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High Storm Cycle is Here to Stay
The Miami Herald.com ^ | Sept 8, 2004 | Martin Merzer

Posted on 09/08/2004 8:35:31 AM PDT by I still care

High storm cycle is here to stay

BY MARTIN MERZER

mmerzer@herald.com

Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal.

Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below-average activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet.

''People are suddenly alert, suddenly paying attention,'' said Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key. ``They can see now that we are in an active era. . . . People should realize that it is very unlikely that Frances is the last storm the U.S. will see this year.''

Which brings us to Hurricane Ivan.

Though subject to considerable error, long-range forecasts are consistently suggesting that Ivan will strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday as a vicious Category 4 hurricane. After that, the outlook is unclear, but the Tuesday night forecast placed much of the state in the five-day cone of probability.

When asked if Florida could endure another hurricane, Gov. Jeb Bush pointed Tuesday to a button he wore on his shirt. It read: ``I survived damn near everything.''

''We will survive whatever comes at us,'' he said. ``We're an incredibly resilient state. I'm not being defiant; I'm only suggesting we can meet this challenge.''

THREE STRIKES

If Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year. And September and October tend to be among the most active months of the six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30.

''The season is still young,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade. ``It certainly seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has been predicted. The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more often in the last few years.''

A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -- with winds higher than 110 mph -- attacked Florida. ''And that doesn't include the other [less powerful] hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.

Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between 1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and scientists.

''The implications are much-increased damage when storms make landfall,'' Goldenberg said, ``and the potential for major loss of life in the event of an evacuation foul-up during a rapidly intensifying storm.''

He has more than academic interest in this. Goldenberg and his family were nearly killed when Hurricane Andrew crushed their South Dade home in 1992.

DISTINCT PATTERNS

Research he later conducted with NOAA scientist Chris Landsea, private expert William Gray and others found distinct patterns of low-activity hurricane periods and high-activity periods, each of which endured for decades. These patterns, unrelated to the current concern over global warming, are caused by regular cycles of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, such as unusually warm water in hurricane breeding grounds.

One period of ''hyperactivity'' ended in 1970 and was followed by a 24-year lull. The new period of heightened activity began in 1995 and could last for another 10 to 30 years, according to their report, which was reviewed by peers and published in 2001 in the journal Science.

MAJOR STORMS

In the past few years, and particularly this year, the statistics related to the number, power and duration of storms appear to verify the report's depressing conclusions, especially when major hurricanes are considered.

This is significant because, though relatively few in number, major hurricanes -- Category 3 or higher -- cause 80 percent of all damage from tropical weather.

''We're not talking about stronger hurricanes than in the past,'' Goldenberg said. ``We're talking about more of the stronger hurricanes.''

The long-term average, including relatively quiet periods and busy periods, is 2.6 major hurricanes a year.

Between 1971 and 1994, only four years had more than two major hurricanes and none had more than three. Between 1995 and 2003, a much shorter period, seven years had three or more major hurricanes. And we've already had four major storms this year -- Alex, Charley, Frances and Ivan.

All the other numbers tell the same tale: total storms, total strength, total duration, Caribbean hurricanes, October and November hurricanes are each at least 100 percent -- and in some cases 500 or 1,000 percent -- higher since the lull.

''That's a humongous increase,'' Goldenberg said. ``This is striking. This is not a little signal. It would be like saying the average temperature is 15 degrees warmer than last summer. It's huge. It's huge.''

Worse, atmospheric steering currents have changed to our disadvantage.

During the beginning of this active period, a persistent and beneficial bend in the jet stream carried hurricanes away from Florida. Now, that phenomenon has disappeared, replaced by a persistent ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that is pushing them toward Florida.

What can you do?

Only one thing: Prepare.

''People should realize that, active year or slow year, we can still get hit,'' Goldenberg said. ``Remember, Andrew hit during a below-average year. The higher activity is just all the more reason to remind people that they can't let their guard down.''

Herald staff writer Mary Ellen Klas contributed to this report.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: charley; climatechange; florida; frances; hurricane; ivan; jebbush
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Thought gulf residents might find this interesting. As a Floridian, I am really concerned what will happen to the insurance rates around here. In the Tampa Bay area, we haven't had any major storms for many years, yet always were being reminded by the companies what a risk we were. Now that it seems we are getting hit, I wonder what will happen.

It seems to me that faithfully paying premiums for years and years without any hurricanes should give you a little bit of grace once you get some, but hey, what do I know.

1 posted on 09/08/2004 8:35:40 AM PDT by I still care
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To: I still care

I can't imagine why all those people retire and move to Florida - who wants to deal with hurricanes every year? If you want warm weather, retire to Arizona or New Mexico or California.


2 posted on 09/08/2004 8:40:46 AM PDT by Steve_Seattle
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To: I still care

"As a Floridian, I am really concerned what will happen to the insurance rates around here."


It's not just your insurance rates that suffer. In my case I have to have flood insurance even though there has never been a flood recorded here. Apparently it's one of the ways insurance companies cover their costs. Luckilly I think we can drop the flood insurance when we make our final payments on the house.


3 posted on 09/08/2004 8:42:32 AM PDT by cripplecreek (The economy won't matter if you're dead.)
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To: Steve_Seattle

I am tired of paying for other peoples desire to live on barrier islands.


4 posted on 09/08/2004 8:45:26 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (.)
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To: Steve_Seattle

Well, as I said, there haven't been any hurricanes in the Tampa area for years. Perhaps someone could look it up for me, but people here remember very few.

Florida has it's virtues. Hurricanes are not one of them. Personally, I've always worried about sinkholes more.


5 posted on 09/08/2004 8:45:57 AM PDT by I still care (Have you heard about the Democrat cocktail? It's ketchup with a chaser.)
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To: I still care
Here is the North, we'll have snow in the winter, rain in the spring, sunny days and cloudy days, warm days, cold days, windy days, still days.

That's about it for my predictions for 2005. Bet I'm 100% correct!!

I'm also predicting hurricanes in Florida in 2005. Surprise!!

6 posted on 09/08/2004 8:47:42 AM PDT by Sacajaweau (God Bless Our Troops!!)
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To: cripplecreek

Flood insurance is a federal program - insurance companies are not involved. Second, we had a tropical storm a few years ago near the big bend in Florida, which caused major flooding and damage in areas which were considered non-flood zones. So, one never knows.


7 posted on 09/08/2004 8:49:17 AM PDT by Humvee
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To: Steve_Seattle

Guess what Steve? Over the weekend a friend of ours told us he has read the newest, best place INSTEAD of Florida is now.......drum roll, please......the Pacific Northwest!!!


8 posted on 09/08/2004 8:50:32 AM PDT by goodnesswins (VICTORY...........brings peace.)
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To: Humvee

I live ABOVE a dam in the irish HILLS area of Michigan. unless the river backs up from lake Erie there will be no flood.


9 posted on 09/08/2004 8:50:46 AM PDT by cripplecreek (The economy won't matter if you're dead.)
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To: I still care

Insurance is going to be interesting, for sure.


10 posted on 09/08/2004 8:50:56 AM PDT by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)
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To: I still care

The guy who wrote this piece will be fired by sundown. Isn't he aware that it's against the policy of the Miami Herald to publish anything bad weather- or climate-related news without blaming George W. Bush?


11 posted on 09/08/2004 8:55:05 AM PDT by You Dirty Rats (WE WILL WIN WITH W - Isara)
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To: JulieRNR21; kinganamort; katherineisgreat; floriduh voter; summer; Goldwater Girl; windchime; ...
Florida Freeper

I'm compiling a list of FReepers in Florida for use in the upcoming elections.
If you want to be added, please FReepMail me.


12 posted on 09/08/2004 8:58:14 AM PDT by Joe Brower (The Constitution defines Conservatism.)
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To: I still care
If you want to live in Florida, you should build a disposable house and keep a truck gassed up in your driveway to cart away your valuables each fall.

Or keep it simple and live in the truck.

13 posted on 09/08/2004 9:00:36 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: Joe Brower

Hurricane Preparedness

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.

1) There is no need to panic.
2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one." Based on our insurance industry experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1: Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2: Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3: Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.

Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE: If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built
(2) It is located in Wisconsin

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.

SHUTTERS: Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:

Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.

Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.

Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.

Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.

Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc... You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately).

EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area). The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES: If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:

23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that when the power goes off, turn out to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)

A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)

A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators.

$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: Its great living in Paradise.


14 posted on 09/08/2004 9:00:45 AM PDT by Chieftain (Support the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and expose Hanoi John's FRAUD!)
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To: I still care; RMDupree; Sam Cree; Lil'freeper; ksen; RosieCotton; JenB; Wneighbor; SuziQ; ...
Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal.

That's it. I'm moving to the desert.

15 posted on 09/08/2004 9:02:29 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Like generations before us, we have a calling from beyond the stars to stand for freedom.)
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To: I still care
High Storm Cycle is Here to Stay

And the reason(s) for this. . .

A. Evil white, heterosexual males
B. The mean-spirited Republican Congress
C. Greedy corporate CEOs
D. George W. Bush

/sarcasm

16 posted on 09/08/2004 9:03:09 AM PDT by Euro-American Scum (A poverty-stricken middle class must be a disarmed middle class)
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To: Corin Stormhands

Funny that Richmons is getting so many tropical events.
I hope that also is not a new trend.


17 posted on 09/08/2004 9:04:20 AM PDT by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)
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To: I still care
Our planet is experiencing significant weather changes primarily caused by the sun's solar cycles and other profound outside forces. The whole solar system is effected, not just planet earth. There are reports posted on This Site half-way down just below "Astronomy Picture of the Day." One report is very long and has some frightening images. But the most intriguing scientific information is posted on pages 2 and 3 of that report. Also, there are some beautiful graphics on those pages representing magnetic solar forces.

Take care, be safe, think more deeply. The world is about to change.

18 posted on 09/08/2004 9:05:03 AM PDT by ex-Texan
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To: I still care

When I lived in Miami and, later, Key West, we expected a couple of hurricanes to hit every year. So things are back to normal.


19 posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:19 AM PDT by KeyWest
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To: I still care
IT'S ALL BUSH'S FAULT!
20 posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:41 AM PDT by aShepard
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