought to be embarrassed by the idea of showing up there in person," said Steinberg. "Back roughly a decade ago, we experienced a spate of disasters (Hurricane Hugo, Hurricane Andrew, the Midwest floods, the Northridge earthquake in California) and the pressure on our disaster relief system proved so intense that the entire system came undone."
As a result, he said, new rules for funding relief required that the aid be paid for with other spending cuts or tax increases.
For example, he said, the Northridge earthquake was paid for in part with cuts in the low-income home energy assistance program — just as "hundreds of people in Chicago were frying to death in a heat wave, the worst natural calamity, in terms of deaths, in recent history."
The aid offsets were "something most Republicans and Democrats alike agreed on," he noted. "How fiscal imperatives will play out with respect to relief in Florida will be interesting to see."
Bob Dart's e-mail address is bobdart(at)coxnews.com
Hurricane Charley hit the southwestern region between Naples and Tampa, the most Republican region of the state, he said. Frances came ashore near Stuart on the southeastern coast and headed to the central city of Orlando through another Republican-leaning area.
"Priorities are rearranged substantially in places still without electricity," deHaven-Smith said. For folks trying to rebuild and settle insurance claims, "voting will be pretty far down the priority list."***
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As if a Republican wouldn't crawl over glass to vote for Bush. A Kerry/Edwards adminstration would be a 4 year national disaster with long range socialist and terrorist fallout.
"In other news, Dan Rather has obtained official documents from the U.N. Weather Committee indicating that all hurricanes are funded by Republicans."
Or:
"Kerry told hurricane victims in Florida they might have been able to move into new homes before for Thanksgiving had not Bush spent $950-bejillion on the war in Iraq, which Kerry is against this week."
How do you expect people to vote who can't wait a couple of days for their free ice?
Shallow people are voting for Kerry.
Stalwart people are voting for Bush.
If Ivan misses, my supplies will go to those in need. I can stock up gradually again over the next three weeks if I have time.
Of course, it's Bush's fault.
Bump!
Good luck. I hear it's tracking more westward.
No kidding!
We had to see Clinton everyday (sort of like pictures of Saddam all over the place) telling us what wonderful things he did for us hour by hour, minute by minute.
dehaven-Smith should leave the liberal haven of the Grove of the Academe and journey to Bush Country before uttering the unbelievable. It is a short trip - I suggest Marion County as a starting point on his journey of discovery
The conservatives will be at the polls, even if a hurricane is blowing, and this "academic" will have to learn to live with it.
I saw one news account that told of an obituary where the deceased had directed: In lieu of flowers, send money to the Kerry campaign.
I hope we'll be seeing Kerry's political funeral real soon.
Hurricanes have party affiliations? Who woulda thunk it, oh this is the Palm Beach post, sorry.
Hate to bust the sick buffoons balloon, but the area CHARLEY hit was mostly retires from the northeast. Hardly Republican country.
In any event, I think you are more likely to vote for the people that are doing a good job helping you get back on your feet. And boy do the people in the affected region need help. But if the recovery effort goes badly ... then retribution will be swift. That is what the PBP and the dims are really hoping for. So far so good.
Oh yes, forgot that...
; )
What this means is that, under Democrat socialism, all power will be turned of to the entire U.S. population until power is restored to the disaster areas.This way, no part of the nation will be at a disadvantage compared to the others. < /sarcasm>
You may have given Kerry's stable of lawyers an idea.
Ooops - my bad!
First of all, the Palm Beach Post is a liberal rag. Second, I wouldn't give this hogwash a minute of my time. GW Bush will cary Florida handily, End of story!!!
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