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To: CommerceComet
However, I don't trust his polls because the only time he agrees with the other polls is when the others show the race close. Does his poll ever show anyone with a lead beyond the MOE? I have a hard time believing that the electorate has been that evenly divided for that long.

I've been keeping a rolling average of all poll results (by all pollsters) since May. I have yet to show either candidate ahead outside the margin of error.

87 posted on 09/07/2004 10:06:54 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor

My point is that the other polls show some movement in response to events. Rasmussen never does. The recent polls have shown the President with a lead beyond the MOE and I believe that Kerry had a lead above the MOE in some earlier polls before the SBVT ads hit. Even the ultra-partisan Chrissy Mathews agrees that Bush is ahead by around seven points. The actions of the Democrats since the Republican convention have spoken loudly that they know Kerry is behind.

Merging several polls and keeping a moving average is not the best way to determine if individual polls have leads above the MOE. I guessing that if you drop Rasmussen out, this last round of polls would show the President with an above-the-MOE lead.


107 posted on 09/07/2004 11:01:18 AM PDT by CommerceComet
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