Posted on 09/04/2004 9:36:26 PM PDT by plushaye
General Election Cattle Call, September 4 Posted by Chris Bowers (Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)
National Popular Vote Projection Bush: 50.30 (47.98) Kerry: 47.70 (50.02) Status: Toss-up
Electoral College Projection Bush: 284, 194 solid (252, 161) Kerry: 254, 169 solid (286, 210) States Changing Hands from 2000: WI to Bush States Projected Under Three Points: AR, FL, NV and WI for Bush (48); IA, ME CD-1, MN, NH and NM for Kerry (27)
On the strength of a very real convention bounce, Bush has retaken the lead. In fact, this is his second largest lead in the national vote projection ever. He has passed Kerry in electoral votes, solid electoral votes, and even semi-solid electoral votes (states by more than three). Right now, conflicting results from, on the one hand, ARG, Zogby and Rassmussen and, on the other hand, Newsweek and Time, keep the race close. Also, the internals of the race have shifted toward Bush, as wrong track numbers are now only around 5 or 6 points in the red, and Bush's job approval is now clearly in the black.
I expect things to get worse before they get better. I have little doubt that when Gallup starts their tracking poll this week, it will show Bush up by 5-12. We will have to see what the future brings, but remember that right now Kerry is still close. Keep fighting the good fight.
I hope they are truly and deeply depressed. The more desperate they become, the more insane things they will say and do.
Here's a poster from that site today:
Both Time and Newsweek are showing Bush leading by 10 points. I think there's a chance that we'll look back from the perspective of mid-November, after a Bush win, and realize that the election was lost because of many factors, including a fatally flawed advertising strategy by Democrats. As a professor I know would say, Kerry has conducted his campaign "ass backwards," because he has refused to launch negative advertising while nonetheless attacking Bush on the stump. As you notice, the Bush campaign has taken the opposite strategy. Bush's attacks on the stump are there, but relatively restrained, but in the meatime the Bush campaign and its allies have launched more than $100 million dollars of effective negative attack ads against Kerry.
The decision not to launch negative ads against Bush was made by Kerry himself, according to a statement he made quoted in the Washington Post at the time of the Democratic convention, and so we have no one to blame but the man at the top of our ticket.
Can it be turned around? Frankly, I doubt it. Democrats still haven't caught up to what the Republicans did to us in 1988. Clinton was the only Democrat in my memory who would launch a counterattack to any ad against him within 3 days. If it can be turned around, we need to play as dirty as they play. Imagine an ad that says: "At the age of 30 (?) George Bush was arrested for Driving Under the Influence." Image: superimposed over a photo of Bush a giant "DUI" stamp with unimpeachable sources for this, such as the NY Times. Would this be fair or relevant, not particularly. Have the Republican attack ads been fair or relevant, not particularly.
Posted by: Ben | September 4, 2004 05:12 PM
Whatever.
and so the body of evidence of a Bush surge grows ever larger.
When will they realize that Americans do not want socialism!
Would someone have a midi of Howard Dean's Primal Scream?
I'm one of those that believe that the country is on the wrong track, That is EXACTLY why I am FOR Bush. He's on the right track. That "wrong Track" question is so misleading because it implies that all responsibility falls on the Pres.
Hoping this is true.
Yes, they dismissed the Time poll as an outlier, and then the almost identical Newsweak results came out. It was too obvious that both polls couldn't be outliers and there definitely has been a major Bush bounce. They are dreading the Gallup results still to come...
"I hope they are truly and deeply depressed. The more desperate they become, the more insane things they will say and do."
Absolutely! And I, for one, am very much looking
forward to witnessing a total, and complete, breakdown
of the 'Rats.
Good to see you. ;o)
Tradesport at 60.3 Bush.
the Bush campaign and its allies have launched more than $100 million dollars of effective negative attack ads against Kerry.
This dude need only look at his own self-delusions to see where his party has gone wrong.
Hey, top of the morning (well, here in the East anyway) to you, DC2K. What a pleasure!! I can tell you, when the meltdown comes, I'll be able to hear it outside my window -- I'm living in Back Bay Boston now -- when Kerry puts his head in the oven on Nov. 3, I'll know when he turns on the gas!!
No, that means working for Bush. I think you mean "keep fighting the stupid fight."
Ignoring the comment about the NY, I demand the Kerry campaign run this ad. If not them, call Moveon.org. I want this ad on the market.
That's interesting. I just noticed that one of 'our' number crunching EV sites - The Blogging Caesar - has exactly the same EV numbers as the Dem site: Bush 284-254 (49.2% - 48.9%). The Dem site actually has higher popular vote totals for the President (50%).
Maybe all roads do lead to Rome. I would really love to have the November 2 result be Bush 284 or higher with a 49-50% popular vote.
Do I hear the strains of "Nearer My God to Thee" emanating from the Dem websites? *glub *glub *glub
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