Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






=========================================



First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



=========================================



EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




=========================================



















Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



.

[Right_Handed_Writer]

Generally the gulf stream can serve to strengthen a hurricane. The gulf stream does not "turn" a hurricane. The waters there are a few degrees warmer than the nearby ocean temps. And if Frances slows as predicted, she can take a long drink. But the problem with that, just like us, a long drink means that water has got to come out somewhere. I haven't seen much discussion on the rainfall threat from this system. And the slower she moves the more rain she will dump.

If anyone thinks the threat is diminished because the winds are decreasing consider this:

12" of rain is not only possible but probable at this speed.

1 cubic foot of water is 7.5 gallons.

I'll be conservative and go with a storm path of 140 miles wide that will contain the heaviest rain. Florida is roughly 120 miles wide. That's an area about 16,800 square miles. Converting to square feet, each with a cubic foot of water on it yields 3.5 TRILLION gallons of water.

Be prepared for flooding like you can't imagine.

And here is an offbeat link that shows sea surface temps, as long as there aren't clouds:

http://www.sstcharts.com/

[OXENinFLA]

UPDATE #39

CRAP it looks like she's turning north!!

[rwfromkansas]

I am rather shocked it has not strengthened.....the shear is definitely impacting it pretty good.

May not strengthen until it drops to a Cat 2 even.......who knows I guess.

At least it hopefully won't hit as a 5. It still has lots of time to get stronger though unfortunately.

[Howlin]

Well, much as I hate to admit it, yes.......LOL......and all with bright BIG teeth!

But they were Zetas.

[FlJoePa]

I just got back from the Juno Beach Pier. I guess we will start seeing feeder bands within a couple of hours. Lots of activity, though no one is being allowed in the water (lots of ticked off surfers).

Cops and tv crews everywhere. Someone told me that Al Roker was up there this morning.

I took some pictures - nothing real special, but you can see the surf is definitely up.

For anyone interested, I hosted them and will link them below:

beach1
beach2
beach3
beach4
beach5
beach6
beach7
beach8
beach9
beach10
beach11
beach12
beach13
beach14
beach15
beach16
beach17
beach18

[JHENN22499]

Actually, I'm proud of this 4 some of youngsters. They are calling me and saying ok we did that, now what. Wow!!!! But, they are scared. I tell them, they are out of immediate danger, just high wind and rain, but none the less be alert, there is nothing written in stone on this one! May prescribe a bottle of Tequilla next call! (W/lime)

[Dog Gone]

You can leave the boards up for the next fighter now entering the ring?

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

This has been the NOAA.gov prediction all week long.

[OXENinFLA]

I hope there's a Redux (Sorry NC)..........

[killjoy]

A shot of the front of my house.

[cogitator]

Reading the latest from the hurricane center- the consensus indicates Frances will do the same.

Because it's moving slowly, it will have time to gain energy from the warm Gulf Stream surface water as it approaches Florida. Unfortunate but true.

[KC Burke]

My son-in-law grew up in Vero and until a year ago lived there. All of his friends and his parents friends still live there. It looks like Vero will finally get the one they thought would never arrive.

You better head for very high ground. My prayers are with you and yours.

[amom]

Thinking of all y'all and hoping you are safe and sound. Check in as you can.

My Favorite Headache thanks for keeping us updated.

[AppyPappy]

Thank goodness you have that tree leaning towards the house. It will protect you from some of the rain.

[FlJoePa]

After all the work I did yesterday boarding up my house, I can tell you that it would take a loaded weapon to my temple for me to take all that stuff down before I know what Ivan is doing!

[cogitator]

What effect does the Gulfstream have on hurricanes as they pass over it?

In case no one answered you yet; warm water is the fuel for the hurricane engine. The warmer the water, the faster the engine revs. The Gulf Stream is the warmest water around Florida (carries the Gulf of Mexico water through the Florida Straits and then north).

[Swanks]

Interesting chart. So for Fran to mimic Floyd it will have to abruptly turn to the north in the next 6-12 hours. I think it is going to run into real estate called FL first.

[OXENinFLA]

11AM UPDATE



WTNT41 KNHC 031446
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL
OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO
RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE
LANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.5N 76.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.3N 77.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.5N 85.9W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND

[killjoy]

Thank goodness you have that tree leaning towards the house. It will protect you from some of the rain.

That is only one part of a very large tree there. It will either work for me or against me. I is pretty solid so I am not worried about it coming down, but there is always the chance.

[janetgreen]

Actually she does live in a mobile home. I don't know the area, and I'm worried. I just know that she lives on Mariposa Avenue in Port St. Lucie. I've tried to call, but no luck. Thank you for the information.