Rasmussen has Bush tied with Kerry at 47.3%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9/7/2004 | Heff

[Heff]

Tuesday September 07, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 47% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

[jern]

seem my tagline

[Constitution Day]

So true.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Rasmussen is apparently weighting his results by assuming that the relative proportion of self-proclaimed 'Icans and 'Rats will be identical to what was observed in 2000. If the proportion is different today than what it was four years ago, Rasmussen's results are guaranteed to be wrong.

[Illinois Rep]

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1258

Gives a good look at Gallup's polling and accuracy to the actual election.

[COEXERJ145]

It doesn't matter who has been around longer. Plenty of sleeper trolls out there.

And you don't deserve any respect. Respect is earned, not given away and your actions show you haven't earned one single bit.

[COURAGE]

And ditto to you.

You just an echo chamber with no independent thought.

Like one tag line clearly stated, you only believe polls which show Bush ahead. Guys like you thinks it's in the bag. And guys like you will get Kerry elected.

[BlackRazor]

However, I don't trust his polls because the only time he agrees with the other polls is when the others show the race close. Does his poll ever show anyone with a lead beyond the MOE? I have a hard time believing that the electorate has been that evenly divided for that long.

I've been keeping a rolling average of all poll results (by all pollsters) since May. I have yet to show either candidate ahead outside the margin of error.

[Petronski]

Trolling is not a function of seniority or lack thereof. Trolling is a behavior. You are a troll.

[ableChair]

I actually think Rasmussen is doing us a favor.

Except for the fact that is constitutes poll pushing Bush DOWN! A lot of Americans are very, well, sheepish, and their opinions about who to vote for follow polls. COURAGE is a good example of someone who either doesn't believe this or doesn't want to see Bush re-elected. This is a public forum and there are lots of noteworthy people that read these threads. But you can't tell them that, their ego is more important.

[JohnnyZ]

This is out of 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents. This really means Bush has a small lead somewhere near 3-6 points.

True.

Let's start off with 100 people, 39D, 35R, 26Ind.

48 like Bush, 48 Kerry, 4 Undecided

The GOP Convention comes along, and three Democrats say "Zell is right, I can't be in today's Democratic Party" so they start calling themselves Independents and two decide to vote for Bush, one becomes undecided. Three independents listen to Arnold talk about why he's a Republican and say, ya know, I think that's me, I could be a Republican and they all decide to vote for Bush (let's say one was already a Bush supporter, one was Kerry, one undecided).

Now of those same 100 people, 52 support Bush, 44 Kerry.

Rasmussen, however, looks at those 100 people, and now sees:

36D, 38R, 26Ind

which doesn't match his pre-determined mix. So he re-weights the sample so it shows 39D, 35R, 26Ind, and comes up with

Bush 49.5%
Kerry 46.5%
Undecided 4%

[ableChair]

Typical of your DU arse latching on to the most disputed, non-quoted poll in America, when Zogby, Newsweek, Time Magazine, and Gallup all have Bush leading. WE ALL KNOW WHO AND WHAT YOU ARE!! T R O L L ! ! !

You and many others have noticed this and are getting really tired of it. This is suppposed to be a conservative forum but they allow anyone to come on here and poll push Bush DOWN. I don't get it. But you're right.

[ableChair]

Hey newbie, respect your elders. And take your head out of sand. If you think this election is going to be a cake walk, you can say President Kerry. This is going one tough fight.
Now go, go to your crib, it's pass your nap time.

Empty invectives and juvenile insults don't change what others can obviously see. Your own actions prove that you don't want Bush to be re-elected. Why don't you go to DU?

[ableChair]

These Freepers who have their head in the sand. They now think this is a cake walk. With this thinking, out next president will be Kerry

You're arguing extremes. I'm not expecting this to be a cakewalk but I'm also not taking Rasmussen's data at face value in light of all the other data. You are selectively biased toward Rasmussen. That's the problem.

[ableChair]

Like one tag line clearly stated, you only believe polls which show Bush ahead. Guys like you thinks it's in the bag. And guys like you will get Kerry elected.

And guys like YOU will get Bush defeated. You are poll pushing and you know it. Just admit that you support Kerry and save us all the hyperbola and hollow deception.

[RockinRight]

And they are oversampling Republicans. When corrected for normal turnout, Bush's lead is anywhere from 3 to 6 points.

Yes, this is true. All so next week, when they release a more balanced poll, they can say Kerry is "closing in on Bush" or some crap. Fact is, W is ahead, however, and by enough of a margin that while we can't assume he's gonna win, it looks good. We must act like we're 10 pts. down, however.

[RockinRight]

Looks like Gallup's been pretty close, within 2 pts. except in 92 where it appears about 5% of voters that were supporting Clinton ended up punching in Perot, which could be looked at as an abberation.

[comebacknewt]

These numbers are absurd. There is no way this is a tied race at this stafe.

That said, I do think Kerry, and the MSM, will turn this into a very close race eventually. They are going slime W continuously for the next two months and some of his support will erode.

W will pull out a close win in November, but it won't be by more than a couple of percentage points.

[montag813]

National polls are irrelevant.

[Conservomax]

Yeah, it means that bush is killing him. If RasSKEWsen poll has them tied.

[COURAGE]

You sound nothing but an echo chamber.