Posted on 09/08/2004 1:25:05 PM PDT by governsleastgovernsbest
LOL
Pat Caddell, on O'Reilly's show last night, said that Kerry was "still bleeding," and that polls next week would likely be even worse for him.
I'll get back to you when I find the downside to this.
Don't wait up, it may take a while
Our Bush rep is staying in town because of the Bush visit Friday. He said they are keeping track of registrations and the Bush campaign is registering more people than the Kerry campaign. He said the totals really favor Bush. The goal is 100,000 new Bush voters registered. If that goal is reached and Kerry camapaign does not significantly improve its performance there is no way Kerry can win Ohio.
The veterans, family values, and terrorist issues are hurting Kerry badly. He is trying to play both sides and he is only painting himself as a man who can not be trusted.
His attacks on Bush are silly. Demanding that Bush stop the Swift Boat ads is an example of stupidity. Whining that he does not have the power to deal with his opposition is a major loser.
Presidents are elected to control situations. Admitting he can't control things is a major negative.
Kerry is the snotty little kid that can't control his own problems.
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The Dispatch, from what I understand, is using one precinct on the Northeast side of Columbus on which to base its samples for its internal questions. The claim is that this precinct is the most representative precinct in Central Ohio if not the whole state.
This link talks about it more. Even more on the Dispatch's polling methods.
My understanding is that Delaware County to the North of Franklin is the fastest growing County in the State. I would say Delaware would favor Bush more than Franklin. 62 is not in Delaware County. I would say Ohio is not as competitive for M. Kerry (or as M. Kerry would like to think) as say PA or FL. Gore actually suspended campaigning in OH sometime in late September or early October of 2000. I think Bush won Ohio by 5 points
Thanks for explaining that.
I refuse to believe Kerry is behind in WA state. Do not underestimate the moral bankruptcy of the people of this state.
I challenge all comers to put up a more ineffectual crew of legislators than these: (Murray, Cantwell, McDermott, Larsen and Locke)
Chances are good they are all reelected (Locke isn't running)
Sure, right after you back up your claim that there's ZERO money in pro-Bush 527s.
Still bleeding??? Ahhhhh, a chance for Purple Ouchie # 4!!
Exactly, when the race is close the candidate talks positives. When the race is moving away from a candidate like Kerry they always go real negative, like they are now.
Please read my post again. I was referring ONLY to 527s focusing only on GOTV efforts, which ACT does, and nothing on our side does. Check out actforvictory.com to see what they are up to.
Oh, wait, we're not done yet. We're gonna kick your ass out of the Senate at the next go-round. In fact, after this fiasco, the Dims themselves will stop ignoring the scent of blood in the water, and bitch slap you right out of your next reelection primary.
Let's not be too pessimistic, either. A 1% RV lead sounds unreasonably small, too, since there are more registered R's than D's in OH. At least I think that's the case.
Skank is more like it.
"said the Bush campaign is registering more people than the Kerry campaign."
This is good if it's true, but there are two very big reasons for skepticism about the claim.
First, "registering" people isn't the same as adding new people to the electorate. Having a lot of experience with voter registration in the Republican party, I can tell you that most of it is simply a matter of RE-registering people who have moved to a new addresss. We are of course performing a service. But we're not adding new Republican voters. We're simply getting them registered at their proper (new) address instead of the improper (old) one.
Second, a comparison between the number of voters registered by the "Bush campaign" and the "Kerry campaign"
tells us nothing about what will happen in the election. They are interesting for internal campaign purposes only.
The valid comparison is between Republican groups (including the state parties and the Bush campaign) and Democratic groups. In other words, if the official Bush campaign is registering new voters than the Kerry campaign, that's irrelevant if the unions, the "civil-rights" groups, etc., are undertaking massive voter registration drives of their own. Since I assume they are, the important question is how OUR groups (religious-right, etc.) are doing with their registration drives.
A third concern I have: If some of these "Republican" registrations are simply people who are being registered BY Republicans, but are not necessarily registering AS Republicans, what good have we done in those cases? Are we going to black and Hispanic neighborhoods and registering people to vote, thinking they'll support Bush just because it was a Republican who came to their door?
All these are questions to ask anytime someone tells you how great we're doing with registration. Maybe we are, but let's understand what we're talking about.
That was not a horse race poll, but it was an important set of numbers that affect the psychology of the race...it was a poll of who people expect to win in November. This is key because it gives insight over where the Undecideds might be heading as the election comes to a close, and also about the turnout numbers.
Right now, most pollsters weight their raw data based on turnout percentages from the last election, when Democrats voted in good numbers. If Democrats feel their guy is doomed, alot of them won't vote ala '96 with Republicans. And no one likes to back a sure loser so Undecideds will not flock to Kerry if they think he's going to lose anyway.
More importantly, Nader WILL be on the ballot in OH. This is a disaster for Kerry.
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