Posted on 09/06/2004 4:39:18 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
BOSTON John F. Kerry has been here before.
Turning into the final eight weeks of the presidential campaign, the Democratic nominee faces doubts within his party and pundits increasingly skeptical of his chances against a resurgent President Bush, who seems to have momentum heading his way.
It is reminiscent of the Democratic race last winter, when Kerry was counted among the living dead and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was romping to the Democratic nomination or so it appeared.
But there is another contest that may be instructive, a campaign that political connoisseurs rate as one of the all-time classics: the 1996 U.S. Senate race between Kerry and Massachusetts' popular Republican governor, William F. Weld.
.....Although no election is like any other, the close-quarters combat of that Senate race offers clues to how the Democratic nominee operates under pressure, the steps he will take to win and suggests why Democrats, nervous as some may be, are counting on another Kerry comeback.
With his reelection bid lagging polls had Kerry trailing Weld in August by 8 percentage points the senator abruptly shed one of his top aides and replaced him with a pugnacious ad man who crafted a more partisan message emphasizing pocketbook issues. Kerry worked to overcome his stuffy reputation by revealing a more personal and humble side to voters. He dug into his wallet even though it meant ignoring the spending limits he originally agreed to abide by. And he fiercely defended his Vietnam War record when his credibility was called into question.
Each was identical to steps Kerry would take years later as he rallied from behind to capture the Democratic presidential nomination and, more recently, fend off charges he exaggerated his Vietnam combat record.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
What's the lat? Bird cage liner? Fish wrapper?
This isn't going to work in a presidential election for a couple of reasons:
1. Kerry could spend part of his own fortune that could make a huge difference in a couple of primary states in a small primary. In a national election, he would have to have 100 million on tap to do the same thing. He doesn't have that kind of money to do this.
2. The primaries consist of dem voters that could be easily swayed from one candidate to another, not caring who won as long as it wasn't Bush. That situation simply does not exist in a national election.
The Kerry campaign probably doesn't realize that he's already been defined and if people didn't undergo a dramatic shift in their opinions after the dem convention, then it isn't going to change much, except for a surge towards Bush after his convention.
1) Running as a liberal in Massachusetts is, let us just say is not the political challenge of the century
2) He was the incumbent Senator at the time
3) There are more nuances this time around. How does he try to capture more moderates in Ohio, without surrendering liberals to Nader in Florida? How does he spend time in Iowa, costing him campaign stops in Pennsylvania? He has to worry about losing Wisconsin and perhaps Minnesota.
I'm not saying that Kerry can't overcome these things, its just a great deal more complicated than a Senate race in MA.
Anyone who thinks that that Kerry is toast needs to remember that not only does Kerry have access to countless millions from the Soros and Heinz bank accounts, he also has most of the media willing to say or do just about anything to get him elected.
It is a long time until this election is over. Assume that Bush is way behind and campaign/contribute accordingly.
Ck post #65.
Indeed. 60 Minutes will be on the attack Sunday from what I understand.
Actually, he does. Anytime she wants, Teresa can open up the taps on the Heinz fortune (laundered through one or more "independent" 527s of course).
Does anyone doubt that Teresa would be willing to drop $100 Million or so of her late husband's fortune if it will buy 4 years in the Whitehouse? It would be tight, but she could probably scrape by on the $1 Billion or so she would have left.
You folks are thining too hard. Those polls are not made up to set up Bush for a fall. In politics it is always good to be ahead because people will go vote for the winner on election day.
I can hardly wait for Kerry to reveal a more personal and humble side, plus defend his Vietnam record! Whoopee!
Well, when Dukakis was governor, before he ran for President and climbed into that tank, he passed out 6000 phony Social Security numbers to illegal aliens so they could get welfare goodies and....register to vote you know what.
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