Skip to comments.Expect McCain to replay 1912.
Posted on 09/08/2004 1:08:08 PM PDT by wcdukenfield
I look for something close to a rerun of the 1912 presidential election in 2008.
President William Howard Taft was the incumbent Republican. Ex-president Theodore Roosevelt, a good big-government progressive, was unhappy with his successor, so he decided to challenge Taft in the Republican primary. Roosevelt lost. He was popular, but he was also controversial within the party.
Roosevelt then bolted the Republican party, formed the Bull Moose party, and, of course, ran for president.
Woodrow Wilson wound up the unexpected nominee of the Democratic party. Wilson won the presidency with 42 percent of the vote, with Roosevelt coming in second in the popular vote, and Taft last.
John McCain fancies himself another Teddy Roosevelt. He invokes TR's name all the time to justify his anti-free-speech, anti-free-enterprise liberalism. I am convinced that his media schtick (which the press loves) is part of McCain's strategy to eventually lead his own revolt, at which time he'll need and receive their help.
And look at the rest of McCain's behavior. He campaigns for George Bush, but he will not criticize John Kerry. In fact, he says Kerry would be a good commander-in-chief, which no Republican believes (except, perhaps, for David Gergen). He has positioned himself as a so-called independent and progressive, and a self-proclaimed figure of unity and bipartisanship. And McCain has spent years in the Senate attacking the structure of the political parties ? the primary target of the so-called "reforms" of the McCain-Feingold bill, which undermined severely the parties' ability to raise funds (specifically, "soft money" contributions).
I believe McCain is and has been planning another run for the presidency. He cannot win the Republican nomination, which is a lesson he learned in 2000. But he is far better positioned to run as a third-party candidate than Ross Perot was, and Perot got 19 percent of the vote in 1992. My prediction: McCain will either seek the Republican nomination in 2008, or bolt from the party and announce an independent candidacy (like his hero Teddy Roosevelt) ? or he will skip that process altogether and start out as an independent (which I believe is less likely). In any event, in 2008 McCain will run as the unity candidate. Republicans, beware.
Mark R. Levin is host of a nightly radio show on WABC 770.
McCain is old and not popular with the base...won't survive a primary.
Mark Levin thinks McCain may do this.
Right on the money - especially his knowing he can't win the GOP primary. If he thought he had a shot, he wouldn't be trying to cut Zell of at the knees with Brokow during the GOP convention.
McCain is too old to pull this one off. Teddy Roosevelt was much younger and more popular.
I dont trust Mccain but he is smarter than that.
Ohhh. Would McCain step into a void left by Kerry resigning from candidacy? That one hadn't crossed my mind.
McCain was born in 1936, which would make him 72 in 2008. His wife, age 49, suffered a stroke in April this year. I seriously doubt that McCain would want to undergo the rigors of a Presidential campaign at 72 and put his wife through the experience again. McCain also had cancer surgery from his recurring melanoma. I just don't see McCain running for national political office again.
McCain isn't stupid. Even if he wanted to be president, there is no way he could ever do it as a third party or independent candidate. And he knows it.
20 years younger and in better health, maybe. Not today.
He can't do it on this election.
The dates to register for the ballot in most states has passed.
Bull (Moose): Expect McCain to replay 1912. ^
Posted by xsysmgr
On News/Activism ^ 09/08/2004 11:05:42 AM PDT · 23 replies · 1,025+ views
I suggest you research the relevance of having the candidate's name on the ballot, in a presidential election.
The GOP and DEM parties are on the ballot in all states, and electors (and alternates) have been named in all 50 states. If the named candidate becomes unavailable, the party, and the electors, remain on the ballot. If the party gets a majority of electoral votes, it can replace a candidate that is unavailable.
Unavailabaility can result from withdrawal due to scandal, health, or any other reason.
This author is asssuming Mcain will make it to 2008 without a brain meltdown
In fact, he says Kerry would be a good commander-in-chief, which no Republican believes (except, perhaps, for David Gergen).
Gergen is no Republican. He is a back-stabbing Judas who has worked in Republican and Democrat administrations but who went over to the dark side under the evil spell of the Clintoons.
Big weakness of this argument: This time the role of "Taft" would be played by Dick Cheney. But there is zero chance Cheney will run. So there is no quasi-incument to run against. This theory doesn't make much sense.
True in most states but not all.
kabar: True in most states but not all.
I would think allowances would have to be made in every state, should a party get enough votes to earn electors, but the presidential candidate was not available when the electors are required, by Federal law (3 USC 1), to cast ballots for a PERSON for the Office of President.
But I haven't studied all of the state laws. As you know, the general point I am making in these posts is that the deadlines for naming KERRY and BUSH do not mean a different DEM or GOP could be elected president this year, even if the ballots in all 50 states still recite KERRY and BUSH.
Agree with your premise. Some states, like North Dakota, do require the Presidential candidate to name electors, but the vast majority use the political parties to name them, so the candidate can be replaced without too much effort. The names of the candidates on the ballots may be a different story.
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