Here's the theory: Frances approaches the Florida coast - somewhere in the West Palm-to-Melbourne area - but stays 100 miles +/- off shore. THEN IT STALLS, maybe for a DAY or more while awaiting steering currents to push Frances .... somewhere. Most likely (in this scenario), the push is northerly, with a landfall somewhere from mid-Georgia to mid-S. Carolina.
This is also a VERY bad scenario for Florida (coastal flooding; heavy rains, winds, etc.) if the coastal approach is ANY closer than 100 miles. It'll be bad enough if this option comes to pass anyway.
For right now, the NHC still is leaning away from that plan.
YIKES.
As I said earlier and have been saying - I don't want this baby to hit anyone.......some of these scenarios are just downright frightening for anyone and everyone anywhere near the east coast.
The BAMM models are doing crazy things this evening. In fact, all of the models have been fluctuating a lot during the past 12 hours. We have models that have been fairly reliable in the past putting Frances into the Gulf after crossing Florida, and we have models predicting the first strike in the Carolinas.
This seems odd to me because it was looking as if we were getting a consensus opinion on a central Florida strike earlier today.
There's a darn good reason that the NHC posts a cone along with the projected official track, and that's because they can't be sure where in that cone it will go. The skinny little line is just the centerpoint of that cone.
As long as your house is within the cone, you had better be prepared for Frances on your doorstep this weekend.