LABOR DAY POLLS in ELECTIONS OVER PAST 50 YEARS

AP/abilene2000.com ^ | September 1, 2000 | AP

[onyx]

Looking for Bush/Cheney.

[comebacknewt]

Nixon and Carter lost leads after Labor Day, but Nixon was not an incumbant and Carter had just a one point lead (39 - 38 as I recall).

No incumbant with a lead of five points or greater after Labor Day has ever lost. W will almost assuredly be up by at least five in the next Gallup poll. Lets hope history again repeats.

[IMRight]

Pinged for future reference

[marblehead17]

ping

[onyx]

Carter and Reagan were tied in mid September.
Must have been the "there you go again" debate
that sealed it for Reagan.

[speedy]

The good news is, that since 1960 at least, the candidate ahead at Labor Day won the election. The bad news is that in virtually every case, the candidate behind gained ground. I guess the key is, be far enough ahead on Labor Day and you should win it.

[onyx]

I have always wondered about that.
So stupid. Nixon was the overwhelming favorite.

[Brandon]

It's here:

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1216

It looks like Bush was up 47-46, and Gore won the popular vote by considerably less than 1%.

Looking at the rest of the numbers from the article you posted, the only candidate who has overcome a deficit of the one Kerry now faces is Harry Truman -- and he had the advantages of incumbency.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Carter lost in '80 after the 2nd debate, as I recall. Are you better off than you were 4 years ago??

[Trust but Verify]

Bush is running an excellent campaign. Unless he botches the debates, which I don't see him doing, I expect him to win in November. It could be close, or it could be a blowout

[speedy]

I've long wondered about that. The answer seems to be that Nixon truly was paranoid and never felt like his position was safe, even when it was.

[Mike Fieschko]

This is interesting.

But (and this isn't nit picking), someone doesn't win the election based on per centage of the vote. That's Gorespeak.

Whoever gets the majority of electoral college votes wins. But you knew that. Too bad the editor didn't (or drank the Gore kool aid).

[Azzurri]

What was the Gallup data showing in 2000 for Bush/Gore on Labor Day?

[onyx]

To: onyx
It's here:
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1216

It looks like Bush was up 47-46, and Gore won the popular vote by considerably less than 1%.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

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[writer33]

"The good news is, that since 1960 at least, the candidate ahead at Labor Day won the election. The bad news is that in virtually every case, the candidate behind gained ground. I guess the key is, be far enough ahead on Labor Day and you should win it."


That is exactly it. Because on Labor Day, and a well traveled retiree like yourself should know this, Americans start paying attention to the Presidential races. So, if you can get 'em while they're vacationing, then you'll certainly get 'em while they're paying attention!

[Mike Fieschko]

Didn't Carter say he asked daughter Amy for help in foreign policy? Wasn't that in one of the debates?

[onyx]

Good point.

[Azzurri]

It looks like Bush was up 47-46, and Gore won the popular vote by considerably less than 1%.

Thanks. Looks like the Gallup Labor Day poll is a pretty good barometer of the final outcome. Keeping my fingers crossed for a good Bush showing in tomorrow's Gallup!