No Change in Presidential Race Despite Attack Ads

Gallup News Service ^ | August 27, 2004 | David W. Moore

[RWR8189]

Bush approval at 49%

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite extensive publicity given to attack ads that criticize Democratic candidate John Kerry's service in Vietnam, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds no change in voter preferences. President George W. Bush receives 50% support among likely voters, compared with Kerry's 47% -- identical to results in a similar poll two weeks ago. Among registered voters, the race remains a virtual tie. 

Since May, the race between Bush and Kerry among likely voters has varied within a small range -- with Kerry having a six-point lead in early June, and Bush a four-point lead at the end of July.

Although Bush's lead in the current poll is within the poll's margin of error, Bush has maintained this lead in three successive polls, with a combined sample size of more than 2,000 likely voters. This consistency of support suggests that Bush enjoys a real, though small, lead among likely voters nationally.

The race is tighter among registered voters. Kerry receives 48% support to Bush's 47%, while the numbers were reversed in the Aug. 9-11 poll. In the July 30-Aug. 1 poll, each candidate received 48% support. All these results suggest that little has changed since the Democratic National Convention took place in Boston during the last week in July, and that neither candidate has an advantage among all registered voters.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[coconutt2000]

There is only a tie because the press is complicit in keeping the issues detrimental to Kerry confused.

Once Kerry is exposed, then you can expect to see the tie broken.

[coconutt2000]

I meant, exposed beyond a shadow of a doubt, so that even the media can't defend him without exposing their bias to the comatose 30% of the population.

[RWR8189]

Here you go.

 

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader Based on Registered Voters

	August 23-25			August 9-11			July 30-August 1
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	46	46	4	45	46	5	47	48	2
Gender
Men	42	51	4	44	47	3	45	51	2
Women	49	42	4	46	44	6	49	45	3
Race
Whites	40	52	4	39	53	3	41	54	3
Non-whites	69	22	3	68	17	11	70	24	2
Age
18-49	45	46	5	45	46	6	45	50	3
50-64	44	50	4	46	44	4	50	44	2
65+	49	45	1	44	47	2	48	47	2
Region
East	51	39	5	55	34	5	51	42	4
Midwest	49	43	4	43	48	2	49	45	3
South	38	56	1	40	54	4	41	55	2
West	49	42	8	43	43	9	50	46	1
Education
Post-graduate	54	41	3	50	44	4	53	44	1
College graduate	53	41	2	49	42	5	41	53	4
Some college	42	50	4	45	46	5	46	48	3
High school or less	43	47	5	42	47	5	47	47	2
Income
$75,000 or more	40	57	2	39	54	4	41	55	2
$50,000-$74,999	40	51	7	45	50	4	42	53	4
$30,000-$49,999	45	48	3	45	42	4	50	45	3
Less than $30,000	56	33	5	53	37	7	61	33	1
Ideology
Conservative	20	74	3	18	74	4	20	76	1
Moderate	55	37	3	56	33	5	56	38	2
Liberal	78	11	9	81	9	7	83	10	7
Partisanship
Republicans	9	88	2	6	89	2	5	92	1
Independents	46	37	8	44	37	10	46	41	7
Democrats	88	8	2	87	6	5	91	7	1

[dvwjr]

Thanks so much.

Get right on the analysis...


dvwjr

[commish]

Does this seem a little out of whack to anyone else? Kerry leads 54-41 among Post Graduate level people, and 53-42 among college graduates -- Yet Bush leads 57-40 among those making $75,000 or more and 51-40 among those making 50-75,000.

So according to Gallop, COllege Graduates make less than $30,000 (only place Kerry's $ numbersd match his education numbers) and people who have only gone to HS or done some college make over $50,000.

[curmudgeonII]

Your demographic data indicate that we never ought to have given women the right to vote.

[Peace will be here soon]

The thing missing here is that Pres. Bush was not harmed by the Dem. Convention and/or the attack ads "focused against him ", from MoveOn.org and their ilk!

Funny, that seemed to be missing from the survey. ( unless I skipped over something).

So with the Republican Convention coming up, the Presidents numbers should trend up even more. This should put a real panic in the Rat camp. Which is what we are currently seeing.

[thoughtomator]

Kerry needed to be 10-15 points up by this point to have a chance of success. He's toast.

[George W. Bush]

Still too early for the polls to mean much. I think Kerry has been hurt a little more by the Swifties than the numbers indicate here.

[WakeUpAndVote]

Nice stats!

Way to back it up with numbers.

[etradervic]

True at a national level. But, key swing states have seen Bush gaining ground in OH, FL, MO, WI, and PA over the past 2 months.

[Uncle Hal]

Your right something is wrong with these figures. The GOP usually leads among the better educated and richer people. Plus the better educated would be making more money.

[goldstategop]

The Convention will help the President put Kerry away. People are waiting to see how he does. Then you'll see real movement in the polls.

[RWR8189]

I've writing my Congressman about that 19th amendment retraction for years.

Never seems to get anywhere....

[etradervic]

This is true. But the Partyline Press will be doing its best post-convention to "advertise" for Kerry. They are desperately trying to regain political power. It's not going to be pretty.