Posted on 09/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)
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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):
ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.
GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.
GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!
EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.
UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.
NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.
The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.
Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.
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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Hurricane Basics
NOAA Hurricane FAQs
Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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A similiar discussion took place 48 and 24 hours ago. But bottom line, of most of the models, still shows a Vero beach landing. Joe Bistardi did say this am he wasn't running out St. Simon Island, GA.
I'm heading to Sunset Beach, NC tommorow. I've moved from stand-by to go (pending last minute check 15 hours or so)
"Windows Media Player hasn't a clue what to do with that link. *sigh* Can't install WinAmp on a work machine..."
Try to reduce your security settings if at all possible. Do a Google Search for WinAmp. My workplace also refuses downloads to the point we can't even view -our own webpage- because we can't download the latest "Flash" player!
Sweet!
Looks like your IT guy is either untrained or has no authority to -actually- manage the network. Empty suit calling all the shots?
Personally, Frances crossed my latitude at the 11 AM advisory. That's when I start to breathe my first small sigh of relief.
Hope that many more get that feeling today. She is moving much closer to NW than W since the 11 PM Thursday position.
We could sure use some of that rain up here in Penna; after the rainiest sping and summer in 15 years, it's bone dry.
I guess that brings it in around Vero Beach. Only 60 miles north of here.
The good news (for me anyway) is that my exposure is east and south. Hopefully I can handle the north and westerly winds.
Local news now showing it's a matter of minutes for feeder bands here in Palm Beach County.
north miami beach - wind starting to gust, some rain. computer still on!
1975-1992 being the questionable zone, at least in Dade County.
We live in a concrete box built in 1949.
"Windows Media Player hasn't a clue what to do with that link. *sigh* Can't install WinAmp on a work machine..."
Try the WIOD 610AM Wall to Wall Hurricane Coverage via this MS Media link,
http://www.newsradio610.com/streaming.html
Be warned that this is a Clear Channel station, which means you will suffer through more than 30 minutes of commercials every hour! Almost funny how a Natural Disaster is approaching but their main focus is selling herbal supplements, time and station ID's, etc., etc.!
Mine was built in 1954. It is a large part of the reason we decided to stay.
I'm in one of the hundreds of concrete (block walls, slab ceilings and roofs) of townhouses that Burg and Divosta built down here in the early/mid 80's. There wasn't a single piece of wood used in the construction (even the studs are metal).
All four of my sliding doors (I have no real windows) are boarded up pretty good.
My main worry was it coming in south and me getting the bad easterly winds. Even though I'm less than 1000 yards from the ocean, there is a huge bluff that will protect me from surge. I guess I could get "back door-ed" from the Intracoastal, but I just don't see it.
Many houses built in the 70's-80's you could have handled that with a screwdriver. I'd be terrified living in one of those places with anything more than a cat 2 coming my way.
At 11 a.m. EDT, a hurricane watch was issued from north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. Also, the hurricane watch for the middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay, has been discontinued.I don't think they'd have discontinued the watch for the Keys unless it was pretty clear that the thing is edging to the north.
Haven't read thru all of the thread(s), but this dawned on me about an hour ago between boarding windows again, and I was trying to get complacent...
Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion of the Great Bahama Bank and the pressure rose to 941 mb. However, the hurricane rapidly reintensified during the last few hours preceding landfall when it moved over the Straits of Florida. During that period, radar, aircraft and satellite data showed a decreasing eye diameter and strengthening "eyewall" convection.
and we know the rest of that story...
Nice to know the info about the Keys..got some friends down there :) Blue skies once again here but the wind is picking up. I'm at the bay and on an ocean access waterway. The tuna towers and high mast sailboats are lined up out back. Some IDIOT yesterday afternoon double parked his 20' outboard, tying up to a larger boat. Marine patrol towed it out of there. (I think I saw a Kerry/Edwards sticker on the bow! hehe)
Check out the visibile satellite loop. It looks to me as if the eye is beginning to clean out and there's a western movement to the storm????
This is a serious one stop shopping site for everything Frances:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
Just saw the same thing. Western side of the eye is building up--the warmer waters of the FL Straits perhaps?
Geez, if you're going to take pictures of your house, you should at least paint windows and curtains on the plywood and cut your lawn!!
LOL! Maybe later. Would be pretty funny.
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