Electoral College Breakdown 2004, August 29th Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

The Vanishing Approval Gap

I got one right, now I have to go for the other. Back when John Kerry chose John Edwards to be his running mate, I wrote an article in which I predicted a 4-7 point bounce for Kerry. Now it is time for the Republican convention, and the national polls and the state polls are both showing a race that is too close to call at this point due to Kerry's bounce fading away.

In the past, there has been one measure which has been phenomenal at estimating part of the convention bounce for an incumbent President: the job approval rating. For every incumbent President since Eisenhower, the incumbent's support level (as measured by the Gallup poll) was at or below the incumbent's job approval rating heading in to the convention. For every one of these gentlemen, his support level leaving the convention was at, and usually above, that number.

For Richard Nixon, Gallup measured his job approval three times from late May through June. The results were 62%, 59%, and 57% approval. Gallup then did not poll job approval until after the election; by then it had risen back to 62%. Going into the Republican convention in late August, Nixon's support level was at 57%; the convention raised it up to 64%. Nixon won re-election with 62% of the vote.

The next incumbent to run was Gerald Ford. In 1976, President Ford was in dire straits. After the July Democratic convention, he trailed Jimmy Carter by the overwhelming amount of 62%-29%. One can only imagine how ugly the electoral map must have looked to campaign operatives for Mr. Ford back then. Still, his approval rating, while mediocre, was not nearly that bad. In April, May and June it was measured once each, resulting in values of 48%, 47% and 45%. Again there were no further surveys on that measure until after the election. His approval rating acted like a magnet, however. From the time the Democratic convention ended, until the Republican convention did the same, Mr. Ford continually climbed until immediately after his convention he had raised his suppot level to 45%. He would, in the end, lose a tight race, garnering 44% of the vote.

President Carter made it two incumbents in a row who were in trouble. In 1980, Mr. Carter actually was leading in the horserace matchups until some time in June, when Reagan passed him. It was likely inevitable that he would fall behind, as from mid-March through the election his approval rating would break 40 only once. After the Republican convention, Mr. Reagan lead 45%-29%. Again though, the approval rating was higher and when the Democratic convention had finished, Mr. Carter's support level had risen to 38%, which was quite similar to the approval rating measured shortly after the convention (37%). Mr. Carter did add a few more points on top of that, and took home 41% of the vote on election day.

President Reagan did not have it quite so hard. Most of 1984 found his approval rating in the mid-to-lower 50s, and his challenger, Walter Mondale, never really showed much sign of life in the polls. Still, heading in to his convention, Mr. Reagan was ever-so-slightly behind his approval rating, scoring a support level of 52% compared to the 54% approval rating (they were polling the latter much more frequently by this year). Mr. Reagan's convention scored on two levels; he raised his approval rating up to 57%, and he raised his support level to just a notch higher, 58%. Both numbers were similar to the 59% he scored on election day.

Next on our tour of the incumbent candidates is the current President's father, George H. W. Bush. His approval rating stunk. For most of the spring it had been in the low 40s, and then in the early part of the summer it was in the high 30s. The Democratic convention temporarily pushed it as low as 29%, although it would return to the pre-established level a few weeks later, hovering around (but just below) the 40% mark. Mr. Bush had trailed his challenger, Bill Clinton, since the Democratic convention, gaining 34%, 36%, and 32% in consecutive polls. His convention, however, resulted in his horserace support climbing to 42%.

In 1996, heading in to the Democratic convention, President Clinton had the support of about half of the American voters, and an approval rating slightly higher at 53%. After his convention, his support level exceeded his approval rating by 2 points-- 55%.

From these examples, some generalities can be reached. In general, it is nothing new for a President's support level to be trailing his approval rating. However, by the end of the convention, the incumbent has been able to, in the past, convince those who approve of his job performance to back him. Not only that, but usually the President is able to scrape a point or two more on top of his approval rating. This may be because of the approval rating going up as a result of the convention; the reason does not have to be clear for the result to be demonstrated.

So what will Bush's bounce be in 2004? That depends on the poll in question. For the Gallup poll, where his approval rating is right near where his support level, there will likely be a point or two increase in the President's support level. The Time poll that was released just today showing a 46-all deadlock was accompanied by a result showing a 51% job approval rating; I would expect normally a similar survey by them to show Bush gaining at least 5 points. In the Fox Opinion Dynamics poll, the approval gap was 8 points; the bounce will show larger with them than with Gallup. Rasmussen has consistently shown a 4-5 point approval gap. I expect it to evaporate.

That only tells half of the story, since a convention bounce usually involves not only adding support but eroding some of the opponent's support. Normally, this has been somewhere between as must as the incumbent's gain and half thereof. Given that there will be less of the convention televised than in the past, and given that the campaigns seem to want to keep the 'red meat' attacks to a minimum, I am anticipating the decrease in Kerry's support to be on the lower side of that spectrum. If Bush gains five points, I expect Kerry to lose 2-3 points. If Bush gains 2 points, I expect Kerry to lose 1. Given that most polls show the approval gap to be around 5 points, that will make my prediction for Bush's bounce be from 5-8 points-- similar to what I predicted for Kerry.

The bad news for the Democrats is that three of the last six incumbents actually took home more support on election day than their post-bounce support level, and one other took home just 1 point less. If Bush is like them, and comes out of his convention with 1-2 points more support than his approval rating and can then impove on it, he will be elected. The good news for the Democrats is that the last two incumbents lost ground, giving up 5-6 points from the post-convention result. If Bush is like them, then on election day he'll be back around 45% and will be defeated. The Democrats have to hope that in this way, Bush is another Clinton.

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

Polls are coming fast now. The President has made up ground, part of which may be masked by the recent Rasmussen releases, which include data from as early as the first week in August.

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 211, Bush 191	Kerry 259, Bush 250
ECB Classic	Kerry 237, Bush 202	Kerry 270, Bush 239
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 237, Bush 191	Kerry 259, Bush 250
Calculated National Result	Kerry 46.6%, Bush 46.5%

	Illinois
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 55%
Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18
3/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	1500 LV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +15
3/13/04	Copley News Service/Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +8
5/12/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Market Shares Corp.	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	742 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +13
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +16
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +15
8/16/04	Market Shares	Link	700 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14

Punditry: Illinois continues to be very different than the rest of the midwest, thanks to the overwhelming popularity of the Democrats in Chicago. According to this poll, self-identification as a Democrat in Illinois is at a 15 year high. Strong Advantage for Kerry.

	Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
555 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/23/04	Arizona State University	Link	377 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	38%	Bush +5
6/13/04	Market Solutions	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	41%	Bush +3
6/27/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
7/7/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	RV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	36%	Bush +12
7/14/04	Survey USA	Link	767 LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	41%	Bush +12
7/18/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	42%	Kerry +1
8/1/04	Market Solutions	Link	601 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
8/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	39%	Bush +8

Punditry: The ASU poll has been very volitile. In June it showed Bush up 12, and in July it showed Kerry up 1. In this poll, the margin drops to three points among likely voters, but the sample size for that is unacceptably small. Arizona remains Leaning Towards Bush.

			Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
2000 Result
Bush 48.85%
Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	LV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Insider Advantage	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	729 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/21/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	47%	Bush +3
699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/5/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
8/10/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,094 RV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
1,094 RV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
801 LV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
8/22/04	Gallup	Link	671 LV, Nader An Option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
8/24/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	500 LV, Four man race	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2

Punditry: Another in the series of polls being conducted for Libertarian candidate Badnarik. This one cannot be what he wanted to see, as he comes in below Nader and tied with Green party candidate Cobb (hmm, maybe I should have said "five man race"). Bush's job approval in Florida is slightly higher than it is nationwide. Given this and the Gallup poll, and the earlier Rasmussen mid-month update, there are three polls that show that the lead Kerry had opened up in Florida has gone away. With the last two public polls showing Bush slightly ahead, so will I. Slight Advantage for Bush.

	Indiana
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	525 RV	4.2%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +6
3/24/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4.0%	Bush	52%	Kerry	37%	Bush +15
5/19/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	540 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Kerry	33%	Bush +21
6/21/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	36%	Bush +16
7/12/04	Market Research Informatics	Link	852 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	27%	Bush +19
8/18/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	601 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	40%	Bush +12

Punditry: A four point improvement for Kerry since June, but it still is not much of a race. While it is a lot closer than I normally like states in the Safe for Bush (or Kerry) designation to be, until it goes into the single digits it is staying where it is. In the same poll, Republican Mitch Daniels leads incumbent Joe Kernan in the race for Governor.

	Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
7/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4

Punditry: Still holding steady for Kerry, although a bit less of a margin from a month ago. With this poll the ECB Classic (both with and without Zogby) designation will match the one I have had in the ECB for the recent past: Slight Advantage for Kerry. The approval gap for Bush stands at 5 points.

	California
Electoral Votes: 55
2000 Result
Gore 53%
Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +18
8/4/04	Field	Link	633 LV	3.4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
8/11/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	589 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +9

Punditry: I said last time, after the SurveyUSA poll showed it a three point race, that I would be very surprised if more polls validated that result. As suspected, the next poll released did not; it shows Kerry ahead comfortably. Still, this is quite a bit of a better result for the President in California as compared to other California polls, and such movement in this large state would explain a good amount of the movement which has been seen in the national polls. Strong Advantage for Kerry, with a distinct possibility of being redesignated as leaning if another poll shows single digits.

	Missouri
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%	Bush +10
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%	Bush +5
2/14/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/2/04	Suffolk University	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	39%	Bush +11
3/19/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	566 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	37%	Bush +11
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	755 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Market Research Institute	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Research2000	Link	802 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
802 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	636 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
636 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	643 LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/24/04	LA Times	Link	580 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5

Punditry: Rasmussen says Missouri is leaning towards Bush, but I am not going to be that aggressive with the move. Yes, the last several polls have shown the President ahead, but the margin has generally been within one span of the MoE, and this one is right at that threshold. I am going to keep Missouri as having a Slight Advantage For Bush, recognizing however that the trend is in his direction.

	Maine
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Result
Gore 49%
Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Maine is currently a slight advantage for Democrats, which is a change from ECB 2000 where it started as a slight Bush advantage. While the Republicans hold both Senate seats, everything else is in the hands of the Democrats, who enjoy a 31%-29% registration lead.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +11
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +9
3/3/04	Omnibus Poll/Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5.0%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
5/20/04	Critical Insights	Link	552 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	35%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +19
6/12/04	Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41.0%	Kerry	43.5%	Kerry +2.5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
8/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	632 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5

Punditry: Rasmussen's latest mimics SurveyUSA's latest, and confirms my designation of Maine as Leaning Towards Kerry, albeit barely. Maine is one of the states which I am most interested on seeing poll results after the Republican convention. If Bush is going to get a decent bounce, it is states like Maine which will have their race's complexion changed.

	Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 48%
Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3
7/21/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
7/23/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	641 LV	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2

Punditry: A one point improvement for the President compared to the last Rasmussen Iowa survey, but the state remains a Slight Advantage for Kerry. Bush did win a straw poll at the Iowa State Fair, however.

	Georgia
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 55%
Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
10/15/03	Zogby	Link	400 LV	4.5%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Bush +13
10/23/03	Shapiro Research Group	Link	RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +8
2/4/04	Shapiro Research Group	NA	RV	4.5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	44%	Bush +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
6/2/04	Insider Advantage	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	32%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	40%	Bush +11
801 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	38%	Bush +13
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	43%	Bush +9
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	40%	Bush +14
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	38%	Bush +16
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11

Punditry: Georgia holds steady, right near where it was in 2000. Kerry has about the same percentage of support from liberals in Georgia that Bush has from conservatives, and he leads by 16 among self-described moderates, but is losing the state by double-digits. That is how conservative Georgia is.

	Arkansas
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 46%

Background: Arkansas votes Republican, although if there is a southerner running against a northerner it will go Democrat. Carter beat Ford, and Clinton won twice. Republicans won all the rest since LBJ. Humphrey came in third here, behind Wallace.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/8/04	Arkansas State University	Link	Adults	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	565 RV	4.2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
5/2/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	546 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	546 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Push
8/22/04	SurveyUSA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6

Punditry: Bush grabs a lead in Arkansas according to Rasmussen, and this does jibe with some of the buzz I have been hearing from those I know in Arkansas. However, before I redesignate the state, I would like another confirming poll. Arkansas stays, for the moment, at Slight Advantage for Bush.

Where Maine is a state that could possibly look quite different after the Republican convention, I do not anticipate Arkansas looking much different than it looks in this poll.

	Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19
5/13/04	USA Polling Group	Link	400 Adults	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	33%	Bush +22
5/20/04	Capital Survey Research	Link	785 RV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	37%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	36%	Bush +21
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	52%	Kerry	38%	Bush +14
7/28/04	Capital Research Center	Link	590 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
8/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	599 LV	4%	Bush	58%	Kerry	37%	Bush +21
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11

Punditry: Rasmussen has been getting different results than other pollsters in Alabama. Either way, it is a comfortable Bush lead. If I get a confirming poll that Alabama is polling in the low teens or below, then I will reclassify it. Until then, I am leaving it at Safe for Bush. It would be nice to get a Delaware poll before the next Alabama poll, don't you think?

	Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat four times. LBJ crushed Goldwater, Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/19/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
7/22/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	639 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +6
639 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/23/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,047 RV	2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	44%	Bush +3
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/11/04	American Research Group	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/15/04	Gallup	Link	628 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/17/04	Ohio Poll	Link	812 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	46%	Bush +3
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
8/24/04	LA Times	Link	507 RV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
8/27/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,176 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push

Punditry: Looks like Tossup was the right call. Kerry leads by 12 points among independents; how this group responds to the Republican convention will define the shape of the remainder of the race. This poll represents a slight improvement for Kerry over his standing in the last iteration of the Dispatch poll (one of the most reliable). Ohio is tight.

	Maryland
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 57%
Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/12/04	Potomac, Inc	Link	1,200 LV	2.8%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +10
2/8/04	Gonzalez	Link	818 RV	3.5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
2/27/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +9
3/24/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	825 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/9/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +14
8/15/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	847 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +13
8/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +11
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +13

Punditry: Steady as she goes in Maryland. But along with Maine, this is one state I am most eager to see the post-convention numbers, as right now it is polling completely like a state normally does before any convention. Let me explain.

In many, if not most, states this year, the Republicans have backed Bush by approaching 90%, and Democrats backed Kerry by approaching 90%. The voters had already 'come home', for the most part, long ago-- and they usually come home during the conventions, resulting in the bounce. According to this Rasmussen survey, Bush gets just 79% of the Republicans, and Kerry gets just 76% of the Democrats. This does not look like a post-Democratic convention state. It does, however, look like the classic example of a state where Republicans have not come home, and as such could be ripe for a nice convention bounce. Why Kerry did not get one here is a good question. If Bush does get one, Kerry will have the rest of the campaign to figure out how to bring those who should be backing him home, because if those who should vote for him do he will win Maryland. Strong Advantage for Kerry.

			Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 47.83%
Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	575 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	48.4%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.5
575 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	46.1%	Kerry	44.6%	Bush +1.5
7/13/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
8/24/04	LA Times	Link	512 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3

Punditry: Recently, the Hotline surveyed Democrat and Republican insiders asking them to name the 2000 Bush states that are most vulnerable, and the 2000 Gore states which are. Both Republicans and Democrats selected Wisconsin as the Gore state most in danger of flipping. Compare the partisan support to that of Maryland, which I just updated. In Wisconsin, according to Rasmussen, "President Bush has attracted 95% of the vote among Republicans. Senator Kerry currently draws 85% of the Democratic vote." Those percentages are high and are indicative of what one would expect after the conventions. The fact that Bush has so many in his camp already suggests his Wisconsin bounce may be a bit muted. This is a tight call, but given the current momentum I am going with Slight Advantage for Bush at this point in time.

	Washington
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Gore 50%
Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/24/04	Moore Information (R)	NA	500 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	585 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +9
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/15/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/17/04	SurveyUSA	Link	602 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
8/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: Rasmussen's polling in Washington shows a state that is showing no inclination towards changing from its 2000 result. For the past few months, over serveral different polls by several different companies, it has given results just like 2000, only slightly more in favor of the Democrat Kerry. The approval gap is 4 points. Leaning Towards Kerry.

			Virginia
Electoral Votes: 13
2000 Result
Bush 52%
Gore 44%

Background: The Democrats have won here just once since Truman- when Johnson beat Goldwater. Despite the result dominance, the margins have been fairly competitive more times than not.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
12/3/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Clark	33%	Bush +15
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	686 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	46%	Bush +3
8/22/04	SurveyUSA	Link	730 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5

Punditry: The approval gap in Virginia is three points. Both SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have Virginia floating on the cusp between Slight Advantage and Leaning Towards Bush. Given the state's strong tendency to go Republican at the end, and given that the Republican convention is about to start, the latter designation is the more sensible choice at this juncture.

	Texas
Electoral Votes: 34
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/6/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	35%	Bush +19
5/15/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	58%	Kerry	29%	Bush +29
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	38%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	37%	Bush +18
8/22/04	SurveyUSA	Link	705 LV	4%	Bush	58%	Kerry	37%	Bush +21
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19

Punditry: Of course it would be 19 rather than 20-- that makes more work for me! Safe for Bush.

	South Carolina
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, won this state. You have to go back to JFK to find another Democrat who was able to do it. Most of the time, it was not all that close although Carter did make it close against Reagan too; the fact that a neighbor was able to twice make the state competitive (and once win it) means that the state will merit more attention should Edwards win the Democrat nomination.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/28/03	Hickman Research	Link	?	?	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	39%	Bush +10
6/29/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	36%	Bush +17
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	710 LV	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	727 LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	52%	Kerry	43%	Bush +9

Punditry: The approval gap is four points in South Carolina. The margin is a bit closer than one would expect, but there is still a Strong Advantage for Bush here.

	Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research/Issues PA	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
7/20/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	815 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +10
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	748 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
8/15/04	Keystone Poll	Link	660 RV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,430 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
1,430 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +5
8/18/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
8/21/04	Pew Research/Issues PA	Link	861 LV	3%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4

Punditry: This is more of the type of result that has been frequent in Pennsylvania than the Issues PA result. There are some strange partisan breakdowns in this result. Neither side is getting more than 80% of their own party's vote. This is obviously more problematic for Kerry since his convention has passed. He makes up for it with an 18 point lead among self-described independents. The approval gap in Pennsylvania is a robust 7 points. Slight Advantage for Kerry.

	Oklahoma
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/1/04	Wilson Research	NA	300 RV	5.7%	Bush	50%	Kerry	40%	Bush +10
4/1/04	Insider Advantage	Link	400 Residents	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Wilson Research	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	34%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	58%	Kerry	34%	Bush +24
6/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	651 LV	4%	Bush	60%	Kerry	34%	Bush +26
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	63%	Kerry	31%	Bush +32
7/12/04	KOTV and Tulsa World	Link	LV	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	35%	Bush +24
7/29/04	Basswood Research (R)	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	36%	Bush +20
8/18/04	SurveyUSA	Link	596 LV	5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	36%	Bush +23

	North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Lik	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15
7/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/14/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
7/22/04	Fairbanks, Maslin, Maulin, and Associaties (D)	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/26/04	SurveyUSA	Link	906 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5
8/11/04	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
8/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	592 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	45%	Bush +6
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10

Punditry: It is odd to see Rasmussen showing South Carolina closer than North Carolina. The approval gap is 5 points. Leaning Towards Bush.

	New York
Electoral Votes: 31
2000 Result
Gore 60%
Bush 35%

Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Dem +7
9/23/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +16
10/28/03	Quinnipiac	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Dem +8
11/19/03	Zogby	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Dem +5
1/7/04	Marist	Link	617 RV	4%	Bush	34%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Dem +2
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader an option	2.7%	Bush	35%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +14
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader not an option	2.7%	Bush	36%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +17
4/15/04	Marist	Link	602 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/22/04	Siena Researh Institute	Link	625 RV	3.9%	Bush	32%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	57%	Kerry +23
6/14/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,466 RV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +18
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	30%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +28
7/15/04	Siena Research	Link	604 LV	4%	Bush	29%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +22
8/9/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,161 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	35%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +18
1,161 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	35%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +20
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +19

	New Jersey
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Punditry: A little bit closer than the last Rasmussen, and still Leaning Towards Kerry. The approval gap is five points.

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Punditry: The Rasmussen numbers surprised me since they were fairly different from the mid-month update, and as such I have reversed my decision and put Michigan back in the Leaning Towards Kerry designation-- although it will likely be a closer designation when next polled due to the Republican convention. Again the approval gap is five points.

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

ECB	Kerry -44, Bush +13	Kerry -57, Bush +44
ECB Classic	Kerry +76, Bush +45	Kerry -21, Bush +7
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry +21, Bush +34	Kerry -37, Bush +23
Calculated National Result	Bush +0.2%,Kerry +0.5%

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/26/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	834 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
7/30/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	624 RV	4%	Bush	32%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +20
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
8/2/04	Quinnipiac	Link	996 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
8/9/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
8/9/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +12
8/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
8/19/04	National Research (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
8/23/04	Quinnipiac	Link	887 RV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/1/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	608 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
8/10/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6
8/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	548 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/26/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +5

Kerry					Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	OR (7) K47-B41 7/31/04	WV (5) K47-B44 7/28/04	CO (9) B47-K47 8/17/04	NV (5) B44-K42 8/17/04	TN (11) B48-K46 8/2/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	NH (4) K49-B42 8/5/04	NM (5) K49-B42 8/19/04	OH (20) K46-B46* 8/27/04	FL (27) B49-K47*L 8/24/04	AZ (10) B47-K39* 8/22/04	LA (9) B54-K38 7/??/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K56-B30 7/28/04	HI (4) K48-B41 8/3/04*	WA (11) K49-B42 8/26/04	MN (10) K48-B44*R 8/26/04	-	AR (6) B49-K43 8/26/04	NC (15) B53-K43 8/26/04	KY (8) B56-K39 8/15/04	WY (3)
NY (31) K56-B37 8/26/04	IL (21) K52-B38* 8/16/04	ME (4) K49-B44 8/26/04	PA (21) K49-B45 8/26/04	-	MO (11) B49-K44 8/26/04	VA (13) B50-K45 8/26/04	SC (8) B52-K43 8/26/04	MS (6) B61-K30 4/21/04
-	CT (7) K45-B38* 8/17/04	MI (17) K50-B45 8/26/04	IA (7) K48-B46 8/26/04	-	WI (10) B48-K45 8/26/04	-	GA (15) B53-K42 8/26/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	NJ (15) K51-B43 8/26/04	-	-	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	MD (10) K54-B41 8/26/04	-	-	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	CA (55) K51-B42 8/26/04	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B52-K40 8/18/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B59-K36 8/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B57-K38 8/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B53-K42 8/26/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
50	118	43	48	29	59	49	43	99
211			136			191