Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[My Favorite Headache]

I am in Melbourne..and think it is truly going to stall right on our coast and drift inland from southern brevard/north vero beach for 2 days...that scenario is VERY REAL...and VERY POSSIBLE.

[dennis1x]

thankfully she has weakened substantially in the last 24 hours..down to a cat 3 now.

[dennis1x]

and there really is no reason to believe a 2 day stall would happen...all models and forecasts have a 5-10mph steady movement over the weekend.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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My Favorite Headache


I am in Melbourne..and think it is truly going to stall right on our coast and drift inland from southern brevard/north vero beach for 2 days...that scenario is VERY REAL...and VERY POSSIBLE.


That's why I evacuated my ex-wife and four teenaged kids outta there Tuesday night at 11 PM, avoiding the heavy traffic, hot weather, all the fun stuff.

BTW. I hear there are practically no hotel rooms left over here in Clearwater.

What part of Melbourne do you live in ? I'm figuring that everything along the Indian River gets blasted ...




Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



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[KingPin]

Folks here in Louisiana are keeping one eye on this monster. Prayers and thoughts to all the folks in Florida.

[rwfromkansas]

will be interesting to see what it does in the future

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

Seems like all Florida hurricanes that start with the letter F (like Floyd) fake us out.

Looks like Frances will wimp out also.

[blam]

"Folks here in Louisiana are keeping one eye on this monster. Prayers and thoughts to all the folks in Florida."

Same here in Mobile.

[janetgreen]

Are you anywhere near Port St. Lucie? I have an elderly aunt there and I can't contact her.

[samantha]

Well it better pull a right turn soon and leave us alone. I am due west of Vero in Eastern Highlands co. I am not a happy camper after the crap we got from Charley.

[My Favorite Headache]

Right around Palm Bay...

[libbylu]

the winds are less because it has been beating up the bahamas...winds will increase again when it gets over water. i wish we'd be lucky enough for it to wimp, but i don't think so tim.
DH is on the florida turnpike..... they were going 15 mph when he called.

[My Favorite Headache]

The shear has been going on for 7 hours now..it will last another 12 maybe. The warm water will continue to replace the center that gets eaten by the light shear...and it is VERY LIGHT. The reason the models didn't see this happening is because light shear is not seen usually unless affecting a storm.

Local media and Max Mayfield said a "drift to 2-3 mph" inland Saturday night in North Vero Beach...but the 100 miles south of it is in play until tomorrow when the track will be tightened even more.

[Strategerist]

Decline in winds has nothing to do with the Bahamas; it's a bit of dry air, plus the outflow being cut in one quadrant at the 300mb level.

[My Favorite Headache]

I am about an hr away from Pt.St.Lucie...in Palm Bay area.

[Strategerist]

and there really is no reason to believe a 2 day stall would happen...all models and forecasts have a 5-10mph steady movement over the weekend.

Not correct; a variety of models show a long stall; the ECMWF has the storm right on the coast not moving for 24 hours over Melbourne, FL, for example.

Possibility of 20+ inches of rain for parts of Florida.

[Keith in Iowa]

Tune in to FoxNews - Jerry Rivers is on Hurricane Watch - Gretta says he's going to chase the eye!!

Will Jerry buy the farm due to flying debris?

[joonbug]

Where does Rush live? Isn't he on the coast near West Palm Beach?

[FreeInWV]

FWIW I just talked to my grandfather in West Melbourne. He said the winds are going to cause it to hook to the left and go SW of Melbourne. Landfall at Vero? He has no fancy computer model, but has lived in W. Melbourne since it was a dairyfarm.

He mentioned that the evac routes were jammed, and Lowes was a madhouse. He plans on closing his shutters and watching TV.