it's sitting out there taunting everyone. But, it's sitting smack dab ahead of some island, what is that...
Posted on 09/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
Is that water in the large blue plastic thing?
Ahhh not too twisted. Just enough. I love being able to see the world from more than one angle, don't you?
This is cool. We listen here on EchoLink (ham radio) WX4NHC has a weather nets there, and we tune in when the action gets really busy.
Yes, until the angels overwhelm me.
I'm not sure what I'm looking at. The big one in the last frame? (it's HUGE!)
Bingo..but 16 days soon to be 15 is a long way out in hurricane life...but this same model brought Frances to where it is currently...
Yeah no question about it. Mark my words..Ivan is going fishing in the mid-atlantic in about 2-3 days. Jeanne is going to be the one we are going to look at.
Checking in from Orlando. I've been running around for the past two days and feel that I'm reasonably prepared for the storm. It is almost a relief now to just hunker down and wait for the thing. I'm not planning on leaving the house for the next two days. I'm so exhausted that I don't think I'd have the energy to do so anyway. And to think that I was supposed to be leaving for a great vacation today. Your priorities sure do change when faced with something like this twice in a month!
I sure am dreading when the power goes out and I no longer have internet access. I was in the middle of a post here on Free Republic - about to hit the send button when our power went out with Charlie. I was without power for seven days then and without cable or internet access for two weeks.
It has been a beautiful day here in Orlando. Tonight was one of the most beautiful evenings we've had all year, with no humidity and the most beautiful breeze. Definately the calm before the storm.
Stay safe fellow Floridians.
Her course was 301 degrees True, from that position on south Eleuthera up to the 5 PM position off Great Harbor.
Don't think she has moved much since, but I'll replot at the 11 PM update.
I remember riding out Gloria in the mid-80's. It was a frightful night, but the next day was gorgeous. It was as if the storm took all traces of sadness away when it left. Please keep us informed how you're doing, for as long as you can. Good luck!
OK, I found what appears to be the 11 pm position on Weather Underground.
If I am figuring this right, and it seems unbelievable to me, the storm moved or wobbled roughly to the NW, but only about 7 nautical miles since 5 pm!
it's sitting out there taunting everyone. But, it's sitting smack dab ahead of some island, what is that...
Grand Bahama. They're not having so nice a night.
000 WTNT41 KNHC 040259 TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 RADAR...SATELLITE...RECON DATA...AND NUMEROUS SURFACE REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS...SURFACE STATIONS...AND SHIPS IN AND AROUND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE 18Z ADVISORY. HOWEVER ...THE SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE EYE HAS NOT CHANGED FROM 959-960 MB SINCE ABOUT 22Z. BRIEF BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH HAVE BEEN HELPING TO MAINTAIN A 90-KT INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 295/05. DROPSONDE DATA AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WRAPAROUND MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES HAS NOT MOVED...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND RIDGES EXTENDING EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS HAS TRAPPED FRANCES IN A WEAK STEERING REGIME...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO ERODE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.
IT IS INTERESTING TO POINT OUT THAT THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS THAT PREVIOUSLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE ARE NOW THE LEFTMOST MODELS...AND TAKE FRANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.
SOME WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 300-250 MB HAVE BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER. THIS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PATTERN...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...HAS LIKELY LED TO THE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS-ETA-GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR PATTERN TO WEAKEN OR DISAPPEAR IN 18-24 HOURS...AT ABOUT THE TIME FRANCES IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE WARMER GULFSTREAM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ALREADY EXPANDED AND LARGE INNER CORE WIND FIELD...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST.
BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 26.1N 77.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 78.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 27.6N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0000Z 28.7N 83.1W 35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
72HR VT 07/0000Z 31.9N 86.2W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0000Z 40.0N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND
That's a wide path for Frances - definitely doesn't look weak enough yet for anyone to let down their guard.
True. I think it is probably even worse for the fishing village of Sandy Point, on the southwest point of Great Abaco. Great Harbour is taking it on the chin, too.
Why does that guy have his head in a trash can, though?
The new track moves it's landfall slightly south and it just brushes or barely crosses Lake O. Landfall is now predicted to be 8 p.m. Saturday. But the weather folks also show it losing strength and becoming a tropical storm before it gets too far inland. But those folks are going to have many hours of high wind before it's done.
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