Sounds like a Dog Day Afternoon alright!
I’ve been pretty busy since the last update, so this one will probably be a lot more summary with relatively ‘old’ news. However, a lot has been happening with some interesting new views on the ‘old’ news. I also hope to have part one on the potential Iranian military response to any attack on their nuclear research infrastructure done later today for posting. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
10/4/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
10/4/04 Primary Window: We are now 30 days away from election day and if AQ is intending to attack before Nov 2, their window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The recent audio tape released by Al Zawahiri adds fuel to the speculation about the proximity of today to the next strike.
10/4/04 A tip on or about 9/8/04 to the DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC using a fuel truck. We are now IN this subwindow with 6 days left.. Just for the record, the second presidential debate will be held Oct 8th.
10/4/04 A new kid on the block is the American Computer Scientists Assoc (ACSA). I throw these folks into the mix for evaluation and documentation if their predictive methodology pans out. They note in the following press release excerpts dated 9/25/04 -
“The ACSA (American Computer Scientists Association | http://acsa.net ) indicated it felt October 6 and 7th were very likely "Al Qaeda Profiled" days for such an attack to occur. It also stated that any such attack could be delayed to occur closer to the actual US Elections, but for the Democratic Party to seize an opportunity to try and topple the Bush Campaign, it would probably require four weeks of concerted, coordinated efforts, for it to blame Bush for the anticipated attack sufficiently to muster support for it's failing campaign, as indicated by recent drops in support for Kerry in the polls.”
"We believe that it is likely that October 6 and 7 best fit the kind of drama program the Al Qaedans like to use. For one, the 6th is the actual anniversary of the Palestinian takeover of the Cruise Liner Achille Lauro in 1985”
"The 7th of October is the actual anniversary of the 1973 attack during Yom Kippur on Israel, and the actual anniversary of the United States – British combined operation to invade Afghanistan two to three years ago after 911."
Their press release also goes into potential numerology and other significant events on those dates. It has been noted here at TM that there is a slight correlation between attacks and historic events and numbers but the connections have not yet been a reliable indicator for bracketing attack windows.
Secondary window: (10/4/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.
2. Attack Indicators
10/4/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. However, there is some speculation that it may come out AFTER the attack in order to allow him to gloat.
10/01/04 Following the conflicting news accounts regarding his capture, Al Zawarhiri, AQ #2 man, released an audio tape message to his followers. This tape does give the impression that the GO order has been issued. However, the reports of his capture my have hit close to the mark based upon the following analysis of Zawarhiri’s message that is posted on Jill’s site that identified some key points.
These are the main two phrases that are causing all the consternation and speculation.
Al Zawahiri is releasing all the Al Qaeda cells to act independently on their own and saying that Al Qaeda central command, control is gone; no orders will be coming regarding future attacks.
This means a go for any cells close to or ready for an attack.
He uses the Term in it "Devour" and its whole tone is negative and filled with despair.
Some of the key Arabic words were looked up and put in context culturally.
For example, the key phrase here is "The youth must not wait for anyone and must begin resisting from now and learn a lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan and Chechnya." It suggests there are no further orders coming from any command central," and all are released to perform actions at the time and against targets of their choosing."
http://www.homelandsecurityus.net/zawahiri%20message%20analysed.htm
Jill also posted some comments about the message from jihadi sites that seem to indicate that the top AQ leadership is hard pressed to remain uncaptured / alive..
” The talk increased Lately about a leading fate the rule from a saying, they are in the grip of the age ghoul America ..”
“This comes under a noticeable absence to Osama Ben Ladin 's tapes personally .. And these signals that Al-Zawahiri 's talk included confirm that their fate became nearer to the death or the capture and it might have talked to its companion one of them then offered this speech as a preparation for the declaration of Ibn Ladn 's fate or for taming its supporters for the hearing of surprises from the heavy caliber about their fate .”
We are not the only ones to whom the absence of OBL is extremely curious.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
Iraq
10/4/04 Random attacks, car bombings, kidnappings and beheadings continue primarily against Iraqi civilian and police targets. There are some reports that a US airstrike interrupted the turn-over of French journalists for ransom. The British prisoner is still alive and providing plenty of PSYOPS for the terrorists.
10/4/04 U.S. Army intelligence has concluded that daily U.S. air strikes have hurt the terror network led by Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi.
U.S. officials said military intelligence has detected a drop in communications and activities in insurgency-controlled Sunni cities such as Faluja and Samara.
Over the last month, officials estimated, about 100 Al Zarqawi operatives have been killed in U.S. bombing operations, mostly in Faluja. They said the air strikes were based on enhanced intelligence regarding the movement of senior operatives.
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/front_1.html
Additional note: Al-Zarqawi recently released a message on 9/11/04 the translation and some commentary can be found at:
http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=subjects&Area=jihad&ID=SP78504
Some noted that the 9/11/04 message had a degree of desperation in it. The most recent U.S. airstrikes (10/4/04) attacked the terrorists as they were trying to move weapons in the middle of the night. Clearly the airstrikes are taking a significant toll since their ‘stronghold’ is no longer safe enough for them to do this during daylight hours.
10/4/04 The First Infantry Division is conducting mop-up operations in Samara. It is now being reported that as many as 42 of the captured terrorists were non-Iraqi. Control of this city puts a further tactical squeeze upon Al-Zarqawi and other terrorists holed up in Fallujah, in the central portion of the sunni triangle. This attack may soon be followed up by an attack on Baqubah, another terrorist stronghold, closing down the northern prong of the sunni triangle. If this occurs, then Al-Zarqawi may find his logistical support cut off from Iran as well as Syria as US and Syria work towards sealing that border off (western prong of the sunni triangle). Sadr City is also being systematically bombed with much of the resistance there on the decline (southeastern prong of the sunni triangle).
Italy
9/28/04 Two kidnapped Italian aid workers in Iraq were released after a ransom was paid to their kidnappers.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-09/26/content_2026485.htm
Afghanistan October 9 Elections
10/4/04 Coalition forces continue to engage small groups of Taliban on a daily basis. Reinforcements are on the ground to provide additional security for national elections this Saturday.
Pakistan
10/4/04 Nothing significant to report.
Israel
10/4/04 Israel began a sweep in the northern Gaza Strip to eliminate rocket launches originating from there. These operations have been having success. So much so that the UN has quickly met to condemn the actions. Additionally, Israeli surveillance aircraft have photographed terrorists using UN marked ambulances to carry military supplies and materials.
Iran
10/4/04 Iran’s Mullahs have put their country on a crash course to have at least 2 nuclear bombs by the end of the year. As a result, Russia is now backing off its completion of a Iranian nuclear power plant and is becoming more supportive of the US and EU positions. Iran has also threatened to launch its newest missiles against Israel if attacked.
Russia
10/4/04 Russia may be planning to attack suspected terrorist sites in the country of Georgia as well as the state of Chechnya. However, their military is reported to be in disarray with many AWOL.
England
10/4/04 There are conflicting stories regarding how involved the British government is with negotiations to release a hostage facing beheading in Iraq.
Syria
10/1/04 The UN has told Syria that it is in violation of its directive to completely pull out of Lebanon.
9/27/04 Syrian President Bashar Assad is seeking Tehran's help to relocate a dozen Iraqi nuclear scientists who were moved to Damascus prior to the collapse of Saddam Hussein's government last. For his part of the deal, Assad wants Iran to agree to share the results of their research with Syria. According to the report, Assad is still waiting for an answer from Tehran.
I suspect that Assad is trying to reduce his profile to avoid a potential US attack.
Lebanon
9/27/04 The alleged top al-Qaida operative in Lebanon, Ismail Mohammed al-Khatib, who was captured last week in a security operation that broke up a terrorist network, died of a heart attack Monday. Many would have wished he’d died of lead poisoning.
N. Korea
10/4/04 The situation is still tense as the region waits to see if N. Korea will conduct some kind of missile test. Probably of more propaganda nature, N. Korea announced that it has 8 nuclear weapons in its arsenal. If true, these bombs would have been made from processing the old plutonium fuel rods that had been held in storage until the recent violation of the treaty with the US.
S. Korea
10/1/04 S. Korea is at a heightened alert status due to the recent message from Al Zawahiri, who included the country in the list of targets.
Indonesia
9/27/04 South-East Asian governments must prepare for the possibility of regional terror group Jemaah Islamiah (JI) forging links with Chechen separatists and adopting even more aggressive tactics, an expert warns.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200409/s1208212.htm
Central America
9/28/04 Adnan G. El Shukrijumah, a key al Qaeda cell leader for whom the U.S. government has offered a $5 million reward, was spotted in July in Honduras meeting with leaders of El Salvador's notorious Mara Salvatrucha gang, which immigration officials said has smuggled hundreds of Central and South Americans — mostly gang members — into the United States. Although they are actively involved in alien, drug and weapons smuggling, Mara Salvatrucha members in America also have been tied to numerous killings, robberies, burglaries, carjackings, extortions, rapes and aggravated assaults — including at least seven killings in Virginia and a machete attack on a 16-year-old in Alexandria that severely mutilated his hands.
Authorities said al Qaeda terrorists hope to take advantage of a lack of detention space within the Department of Homeland Security that has forced immigration officials to release non-Mexican illegal aliens back into the United States, rather than return them to their home countries.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040928-123346-3928r.htm
United States
10/1/04 McALLEN — Information provided by a high-ranking al-Qaida operative led authorities to almost a dozen undocumented aliens who worked for the largest supplier of ready-to-eat meals for the military, officials said.
U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas, Michael Shelby, said Thursday an al-Qaida member told U.S. military personnel about the Wornick Co., located here.
"Immediately after the liberation of Afghanistan from the Taliban in 2002, U.S. forces on the ground received specific information that links McAllen, Texas, by name and the Wornick facility by name to information within al-Qaida’s possession," Shelby said.
http://www.themonitor.com/SiteProcessor.cfm?Template=/GlobalTemplates/Details.cfm&StoryID=3727&Section=Local
9/27/04 Attorney General John Ashcroft has taken the unusual step of ordering all Justice Department law enforcement resources to be routed to terrorism "if and when necessary to prevent terrorist attacks."
Ashcroft's order allows the country's Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) to get emergency help from the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the U.S. Marshals Service and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,133634,00.html
9/27/04 With the election five weeks away, U.S. counterterrorism officials are obsessed with reports from multiple sources that terrorists hope to disrupt the campaign. "Nobody can give you date, time or place, but everyone is absolutely convinced we're going to get hit," says a top counterterrorism hand.
So the FBI is putting together an aggressive plan that includes rousting people suspected of supporting violent extremists.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101041004-702077,00.html
4. Attack method.
10/4/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. Stolen fuel / propane trucks seem to be high on LEA's radar. Hijacked airlines are still on AQ’s hit parade too.
Also of concern are assassinations and kidnappings / hostages. Both of these actions are relatively low tech and highly possible. Our own internal wacko -the DC sniper and various other unsolved snipings show how difficult it would be to track down a determined terrorist.
9/28/04 Al Qaeda's threat to attack the United States before the November 2 election is geared less toward affecting the outcome of the presidential race than toward making a violent statement to Islamic extremists worldwide, senior counterterrorism officials said Monday.
The officials said the network's aim in the United States, and in other countries as well, is mainly to disrupt the democratic process in a more general sense.
"Striking America at a time of heightened sensitivity, perhaps they would see that as a feather in their cap," said one senior administration official, who along with three others briefed reporters on condition of anonymity Monday about the pre-election threat.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/28/terror.threat.ap/
As many here in TM have noted, the pressure on AQ to perform is increasing and the absence of a significant attack prior to the elections would result in serious ‘loss of face’ by the organization. A recent Bill Gertz article echoed this in the Washington times.
"They [al Qaeda] think their credibility is on the line because there hasn't +been a major attack since 9/11," said one official familiar with intelligence reports on the group.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040921-121158-2444r.htm
5. Personnel
10/4/04 Nothing new.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
10/4/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
10/4/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
10/1/04 The US Navy has positioned destroyers off the coast of N. Korea to monitor and track any potential missile launch. These ships are also to be the first line of tracking stations for the strategic defensive missile system until a more extensive ground-based system can be put into place.
10/4/04 3 carrier groups deployed (CV-67 Kennedy, CV-63 Kitty Hawk, CVN-74 Stennis), 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 are post deployment and 5 under going maintenance.
10/4/04 F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
9/21/04 The Secret Service is looking for an armed, mentally unstable upstate man in connection with a plot to kill President Bush and John Kerry. The agency put out a "national lookout" yesterday for Lawrence Ward, a 57-year-old resident of Bainbridge, N.Y., who is said to have an obsession with guns, a history of violence and a hatred of the president. Ward was last seen on Sept. 9 as he got into his blue 1997 Toyota with a lever-action shotgun, the neighbor said. The alert said the car has New York license-plate number BRF6546.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/30/04 A pilot flying a Delta Air Lines jet was injured by a laser that illuminated the cockpit of the aircraft as it approached Salt Lake City International Airport last week, U.S. officials said.
Officials were unsure of the source of the laser and could not determine whether the exposure was deliberate or accidental.
http://washingtontimes.com/national/20040928-111356-3924r.htm
9/27/04 In what appears to be a case of criminal mischief, a punctured pipeline exploded before dawn Sunday, causing the evacuation of 250 people in New Caney, TX, a small community north of Houston, but no injuries or significant damage to nearby homes. Residents near the pipeline said they were awakened around 4:45 a.m. by two explosions — a small one, then a large one
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory/2816266
9/27/04 Hippocrates Koutosoupakis was arrested after police found substances used in the manufacturing of explosives in his van near the Atlantic Beach Bridge on Long Island. Police say the potentially dangerous substances were inside Koutosoupakis's van and that it "was his intention to cause an explosion. Also, a search of his home turned up several improvised explosives.
http://1010wins.com/topstories/winstopstories_story_270090637.html