Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[Uncle Fud]

Well, if she starts the turn right now, she'd make landfall around WPB which would probably keep us on a warning all night.

Has a storm ever gotten into the gulf stream and gone south??

[Sam Cree]

Looks like she is in or near the Northwest Providence Channel. I'm not sure what the SST's are like in there but the channel is connected to the Gulf Stream, and about as wide. Cruise ships take when bound to the Carribbean.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

It looks like it might be starting to regenerate - you can see the eye clearly again.

A cool link...(if you haven't already found it)...there is a definite eye in the last frame in this loop as of 1:56cst.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

[elfman2]

"You would probably find yourself stuck in Florida City. I assume they have the bridges open to one way traffic only (i.e. all lanes going north)."

I’m pretty sure that’s no the case. There are no substantial evacuations from the Keys, certainly none suggested, not even mobile homes on the ocean here. Both North and Southbound lanes are open.

Also, there are no bridges in Florida City.

Got to go, off to take my pregnant wife and 22mo old to the beach in Islamorada Founders Park. It’s a beautiful day here.

[Dog Gone]

It looks like it might be starting to regenerate - you can see the eye clearly again.

A local Florida weatherman, Tom Terry, said on the air a little while ago that he now anticipates that the storm will reorganize and come ashore as a Cat 4.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Forecaster Avila has been doing a great job with all these alerts.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

The big old tree in front of my parents' home in Lake Wales that fell on the neighbors' home was an oak. And yes, it came right up at the roots. Typical of the FLA sandy soil. This would not happen in places like IL where they typically snap off, since the roots can go so deep.

[Palladin]

Good luck to you and all Floridians.

We'll all be praying for you tonight.

Good thoughts going out to all FReepers in Frances' path.

[Moose4]

1800Z guesstimate from Intellicast. They're still saying 115 mph at landfall. Notice that the 48-72 hour track has shifted sharply east from yesterday...they're showing the storm not re-emerging over the Gulf, instead staying over Florida up through the central part of the state, then up into Georgia via Valdosta and Columbus.

}:-)4

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

??? 10 inches of rain, saturated ground weakening root system, wind in same direction of lean = acme roof opener.

After this is all through, we'll have to send out the Acme Street Cleaners!

[Severa]

Oh this is just peachy. Not only do I worry about my relatives in FL (including Mom, who was originally just visiting her sis) I've got the remnants of this bitch heading toward the REST of my family?

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Bump ,for my ex and son riding it out in Melbourne

They should have gone inland........ Prayers for these people. They'll need 'em.

[Sam Cree]

Yep, I just plotted her on my computerized nautical chart, she is in the Northwest Providence channel, center 40 miles north of Great Harbor, Berry Islands (poor folks) in about 3000 feet of blue water.

[easonc52]

Just want to say to all on the east coast

[Severa]

Still watching this big bitch like a hawk.

I don't believe it...

The current track is taking the remnants of this thing right up to my home state of KY...

FL, which is home to most of my mom's family, is right in its sights.

Anyone got an extra Maalox bottle? Or some Alka Seltzer? Please?

[Uncle Fud]

Can you plot her course over the last 2-3 observations? My guess is 305-310.

[Dog Gone]

With the unexpected slowing of the forward movement of Frances, it's not surprising that the long term trajectory has shifted.

I don't think anyone, including the experts at the NHC, is very good at accurately predicting the intensity of a storm much more than a few hours in advance. Look how the weakening of Frances caught them off guard.

At this point, I think Florida residents should treat the storm as being capable of reaching Cat 4 at landfall. But perhaps she'll be much weaker than that.

[Dog Gone]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-031930-
BISCAYNE BAY-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-MIAMI-
DADE METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
239 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...SPIRAL BAND RAPIDLY APPROACHING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE
60 MPH...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 50 MPH. THIS BAND WILL AFFECT
THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTH ACROSS METRO
BROWARD TO METRO MIAMI-DADE. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FROM 3 TO 5 PM EDT.

PERSONS SHOULD AVOID BEING OUTDOORS AND SHOULD SECURE ANY REMAINING LOOSE
OBJECTS. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED WHEN TREE LIMBS ARE BLOWN
DOWN.

[Sam Cree]

Yes, if I can get the last couple of positions, I can enter them pretty easily.

If not, I'll plot the new one at 17:00 and see what she did for 3 hours.

BTW, her 14:00 position is 145 nautical miles roughly east of downtonwn Miami, bearing from there is 086 degrees.

Software is cool.

[Sam Cree]

Thanks.

Gonna call my wife and tell her to come home.