Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[patriciaruth]

I cannot forget the devastation that occurred in Honduras/Nicaragua when a hurricane stalled there several years ago.

[patriciaruth]

And then there was Andrew.

[patriciaruth]

Prayers for your aunt.

My aunt is 86 and lives in the Miami area. My brother was in Miami yesterday, but she refused to go to a safer area, because of her 7 cats.

I hope no one minds much if I pray this thing hits farther north.

[7.62 x 51mm]

Awesome sign-up date, P@B. Kudos.

[patriciaruth]

Well, for God's sake at least tell the idiot to take mattresses into the bathroom and for his family to get under them.

[Strategerist]

Frances in big trouble right now....100 mph surface winds is the highest recorded....954 is lowest pressure...the shear is doing a number on her. Wow..I can't believe NHC did not see the shear being this bad.

Basically can't see it till it happens. Both precise shear direction and speed, and the effect it will have on a particular storm, are basically almost completely unpredictable.

[dan_s]

[longtermmemmory]

Andrew was a baby compared to this.

[bd476]

Frances Still Strong Cat. 3 Hurricane 5AM Update from NOAA

[longfellow]

Two words, Holy SHiitemuslim!

[MonroeDNA]

early morning bump!

[Ol' Sox]

This beast seems to be taking aim right at my Mom. When I talked to her on Monday and told her to get out of Dodge, she arranged to move from her "manufactured" home in Fort Pierce to a friend's more substantial condo in Vero Beach. I did a mapquest on the address and she had managed to get her self within 200 yards of the beach!!

I called her back and said that it wouldn't do at all, and that I had been thinking more like Clearwater, and she copped an attitude. Wasn't going to budge. Finally, yesterday, the reality sunk in. She has now conceded to staying with another friend in an older, stronger home two miles inland, still in Vero Beach. At least this one has had the windows boarded - the beach condo couldn't be boarded at all!

sheesh - Trying to manage a 75 year old stubborn mom from here in CT is...well...lets just say that the Maalox bottle is now half empty.

[ml/nj]

Isn't he on the coast near West Palm Beach?

This is certainly a unique way of describing Palm Beach!

ML/NJ

[AniGrrl]

Think she might continue to weaken from here on out?

[Swanks]

Joe Bistardi not ruling out a slight shift north even into GA, between St. Simon island and the SC coast. It's an out-lier call (but he is Joe Bistardi)

[numberonepal]

Thanks for the Mobile bump. My hometown or New Orleans Light - Home Of The Original Mardi Gras. We do have a little experience with storms. Being dead center of the Gulf's Hurricane Alley has made Mobilians learn to ALWAYS pay attention to these storms.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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[Patton@Bastogne]

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[Moose4]

For what it's worth, 1100Z METAR from the airport at Nassau, Bahamas:

MYNN 031100Z 36040G65KT 9999 -RA BKN010 BKN070 27/20 Q994 3D 430 SAPO32 LPMG 031100

Winds from 360 at 40 knots gusting 65 knots, light rain, ceiling 1000 broken 7000 broken, pressure 994 mb. Yoiks!

}:-)4

[SE Mom]

I was just reading up on the history of Andrew- it weakened considerably as it passed over the Bahamas...as it hit the Gulf Stream again it regenerated from a 2-3 to a full-bore 4. Reading the latest from the hurricane center- the consensus indicates Frances will do the same. I hope NOT- I'm in southwest Seminole County...just as soon have this one pass us by.