Gallup: Bush’s Drive for Re-Election

Gallup News Service ^ | September 3, 2004 | Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll

[RWR8189]

How his prospects look in historical perspective

PRINCETON, NJ -- Two significant milestones in this year's campaign are being reached within days of each other -- the end of the Republican convention and Labor Day, the unofficial start of the fall campaign period. Both provide important reads on President George W. Bush's election prospects. Post-convention polling will measure whether a "bounce" in voter support creates some distance between Bush and his challenger, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry. Bush's standing versus Kerry on Labor Day could also define his re-election prospects, as historical Gallup polling shows that a candidate ahead by more than five points at this point usually wins. 

While Gallup cannot answer questions about what the ballot will look like on Labor Day until new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll results are released after the holiday, Gallup's historical polling record provides context for what the post-convention results might mean for Bush's re-election prospects.

The Bounce

An analysis of past polling in election years documents that a party's ticket typically enjoys a "bounce" in the horse race polls after its convention. The fact that these convention bounces occur has become an expected part of the political drama of presidential campaigns. Journalists and pundits discuss the bounces at great length.

However, Kerry did not receive a bounce following his party's convention in Boston earlier this summer. Attention now focuses on whether Bush will get a bounce of his own, and if so, how large it will be.

[RWR8189]

Post-Convention Increases in Support, 1964-2004
Election	Candidate (incumbent in boldface)	Bounce (among registered voters)	Convention Order
2004	John Kerry	-1 point -2 points (likely voters)	1st
2000	George W. Bush	8 points 4 points (likely voters)	1st
2000	Al Gore	8 points 8 points (likely voters)	2nd
1996	Bill Clinton	5 points	2nd
1996	Bob Dole	3 points	1st
1992	Bill Clinton	16 points	1st
1992	George Bush	5 points	2nd
1988	George Bush	6 points	2nd
1988	Michael Dukakis	7 points	1st
1984	Ronald Reagan	4 points	2nd
1984	Walter Mondale	9 points	1st
1980	Ronald Reagan	8 points	1st
1980	Jimmy Carter	10 points	2nd
1976	Jimmy Carter	9 points	1st
1976	Gerald Ford	5 points	2nd
1972	Richard Nixon	7 points	2nd
1972	George McGovern	0 points	1st
1968	Richard Nixon	5 points	1st
1968	Hubert Humphrey	2 points	2nd
1964	Lyndon Johnson	3 points	2nd
1964	Barry Goldwater	5 points	1st

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[RWR8189]

An interesting read.

[Former Military Chick]

I agree. If you have not seen it there are polls at this link to let your voice be heard.

Bush makes case / rate Bush, other polls

[Restorer]

Kerry did not receive a bounce following his party's convention

I guess it is technically accurate to say that going down is the same thing as not going up...

[Kirkwood]

Interesting. Kerry is the only one with negative numbers. Next closest is McGovern with zero. Hmmm...

[RockinRight]

Overall, things look good for W.

[comebacknewt]

W is in great shape heading into the final 60 days. I wouldn't say he has it wrapped up, but he is now a clear front-runner.

If he is up 5 or more points in Mid-September, it will be extremely difficult for F'n to make up the difference.

[RockinRight]

Overall, things look good for W.

[concerned about politics]

Rasmussen had him up by 5 YESTERDAY, before his speech.

[RockinRight]

W will win by 6-10 points in November, IMHO. I have amended my prediction:

Bush 344 EV's
Kerry 194 EV's

Bush 54.0%
Kerry 44.3%

[Mike Darancette]

Quite a distinction for Mr. Kerry, only negative bounce.

[NYCVirago]

-1 point -2 points (likely voters)

Aha! So there it is -- Kerry got a negative bounce from his convention!