Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[Sam Cree]

[Dog Gone]

Good luck this weekend.

[Uncle Fud]

bearing from there is 086 degrees

Well, that's better than 096 :-}

last four positions:

24.9,76.0

25.3,76.4

25.5,76.7

25.7,77.2

[IYAAYAS]

Reporting in from Ft Lauderdale.

It's here, well the edge anyway. There's a constant stiff wind with gusts to 50mph, I'd guess. I just came back from a ride to look around, there are a lot of tree limbs down with leaves and palm fronds littering the streets. The gusts are bending the palm trees pretty good.

[Sam Cree]

Thanks.

Every hour she tracks NW makes me relax a little more, but I am still concerned. I don't wish it on central FL or anyone else, for sure, though, but I'll be happy all the same if we can avoid her here further south.

Going through one of these monsters was enough for a lifetime.

[lainie]

later computer models suggesting a shift to the south from previous projections? (The yellow & orange are based on later data?)

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Stay safe!

[OXENinFLA]

Jacksonville.


Went to the bank the get some ca$h around 1:30(got out of work early) and the bank had to give me $500 in $10's.

Teller told me she's got banker friends around Daytona and said the banks ran out of ca$h there.

[PJ-Comix]

That radar map concurs with my visual observations. About 40 minutes ago I saw a solid dark wall of rainclouds as the leading edge of Francis rolled in here in Ft. Lauderdale. It was an AWESOME sight. Right now it is raining moderately heavy with winds of about 25 MPH and gusts of about 40 MPH. Interestingly I just called a friend in Miami and she told me it was still fairly calm and sunny down there. I think the eye of Frances is about due East of Ft. Lauderdale right now but since it is still way out at sea, should pass us by on its NW route.

[Dog Gone]

Don't let any coconuts bean ya in the noggin!

[bd476]

Great job boarding up, Killjoy. I pray that your efforts serve as an example to all who would otherwise not be taking such precautions.

While we're safe and dry in California, our local weatherman showed satellite images of the hurricane at least 5 times during the noon news. Frances is larger than the State of Florida and will at least bring tons of rain.

Just heard live IRLP ham radio reports from a man just now "considering" leaving Coconut Grove with wife and their 10 week old infant because of (potential?) power loss which would impact keeping their baby's formula chilled.

[Uncle Fud]

We're just 1/2 mile north of MIA. Steady winds of what I would guess are 25-30 mph w/occasional spurts of rain. Wind has shifted NW - N - NE since late morning which is always a little good news.

[Uncle Fud]

I take it you went through Andrew. We were 20 miles north in Miami Springs, had what amounted to a Cat 2 storm, that was still lpenty for me!

[Fierce Allegiance]

Only if it goes to the left at the bottom of the hour.

Stay safe everybody!!

[Uncle Fud]

10 week old infant because of (potential?) power loss which would impact keeping their baby's formula chilled.

Do you think they know Mother Nature does have a backup system to deal with that?

[bd476]

Live IRLP net control with live weather reports (some with unknown locale) reports:

Report: "Estimated winds 60 mph no estimation on gusts 988.4 mb and falling; Windy and continuing to rain; repeat winds sustained at 60 mph..."

Another report: "At 1955 Zulu 70 mph gusts 80-90 985.2 mb and falling; winds picking up..."

Another report: "Located 1500 ft. from Ft. Lauderdale beach; winds calm, feeder band just went through; 25 mph winds sustained; 29.73 inches barometric pressure; staying and riding it out for time being."

[killjoy]

Here is a current picture of my living room. All the worldly possessions from two families (not including mine). The two guys in the second pictures are the two MUSLIMS who I mentioned in a previous post. I will try to keep some pictures going as long as I keep power.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't see it....but, it is not getting much weaker....whatever happens, it will be strong probably.

[lainie]

Hurricane Howard is going out to sea & losing strength.. kicking up some good surf action at Cabo San Lucas but that's about it.

[NautiNurse]

Yowser--if anyone thinks it won't be too bad on the east FL coast...FL EOC says to expect hurricane force winds for 12 hours with 10-15" driving rain, going through two high tide cycles.