The weekend started out like a lion and ended like a lamb. AQ hits in Egypt and probable others in France and Iraq combined with the impending elections in Afganistan and Australia brought great concern. However, the terrorists lost more than they thought they gained. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
10/11/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
10/11/04 Primary Window: We are now 22 days away from election day and if AQ is intending to attack before Nov 2, their window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
10/11/04 A tip on or about 9/8/04 to the DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC using a fuel truck. We are now PAST this subwindow.
10/11/04 The American Computer Scientists Assoc (ACSA) put out a press release dated 9/25/04, indicating that Oct 6 & 7th would be likely days for an AQ attack to occur if it is to be successful in influencing the American elections. Because the attack in Egypt occured on the 7th, they are claiming success in predicting the attack. However, the attacks did little to influence the elections. They are now predicting that Oct 12th is the next likely day for an AQ based attack.
10/11/04 With the approach of Ramadan (October 15/16 - Nov 12) discussion is beginning to turn to the potential for terror during that time frame especially since U.S. elections are during Ramadan. Some discussions on the web suggest that an attack will be attempted prior to the start so as not to impinge upon the ‘holy’ observsance of the period.
Secondary window: (10/11/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.
2. Attack Indicators
10/11/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. But then we’ve been anticipating this for over a month now. However, there is some speculation that it may come out AFTER the attack in order to allow him to gloat.
There have also been some that indicated that internet jihadi chatter has reached a low ebb, suggesting that operational phases are in progress.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
Iraq
10/10/04 Shiite militiamen loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have begin handing in weapons, a significant step toward restoring order in Baghdad's sprawling Sadr City slum as the interim government struggles to curb Iraq's more widespread Sunni insurgency.
10/10/04 Militiamen fighting under the banner of radical Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are not only pumping themselves up with drugs, they are now reported to be selling them.
10/8/04 A video broadcast on Arabic television has reportedly shown the beheading of British hostage Ken Bigley.
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13228464,00.html
Italy
10/8/04 Reggio Calabria's mayor, Giuseppe Scopelliti (National Alliance) is under armed escort. The mayor was informed of the decision to give him the escort service yesterday, before an explosive design was found unexploded in the washrooms of the city hall, Palazzo San Giorgio. http://www.ds-osac.org/view.cfm?KEY=7E4351454455&type=2B170C1E0A3A0F162820
Afghanistan
10/9/04 Taliban insurgents apparently stood by silently as Afghanistan held its first presidential election in history. The failure of the Taliban and AQ to stop the election is an clear blow to terrorism in Afganistan and will make it even harder to sway the Afgans away from the path to democracy now that they have tasted it. Assassination attempts are still a great concern.
10/8/04 A 40-feet oil tanker full of explosive material was seized in southern Afghan province of Kandahar on Friday. “Three foreigners were also detained in this case," spokesman Khalid Pashtun told journalists in Kandahar city at a press briefing. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-10/08/content_2064910.htm
Pakistan
10/11/04 A PAKISTANI tribal fighter, Abdullah Mehsud, released from Guantanamo Bay this year was holding two Chinese hostages in Waziristan last night in an attempt to force an end to the United States-led hunt for terrorists along the Afghan border. Chinese diplomats, aided by American and Pakistani advisers, were negotiating with the hostage-takers.
Israel
10/10/04 Investigators on Friday were still trying to determine whether three suicide car bomb attacks Thursday targeting Red Sea resorts in Egypt, filled with Israeli tourists, were carried out by al-Qaida terrorists. But an NBC analysis of the confluence of statements by Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant, Ayman al Zawahri, and terrorist attacks shows that on eight separate occasions, an attack attributed to al-Qaida quickly followed a statement by Zawahri.
Thursday's series of bombings followed by one week the last audio statement by Zawahri and by four weeks the last Zawahri video statement.
10/9/04 DEBKA reports that Israeli troops killed Abd al Rauf Nabhan, senior Hamas operative who directed the Qassam missile attack from Jebalya that killed 2 Sderot children on Sep. 29. Seven Palestinians were also killed in northern Gaza Saturday on 10th day of Israeli operation to eradicate the Qassam missile threat.
10/8/04 At least 21 people were killed and some 140 wounded in a triple suicide bomb attack in Egypt's Sinai Desert resorts, which were packed with thousands of Israelis on holiday.
Two unknown groups claimed responsibility for the terror attacks. The Islamic Tawhid Brigades, aligned with al Qaeda, claimed responsibility on a website. Another group, the Jama'a Al-Islamiya Al-Alamiya - the World Islamist Group - also claimed responsibility in a call to news agencies, saying it was in revenge for "the Palestinian and Arab martyrs dying in Palestine and Iraq."
Godzilla note. I origionally suspected Iraqi Al-Zarqwari due to the poor coordination of the timing of the attacks. However, other sources indicate that there may have been vehicle and or explosive malfunctions that disrupted the timing. Therefore, I’ve come around to believe that it was AQ after all.
Iran
10/11/04 Iran continues in its race to develop a nuclear bomb.
Russia
10/11/04 Nothing new to report.
England
10/11/04 England mourns the loss of Ken Bigley.
Syria
10/11/04 Nothing new to report.
Egypt
10/11/04 Authorities continue to search for survivors and casualities as well as trying to identify the bombers that attacked the Sinai hotels. Some reports suggest that two of the bombers escaped alive.
Saudi Arabia
10/11/04 Nothing new to report.
N. Korea
10/11/04 Talks to reign-in N. Korea’s nuclear weapon program have been discontinued and probably won’t restart until after the US elections.
China / N. Korea
10/11/04 China has reportedly deployed between 50,000 - 150, 000 troops along its border with N. Korea. Reasons range from trying to stop starved N. Koreans from fleeing the country, to stopping rogue N. Korean military hunting for food, to being deployed as a deterrent to the development of a N. Korean nuke.
S. Korea
10/11/04 Nothing new to report .
Indonesia
10/11/04 Nothing new to report.
Central America
10/11/04 Nothing new to report.
France
10/7/04 French radio is reporting that an explosion at the Indonesian Embassy in Paris has caused injuries. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1238617/posts
United States
10/8/04 Al-Uquaily, 33-year-old Iraqi-born Nashville man who allegedly threatened to ''go jihad'' was arrested by FBI terrorism agents, after he took possession of two disassembled machine guns, four disassembled hand grenades and hundreds of rounds of ammunition. Court documents show Al-Uqaily also was interested in getting missiles used to disable tanks. http://www.tennessean.com/local/archives/04/09/59308792.shtml?Element_ID=59308792
4. Attack method.
10/11/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. Stolen fuel / propane trucks seem to be high on LEA's radar. Hijacked airlines are still on AQ's hit parade too.
10/11/04 Authorities are concerned about apparent surviellance and casing of ferry boat operations in Washington state. Over 100 incidents have been reported with federal officials indicating that approximately 19 were ‘serious’.
10/7/04 School officials in Fort Myers, Fla.; Salem, Ore.; Gray, Ga.; Birch Run, Mich.; two towns in New Jersey; and two towns in California have been told to increase security in light of the discovery of school plans on a computer disk captured along with a suspected AQ sympathizer in Iraq. http://abcnews.go.com/sections/WNT/US/schools_threat_041007-1.html
5. Personnel
10/11/04 Nothing new to report.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
10/11/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
10/11/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
10/11/04 3 carrier groups deployed (CV-67 Kennedy , CV-63 Kitty Hawk , CVN-74 Stennis ), 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 are post deployment and 5 under going maintenance.
10/11/04 F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
10/9/04 PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Sat Oct 09 2004 01:20:17 GMT-0700.
Egypt
October 08, 2004
This Public Announcement is being issued to alert U.S. citizens to avoid travel on the east coast of Sinai north of Sharm el Sheikh, particularly in the vicinity of the towns of Taba and Nuweiba. This Public Announcement expires on January 8, 2005.
On October 7, an explosion severely damaged the Hilton Hotel in Taba on the northeast coast of Sinai. Other explosions took place in the vicinity of Nuweiba, located south of Taba. While there is no indication that U.S. citizens were the targets of these attacks, Americans in Egypt are urged to exercise caution and remain vigilant. Travelers on roadways outside of Cairo may experience delays due to the additional Egyptian security presence.
10/8/04 The U.S. Department of Homeland Security unveiled new computer workstations Thursday that allow Border Patrol agents on the Canadian and Mexican borders to tap into the FBI's fingerprint database, overcoming a technological hurdle that lasted years.
http://www.canada.com/travel/story.html?id=40608d9a-c69f-4a72-bb08-d9cd594cb662
10/7/04 An FBI bulletin issued Wednesday says the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are "currently unaware of any specific, credible information indicating a terrorist threat to public and private schools, universities or colleges in the U.S." But given the recent terror attack on a Russian school, such a scenario is not hard to imagine -- and the bulletin issued Wednesday urges schools to secure entries and exits; and to watch for suspicious activity as a precaution, Fox News reported. On Sept. 30, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that U.S. authorities in Iraq had detained a man, an Iraqi national, who was carrying a computer disk containing a publicly available report about crisis planning in San Diego schools and other school districts.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
10/9/04 Two steel electrical transmission towers were knocked over in a suspicious manner causing power outages to Mitchell International Airport. The incident was reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Some bolts were missing at the towers, but the company refused to say if foul play is suspected.
http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/politics/9880024.htm
Godzilla note. Earlier this summer similar tampering with the nuts and bolts of steel transmission powerlines was reported in several location in northern CA. An individual was spotted, however he got away from the police. Some have suggested that this is a loner or possibly activity by the Earth Liberation Front (ELF). The ELF has disrupted power lines in the past.
Abdullah got released from Guantanamo so he could go take hostages. There ought to be a billboard in NY thanking the ACLU and the liberals for their kind concern about evil Abdullah and asking if they have as much empathy for his Chinese hostages as they did for him! Don't see any of them making an attempt to negotiate freedom for these hostages now do we?
Thank you Godzilla for that summary.
Metal Box Found On Peco Tower
Oct 11, 2004 11:15 pm US/Eastern PHILADELPHIA (AP) A major highway connecting Philadelphia with its western suburbs was shut down in both directions for several hours Monday night because of the discovery of what federal authorities described as a suspicious package.
The metal box attached to a Peco Energy Co. electric transmission tower had the letters "ELF" on the front, the initials of the radical environmental organization Earth Liberation Front. It was unclear Monday night whather the group, which has claimed responsibility for previous arson attacks in Pennsylvania, was responsible for the box placed on the tower.
The suspicious object was near the Schuylkill Expressway's Belmont Avenue exit, so police closed the highway in both directions between Interstate 476 and City Avenue.
"The FBI got involved because this organization has used violence in the past in order to promote their mission," FBI spokeswoman Jerri Williams said. "That is why we took action, and that is why we were so cautious."
Williams said authorities still did not know Monday night what was inside the package. Members of the state and Montgomery County bomb squads were trying to figure out what was inside the box.
Thanks for putting this summary together ... and please, keep me on the ping list!
(catching up ... catching up ... catching up .... )
Great summary- thank you!