Posted on 09/06/2004 10:58:13 AM PDT by jim macomber
This is a question to the collective analysis of the group.
I just watched an interview on Fox with the head of an interntational strategic analysis company (didn't get the name but it was something like that). At one point, he strongly made the point that not only was/is Al Queda involved in the Beslan massacre but so was Iran. And not only that (according to the interviewee) Iran is making it clear that they were involved in the "hope of provoking a response from the US?"
The interviewer (as they do) went right past that to her next predetermined question and didn't ask - to me, anyway, the obvious and compelling follow-up.
Why?
Why would Iran WANT to provoke a reaction from the US? - Because they actually think the world would side with them? (Watching the EU reaction to Beslan, you can see why they might think that.) - An excuse to nuke Israel? - Are they still operating under the illusion that we won't fight back? - And maybe the scariest question of all. Do they actually think we would turn out GWB for Kerry if they provoke a response from us?
"Don't make the mistake of looking for, or assuming, logical behavior in the mullah's actions. There's a method to their madness, but, madness it still is"
Excellent, excellent point. And well said.
Here's more Iran acting the bully: "Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi has bluntly rejected a nuclear disarmament plan floated by US vice presidential hopeful John Edwards, calling it "campaigning."
Under the plan, thought to have originated with US presidential hopeful John Kerry, Iran could keep its nuclear power plants if it gave up the right to retain bomb-making nuclear fuel.
Floated to the Washington Post last week by Senator Edwards, the proposal was seen in some quarters as an indication that a Kerry presidency would take a dramaticaly different tack in its handling of relations with Iran, which is officially listed by the US as a state sponsor of terrorism -- in fact, as the "most active state sponsor of terrorism in 2003."
Senator Edwards told the WPost that the proposal would represent a "great bargain" for Iran -- and that should Iran reject it, a Kerry administration would be forced to conclude that Iran actually was, as the Bush administration now contends, actively pursuing the weaponisation of nuclear materials." http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1208462/posts
The psychosis of Islamic martyrdom may have something to do with it. These people seem to suffer from low self-esteem, an intense inferiority complex, and they are pretty darn neurotic. A kaboom into paradise for them may be preferable to living in contemporary Iran.
They may also be jockeying into position to be the leader of this bizarre Islamo-fascist Empire they seek. There is a warped competition among them to display who are the most psychotic and enthusiastic warriors of "the prophet." Iran's certainly in that competition. If they had a hand in these recent mass murder attacks, it shows.
As insightful as it is disheartening.
"...they are dead wrong..."
If they succeed in provoking us, they are DEAD! And we now will have a new ally, Russia, as determined as we are.
But the first response would come from Russia, wouldn't it? Unless Iran is desirous to immanentize its own eschaton, inviting both Russia and the U.S. to do the honors.
That could be the start of something BIG! The Bear and the Eagle cleansing the ME? Hmmmmm.
That really draws the question, then, doesn't it. Is their mindset so warped or blinded that they seek to provoke the "Great Satan" and in so doing awaken and alienate the "Great Bear".
From your lips...
Madness, indeed, Ken5050.
In regard to the second objective, there are two goals: 1) to recruit more jihadists to kill themselves for the glory of killing Jews, honor to their families, and an eternity of sex with 72 virgins and 2) to pressure the West to put pressure on Israel to weaken vis-a-vis Palestine and the jihadists.
Iran wants to provoke a reaction against the US so that that military act will inspire MORE people to become jihadists. They know that, in the long run (100 yrs) they can win. But they need to force the US to appear to be the great Satan so that young Arabs will be willing to die for the cause.
To use the old Russian canard of U.S. hegemony... Look what it did for them... Made the current leadership look needed and invenerial... , know what I mean d;-)
thanks for the ping.
Iran's current leader need a greater enemy outside to keep their people in line. That is why I believe they are trying to provoke a crisis or low-level war.
Iran is running scared. They know they are next on the hitlist and are trying to provoke some sort of policy response while we are currently engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq and can not put our full attention to the military option against them at this time. This way, they can force us into some non-military response that can drag out for some time until they go completely hot with their nukes like North Korea. After that, the military response becomes much more dangerous and they believe that we will just enter into endless negotations with them as we do with North Korea and the military solution will then be taken off the table. IMHO
That would be my take too. Iran is trying to give a foothold to the "Bush is a dangerous, imperialistic, warmonger" crowd and give the "sensitive, nuanced" one a boost.
I think it goes beyond martydom. I think they all want to die to escape the depression and sexual repression they are locked into. They won't admit that, but why else would they continue to plunder and anger the world?
Answer: Because they are looking for the biggest badass on the block to pick on, knowing if they find one and enrage him sufficiently, they will be dispatched from their mortal coils. They will escalate their terror and abominations until then.
Personally, I think they found one and they will be getting their wish.
They believe their maniacal lies about Jihad, so provoking an all out world war against Christians and western civilization is right up their alley. The only thing better than having the Middle East go poof in a nuclear cloud, along with half the US and Europe, in the estimation of the lunatic mullahs, is the off chance they might be around to see it. Not.
Kerry and his campaign sent an e-mail to the Iranian Mullahs on 9 Feb 04, which was printed in their local paper. In that e-mail Kerry and his clan PROMISED that they will make 'good' for Bush's screw-ups. Kerry also received quite a large campaign donation from a shady Iranian Business Man. Kerry is good in dealing with the enemies in private as he has in Vietnam, China, Nicaragua, and now Iran. Anybody surprised? hardly? Kerry is indeed an enemy of the USA!
You're right. They believe we're paper tigers, thanks to Kerry and his pals and lately because Fallujah still exists.
That analysis is way off.
Iran's goal is to use their forces in southern Iraq to kill enough Americans that we withdraw and they can set up a puppet state - and make no mistake, the Shiite "resistance" in Iraq reports to Iran.
If they can't achieve that they want to at least keep us busy enough that we can't or won't deal with them before they develop nuclear weapons, which would make them largely untouchable militarily.
Further, Iran has good relations with Russia, and would not want to jeopardize those.
I have no doubt Iran has limited invovlement with AQ, but the Russian massacre is something that Iran has every reason to not have any hand in whatsoever...
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