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Why does Iran want to provoke a response from the US?

Posted on 09/06/2004 10:58:13 AM PDT by jim macomber

This is a question to the collective analysis of the group.

I just watched an interview on Fox with the head of an interntational strategic analysis company (didn't get the name but it was something like that). At one point, he strongly made the point that not only was/is Al Queda involved in the Beslan massacre but so was Iran. And not only that (according to the interviewee) Iran is making it clear that they were involved in the "hope of provoking a response from the US?"

The interviewer (as they do) went right past that to her next predetermined question and didn't ask - to me, anyway, the obvious and compelling follow-up.

Why?

Why would Iran WANT to provoke a reaction from the US? - Because they actually think the world would side with them? (Watching the EU reaction to Beslan, you can see why they might think that.) - An excuse to nuke Israel? - Are they still operating under the illusion that we won't fight back? - And maybe the scariest question of all. Do they actually think we would turn out GWB for Kerry if they provoke a response from us?


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; War on Terror; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: iran
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To: jim macomber

The mullahs are perhaps trying to strengthen support at home by provoking an attack by the US in which the motives for such an attack are muddied by the use of Iranian proxies.


41 posted on 09/06/2004 12:26:43 PM PDT by Ajnin
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To: jim macomber

To get the $100 billion aid package that comes after the war.


42 posted on 09/06/2004 12:39:27 PM PDT by Diplomat
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To: jim macomber
Good question Jim. I'm sure there are tons of "sub-issues" that drive this behavior but the overarching theme is that it's their nature. Remember the frog & the scorpion parable.

Though they are Persian they are in the Arab sphere of influence and we have all seen the Arab's "all bark no bite" behavior over the past decade. Americans, in general, subscribe to the theory of walking softly and carrying a big stick. We are more likely to remain relatively quiet when provoked and then unleash Hell upon those who deserve it.

It appears the Middle East subscribes to the polar opposite approach. Probably because a loud bluff has backed off their regional enemies in the past. Like threat behavior amongst animals...designed to reduce actual combat and show who's dominant.

Being flanked by us East & West they are resorting to "what they do" as a defense mechanism. Of course, it's futile. We know that, and they will soon enough.

LBT

-=-=-
43 posted on 09/06/2004 12:46:58 PM PDT by LiberalBassTurds (Al Qaeda needs to know we are fluent in the "dialogue of bullets.")
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To: Inge C

Links? Serious charges, need documentation.


44 posted on 09/06/2004 12:48:26 PM PDT by gogipper
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To: swilhelm73
Iran, however, financially supports and trains Muslim fighters in the Balkans (Russia supports the Serbs), and also facilitates Chechen resistance with ammunition, logistics, weapons - some provided by NK in exchange for Iranian oil and hard currency.

Iran is playing the wire. They want relations with Russia for nuclear technology. They want relations with NK for missile technology. They support and control Shia elements in Southern Iraq, in an effort to gain control over the Shat Al Arab region (real estate taken by Saddam during the Iran/Iraq war) and to delay the US effort to stand up a democracy. They are making a bet that they can get a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it before Israel or the Unite States can respond.

Iran is supporting the terrorists in Iraq for the sole purpose of delay. Nothing more. As long as the United States is trying to control land and population in Iraq, it will not be able to position forces against Syria or Iran.

Beslan was a Chechen operation, using Arab mercenaries and AQ training, with Iranian intelligence and logistical support.

I would be very interested in the Serial Numbers and the chemical markers of the weapons used in the School.

I'll wager - NK supplied weapons, explosives and ammunition, with Iranian money in the form of hard currency (US dollars) for the facilitation of local supplies (trucks, boxes, food, bribes).

Iran is playing hard ball. The mercs may have been AW Arabs (not Persian) - but you can be sure that the Persians have a vested interest in keeping things off balance.
45 posted on 09/06/2004 1:05:31 PM PDT by PokeyJoe (The plural for RAT is RATS, not RATICS)
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To: jim macomber

Thay have a death wish!


46 posted on 09/06/2004 1:17:53 PM PDT by blackie (Be Well~Be Armed~Be Safe~Molon Labe!)
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To: jim macomber

bump


47 posted on 09/06/2004 1:19:18 PM PDT by Centurion2000 (Truth, Justice and the Texan Way)
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To: jim macomber
Why would Iran WANT to provoke a reaction from the US? -

Because every time someone provoked us for the last 30 years we ran. Even the events after Sep 11 are not much of an exception: one half of the country is opposed to the war. Every time they challenge us and we do not provide a vigorous response (and we would not go to war with Iran any time soon precisely because of our internal weakness), that weakness comes to the surface. We become even more weak, and more of our foes are encouraged. This is a very intelligent strategy of gradual weakening.

Nobody challenges a strong opponent --- and that is the real answer.

48 posted on 09/06/2004 2:09:01 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: trebb

I was surprised to even see the question asked here, as I believed this to be so obvious as to be in general acceptance.

Muslims have few heroes. They were handed their ass in three wars with Israel, and in turn developed the martyr strategy to both redirect attention away from the lavish lifestyles of the ruling classes, and to assuage damaged pride. The ideas have taken root to the effect that many, including Bin Laden himself, believe that terrorist attacks, which amount to no more than a pinprick on the global strategic scale, can actually achieve a Muslim victory.

In any event, any person or entity who stands up to the United States, Israel, western cultures, or the UN, any of those who supported Israel in any way and "robbed the Muslims of their god given victory", is afforded much status and sympathy by the general Muslim population.

Iran has to generate as much of this kind of sympathy now as is possible, for two interrelated reasons. One, because they know thatr Bush cannot react right now, not for lack of troops, but to avoid the warmonger label and a firestorm of controversy just before the election. Two, in hopes of swinging the election to kerry if Bush so much as utters a hostile word.

That Bush fully understands this is evident from the restraint shown so far. Iran has trained suicide bombers and deployed them to Iraq, we have many of them in custody, and they announced to the world that they were doing so.

No response from Bush.

Iran has funded Moqtada al Sadr, no response from Bush.

Six hundred of Al Qaeda's people are in Iran, congregated at the nuclear sites Iran bulldozed over to hide, no response from Bush.

Iran has openly and directly threatened military action against the US and against Israel, right up to and including massing four divisions on the Iraq/Iran border above Khorramshar, no response from Bush.

Shiploads of Iranian missiles headed for Israel, no response from Bush.

You can draw one of two conclusions. That Bush is blissfully unaware of any issue involving Iran, or that he has a plan of his own and isn't talking about it.

An old saw, about working men in general, when they're complaining, all is well. When they go silent, watch out.

Bush isn't talking, because he's too busy. Afghanistan fell, Iraq fell, and the troops for Iran are even now being drawn down from across the globe.

Unrealized to just about all involved, the Al Qaeda/Iran/Saudi billionaire alliance is working themselves into a corner. I don't know who's formulating policy on the enemy side, but it certainly isn't a general or anyone else who can read a map.

Iran is currently surrounded on three sides, west by US forces in Turkey, Iraq and the Persion Gulf, south by US Naval forces in the Arabian Sea, and east by US forces in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. This is no accident. Afghanistan went first after 9/11 only because of the American public's perception that Bin Laden and Al Qaeda's headquarters were there. Iraq, while an attractive target on it's own, was strategically only a stepping stone. You can't drive on Tehran with 23 unopposed Iraqi divisions on your left flank. Not while Saddam's in power.

Who has been a state sponsor of terrorism for more than three decades, running both Hezbollah and Hamas, executing terrorist operations in Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, South America, Europe, and now Iraq< housing Imad Mugniyah until only recently, providing safe haven for Al Qaeda?

Who has demonstrated chemical and biological weapons programs in effect right now today?

Who has functioning nuclear reactors, heavy water plants, enrichment programs?

What countries fit the above description, and are controlled by an admittedly hardline Islamist government, and run their people out in the streets at least twice a year to chant "Death to America"?

Only one country fits this bill, and none of the above information is new or astonishing. Every piece of the puzzle was in place long before 9/11, and was certainly available to any strategist planning a Global War on Terror in the days after 9/11.

Iran is and always has been HVT Number One, since no later than 9/13. Understanding this, just about every question relating to the war in Iraq is answered.

Militarily, it's always been Iran.

When Tehran falls, Damascus will follow within weeks, perhaps even hours. Syria will be geographically, economically, militarily, and politically isolated on a global scale. The flip-flop will make a combined Kerry and Qadaffi look like pillars of stability, and then...

The....bank.....stands alone, with the oil undamaged.

But militarily, Iran has made an absolutely devastating mistake. The kind of mistake that will turn a rout, like Iraq, into a devastation, a killed, or captured and interrogated to the very last man final defeat.

By their own hand, the absolute last avenue for escape is now closed, or soon will be, by a force so angered by the deliberate, preplanned, slaughter of its children that it really doesn't even know its angry yet, not to any degree even approaching what the rage will become over the next days and weeks.

Iran is now completely and totally surrounded.

There is no place left to run.





49 posted on 09/06/2004 3:04:05 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

P.S.

When the cornered animal realizes that it is cornered....


50 posted on 09/06/2004 3:10:26 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: jim macomber

Islam worships death.
They think in massive wipe out directed at them by the most wonderful and godly nation on the face of the earth, the USA, that Allah would back them in power, and wipe out who they believe is the great satan.

they don't hope it.
they believe it.

they believe that the islamessiah will come back and fry americans into the very pit of hell, and exalt the UMMAH.

little do they know, that the UMMAH is nothing more than a crapper... allah has every nation on earth dump on them, and they are full of the filth that every other nation of the planet rejects... the arab "nation" is a crapper. f.o.s.

But they TRULY believe that Allah is going to wipe us out for slapping them down. He won't.

In fact I rather expect the REAL God, will be happy to see the people on this planet defend themselves against religious nuts who want to shoot little kids in the back for the glory of a false God... who the arabs have named allah... whose work we recognise as that of none other than SATAN himself.

that is why they want to provoke us. THEY think if enough of them fry, bleed or burn to death allah will rise up in their defense. It's one of their religious ceremonies, where they beat themselves bloody for the purpose of moral redemption from Allah. They do it every year.

It is ceremony of much blood. And it is supplemented year round by blown up jews, christians and other religions and peoples... blood is delicious in their culture.

They are idiots. They wanna be martyrs. We should oblige them.


51 posted on 09/06/2004 4:16:02 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (Robert the "RINO")
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To: jeffers

when cornered and face with death?
I have seen animals crap themselves and urinate uncontrollably.

we are in the crap stage.
Iran is dead. The democrats just haven't realized it yet.
75 days from now, it will be more apparent.


52 posted on 09/06/2004 4:21:11 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (Robert the "RINO")
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To: jeffers

I remember when some said, "Iran will fall within weeks of Iraq" . . . . one of the bargains of time to invade is time to prepare.

I'll hold that Russia will find enough evidence in Beslan to provide logistical basing for the upcoming US operation.


53 posted on 09/06/2004 4:38:43 PM PDT by PokeyJoe (The plural for RAT is RATS, not RATICS)
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To: PokeyJoe

Jeffers had some interesting theories.

You made a timely remark about the Russian military since the events in Beslan, etc.. Have you visited the sites that have discussed since at least June 2004, the placement of 40,000 Russian troops in Iraq in October or Nobember.

Given US intentions about future troop deployments and the above, one has to wonder, and presents interesting angles to Jeffers comments.


54 posted on 09/06/2004 4:55:58 PM PDT by AWestCoaster (FACTS are stubborn things. Your entitled to your own opinion, but not entitled to your own facts.)
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To: Robert_Paulson2

No question about the outcome, but still, it's not a good idea to corner an animal without both realizing that you have cornered it, and what the implications of that are.

The last grizzly attack in Colorado happened not because Jim Wiesman cornered the bear, it happened because unbeknownst to Jim, he and his partner's actions combined with the terrain to corner the bear.

Those "Silkworms" are slow and old, but a whole bunch of them could easily saturate a lone Aegis platform.


55 posted on 09/06/2004 5:04:29 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: jim macomber

Thank you so much for your post, question and ping! If Iran is baiting for a response in this terrorist act, it would be from Russia primarily. And that is illogical.


56 posted on 09/06/2004 7:23:18 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: jim macomber

I think several of the replies are correct. It's not just one reason.
For now, think of it as "rope-a-dope" technique, as far as U.S. response/or not goes. And I hope there's NOT a response for a little while. From anyone.


57 posted on 09/06/2004 8:50:31 PM PDT by nuconvert (Everyone has a photographic memory. Some don't have film.)
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To: jim macomber
The Iranian regime is in a bad spot. Reviled as corrupt, repressive, and undemocratic by an alienated and pro-Western populace, the regime may be nearing an end through organic decay and loss of legitimacy. The ruling mullahs and their families are looting Iran's oil revenues and business sector, fattening their foreign bank accounts, and enjoying unaccountable power and lavish lifestyles -- and their people know and resent them for it.

If allowed to progress naturally, popular demonstrations would quickly get out of control and overturn the regime, rather like the shah and his gang got pushed out of office. How then can Iran's mullahs regain public favor and extend their rule?

The regime would welcome a conflict with the US if: (1) it was confident that the conflict would not be a full war to the finish and that they would not lose face; and (2) the circumstances stirred the nationalism of the Iranian public so as to lead them to again support the regime in a conflict with the Americans.

In addition, the Iranian government lacks a coherent center of authority that can restrain and discipline its numerous terrorist, spying, and police agencies and groups. As in Japan in the 1930's and in other decaying regimes, Iranian leaders are subject to assassination or removal from power if they offend or disappoint those among them with guns and a readiness to kill.

So, to sum up, as a matter of strategy, the Iranian mullahs see the right kind of conflict with the US as desireable, if dangerous, and are otherwise unable to exercise control over terrorist elements that seek such a conflict as a matter of principle.
58 posted on 09/06/2004 10:38:56 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: jim macomber

As I understand it, Osama Bin Laden wanted a huge response from the US, so that the entire Muslim world would be a target of the US and all Muslims would rise up against the US.

He was very disappointed that our response was surgical in nature, taking out specific terrorists and terror enabling governments.

I would imagine Iran is acting the way it is because of the "Strong Horse" argument and also because they want to be proactive in their fight with the US, rather than wait to be destroyed at a time of Uncle Sam's choosing. However, if I live to be 1000, I'll never understand the Jihadists.


59 posted on 09/07/2004 5:49:04 AM PDT by VisualizeSmallerGovernment (Question Liberal Authority)
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