Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)

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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):

ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.

GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.

GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!

EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.

UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.

NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.

The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.

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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/

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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.

General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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Part IV – Items of General Interest

The Service will not assert the penalty under § 6715 of the Internal Revenue
Code for diesel fuel that has been delivered by wholesale dealers to retail
dealers for resale to highway users or has been sold by wholesale dealers
directly to end users for highway use for the period September 2, 2004, through
September 7, 2004.

Announcement 2004-70

The Internal Revenue Service will not assert the penalty under section 6715 of
the Internal Revenue Code with respect to dyed diesel fuel that, due to shortages
of clear diesel fuel in the State of Florida caused by Hurricanes Charley and
Frances, has been delivered by wholesale dealers to retail dealers for resale to
highway users or has been sold by wholesale dealers directly to end users for
highway use. This relief from the section 6715 penalty will apply only to dyed
diesel fuel that wholesale dealers deliver or sell in the State of Florida and only to
fuel delivered or sold by wholesale dealers during the period September 2, 2004,
through September 7, 2004. In the case of wholesale dealers, penalty relief will
be available only if the wholesale dealer reports and pays the tax on the dyed
diesel fuel that is delivered or sold for highway use. The return and
payment will be due on October 31, 2004, and the IRS will not assert penalties
for failure to make semimonthly deposits of the tax. Wholesale dealers should
call 1-866-699-4096 (a toll free number) for instructions on the proper method for
reporting and paying this tax.
In general, diesel fuel may be removed tax free from a terminal if it is dyed
in the manner specified in the regulations under section 4082 of the Internal
Revenue Code. Section 4081(b) of the Internal Revenue Code imposes a tax on
blended diesel fuel created by mixing dyed diesel fuel with clear diesel fuel that
has been previously taxed. Under regulations, the seller of the dyed fuel in the
mixture is liable for this tax if the dyed fuel is sold as fuel that has previously
been taxed. A sale of dyed diesel fuel by a wholesaler to a retailer will be treated
as meeting this condition if the wholesaler delivers the dyed fuel into the retailer’s
storage tank for clear diesel fuel and the fuel qualifies for relief from the section
6715 penalty. Section 4041(a) of the Internal Revenue Code imposes a tax on
sales of dyed diesel fuel that has not been previously taxed to persons that will
use the fuel in a taxable highway use. Section 6715 of the Internal Revenue
Code imposes a penalty if dyed diesel fuel is sold for highway use or is knowingly
used on the highway.
Recent and imminent hurricanes in Florida have resulted in critical
shortages of clear, low-sulfur diesel fuel in that State. The Internal Revenue
Service and the Environmental Protection Agency are concerned that these
shortages could impair the ability of emergency vehicles and utility repair
vehicles to respond to existing damage
from Hurricane Charley and expected damage from Hurricane Frances.
Although limited quantities of dyed, high-sulfur diesel fuel are also available in
Florida, Clean Air Act restrictions and the section 6715 penalty restrict this fuel to
nontaxable off-highway uses. The relief announced today by the Internal
Revenue Service and the Environmental Protection Agency’s exercise of its
enforcement discretion under the Clear Air Act restrictions will make all diesel
fuel in the State of Florida available for highway use.
The principal author of this announcement is Barbara Franklin of the
Office of Associate Chief Counsel (Passthroughs & Special Industries). For
further information regarding this announcement contact Ms. Franklin at (202)
622-3130 (not a toll-free call).

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004

...Outer squalls of dangerous Hurricane Frances moving over the
Florida East Coast...weather should begin to deteriorate
gradually...

 
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. A Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are now in effect from north of
Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas
has been discontinued.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 77.5 west or about 90 miles...
145 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and 200
miles east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.

 
Frances has been wobbeling but in general is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr.  A west-northwest to
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of
Hurricane Frances will continue to move near or over the
northwestern Bahamas today and will be near the Florida coast on
Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next
24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

 
Minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter plane was 
959 mb...28.32 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet abover normal tide
levels...along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be
expected on the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 6 feet above normal lake water
level is expected in Lake Okeechobee.

Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.

 
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

 
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...25.9 N... 77.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...115
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

 
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 40
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004

 
data from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Frances
has changed little in organization during the past few hours and
remains a dangerous hurricane. The initial intensity is kept at 100
knots but...based on recent observations from the stepped-frequency
microwave radiometer...sfmr...instrument on board a NOAA
aircraft...the wind field appears to be expanding a little bit.
This necessitates extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward
along the Florida East Coast.  The hurricane has about 24 hours to
strengthen...if at all...while moving over water.  Although none of
the guidance show significant stregthening...there is a small
opportunity for Frances to re-intensify somewhat as it passes over
the Gulf Stream and approaches the Florida coast.

 
As anticipated...the hurricane is moving right on track with the
usual wobbles. The initial motion is 300 degrees or west-northwest
at about 7 knots and a track between the west-northwest and
northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 2 to 3 days. Because neither the steering nor the
track guidance have changed..there is no point to discuss it again.
The bottom line is that Frances...a powerful hurricane...is
forecast to move very slowly across Florida. However...the timing
and location of landfall can not be specified exactly.

 
Because Frances is a slow moving hurricane...it could bring
torrential rains to portions of Florida.

 
Forecaster Avila

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