Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[BurbankKarl]

if the hurricane stops and reverses course 180 degrees, will it be called a Crazy Ivan?

[Uncle Fud]

I'm hoping they pull the hurricane warnings up to Biscayne Bay at 2 PM. (but I'm doubtful)

[maineman]

?

[BurbankKarl]

oh, from Hunt for Red October....its a Soviet sub move to detect submarines which may be following them....

[shield]

Anyone know anything about the hurricane in the pacific? Someone is asking me where's it going?

[Uncle Fud]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ scroll down to "Eastern Pacific" - "Hurricane Howard" and hit the links

aimed at southern Calif but expected to dissolve before he gets there.

[Mr. Jeeves]

aimed at southern Calif but expected to dissolve before he gets there.

They always do. The ocean off SoCal is way too cold to support hurricanes, though some thunderstorms and rain may get as far as San Diego County.

[shield]

Thank you!

[MedNole]

You're in Melbourne??
I'm in Indialantic, about a quarter mile from the beach.

[Slicksadick]

It will make for some KILLER south swells in 3-4 days

[Sam Cree]

Well, they didn't pull the warning for south FL and Miami yet, probably because the thing has slowed down so much.

Paradoxically, we are just about out of the "cone of uncertainty, while Jacksonville is now in it, yet they have no warning while we do. 'Course she is quite close to us by comparison, and I suppose we could get hurricane force winds even if she goes ashore in Brevard. Then there is that expected leftward turn. I see now that they have indeed raised a watch (but not a warning) for Jax.

[elfman2]

Attn: Florida Evacuies - Drive South

I presume the roads are still a mess going North and West, and accommodations and gas are rare. So instead of driving 15 hours north at 20 mph with a hurricane on your butt, just drive 5 hours south at 65 mph down to the Florida Keys.

Tens of thousands of rooms left open from vacated tourists, conch fritters and margaritas :^)

[killjoy]

So instead of driving 15 hours north at 20 mph with a hurricane on your butt, just drive 5 hours south at 65 mph down to the Florida Keys.

You would probably find yourself stuck in Florida City. I assume they have the bridges open to one way traffic only (i.e. all lanes going north).

[Sam's Army]

Just saw the latest track and it looks to have a more western turn to it. Why is no one on the Weather channel talking about the high pressure system that was in play over the past 2-3 days anymore?

Also, what's any update on traffic and gas availability for Tampa to Lake City on I-75?

[Howlin]

will it be called a Crazy Ivan?

LOL....I love that movie!!!!

[shield]

Thanks. Got friends in California asking me questions, I'll pass this on to them.

[dirtboy]

The storm looks like it is reorganizing in the last couple of sat photos - the eye is coming back into view and the central dense overcast is thickening.

[dirtboy]

It looks like it might be starting to regenerate - you can see the eye clearly again.

[Tribune7]

ping

[Old Professer]

Why would the sheepdog bark when the field has been cleared?