Posted on 09/05/2004 3:20:19 AM PDT by bd476
000 WTNT34 KNHC 050837 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN SEP 05 2004
...IVAN BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 MILES... 1950 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION... 9.7 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
Hurricane Ivan is officially now the 5th Hurricane of the Season Ping.
LOL, that's a crazy Ivan if ever there was one.
This is forecast to become a Category 5 monster by the end of the week
It looks like God is angry.
Where did you read that, Spycatcher? I sure hope that you're wrong.
Hurricane Ivan is Still a Long Way Away Ping
Hurricane Ivan is now 5th Hurricane of the Season (and still a very long way away) Ping
It's BS...no actual forecasts from any actual agencies have that.
There's a proliferation of "weather weenie" sites doing their own "forecasts" and probably one somewhere has some sort of Cat 5 prediction from a non-meteorologist.
There's only one Cat 5 on average every 5 years, it never pays to forecast anything to Cat 5, even Cat 4s (not a single advisory from NHC actually forecast Frances to Cat 5, for example.
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...A WIND GUST TO
124 MPH AT PORT CANAVERAL...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMINI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...
AND ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.
AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE LARGE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...ABOUT 35
MILES EAST OF SEBRING FLORIDA. LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A CONTINUED WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF FRANCES MOVES OVER
LAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES. A WIND GUST OF 124 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PORT
CANAVERAL IN BREVARD COUNTY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE
LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...27.5 N... 80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
It's too early to tell what's going on with Ivan. It may curve off and miss the US entirely. It will be at least a week before we have the vaguest clue as to what it will hit (if anything) and what category it will be
"One ping only."
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