Posted on 08/25/2004 11:25:02 PM PDT by Jewels1091
New LA TIMES Poll: Kerry hurt by Swift Boat attacks, Bush ahead 49% -46% for the first time this year, Bush takes 15% of all Democrats, 20% of 'conservative/moderate' Democrats while Kerry takes 3% of Republicans...
If LA Times has even a small amount of honesty I would say this is a state poll because I can't believe Bush hasen't led nationally at all for the whole year even with their skewed samples.
Hoo Rah!
already here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1199626/posts
No way Bush is ahead in a CA state poll, especially in the LA Slimes. Must be national. Seems in line with other national polls.
Good stuff :o)
This is a national poll. And the numbers must be even better for W.
"The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,597 adults, including 1,352 REGISTERED voters nationwide, from Saturday through Tuesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."
REGISTERED voters... Republicans usually show better with the LIKELY voters.
This is why I don't believe polls are really a good gauge even if they do have a large sample. I don't really believe Bush is within the margin of error in CA but I do think some polls might possibly say so.
This is why I don't believe polls are really a good gauge even if they do have a large sample. I don't really believe Bush is within the margin of error in CA but I do think some polls might possibly say so.
I suppose polling some people who aren't even registered to vote is the Times' way of slanting the sample in favor of democrats without being so obvious about it. Why would you poll people who aren't even registered?
"I suppose polling some people who aren't even registered to vote is the Times' way of slanting the sample in favor of democrats without being so obvious about it. Why would you poll people who aren't even registered?"
You got that right. Bottom line, they think we're stupid.
Here are the LA Times August 21st-24th, 2004 published poll internal numbers for political affiliation for the three-way race between Bush, Kerry and Nader. These LA Times poll data are in a table format for easy reading.
This national three-way race poll which had 1,352 Registered voters, now shows Bush in the lead by 3% with Bush 47%, Kerry 44%, Nader 3%. The MoE is ±3.0% for this LA Times poll question number six.
Source: LA Times Presidential poll - August 21-24, 2004 PDF file, released August 25th, 2004: Question #6, page 9 of 25.
Here below is the distribution of the 1,352 registered voters necessary to recreate the numbers show in the table directly above. Remember that the numbers below must be rounded to NO decimal places to match the above LA Times published data.
So the partisan affiliation weightings that were used by the LA Times are indicated in the table below. Remember, because of LA Times rounding of their poll numbers, the below breakdowns might have a ±1.2% variance. That being said, it appears that this latest LA Times three-way race presidential preference poll has 9.1% more Democrats than Republicans in its sample population. A 2%-3% advantage for Democrats over Republicans might be a more realistic set of demographic splits.
So what would the LA Times poll look like with a more reasonable national sample of say 35.1%(R), 37.1%(D), 27.8%(I)? Look below and you would see that Bush would now have a 7.8% lead, which would be clearly outside the 'Margin of Error' of the LA Times poll. Kerry has been sinking swiftly...
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
Terrific work. Thanx.
Is any point within a margin of error range any more likely than any other? My recollection is that it isn't, but the media breathlessly speaks of "2 point swings" and such. Not to mention the 95% confidence level that they totally ignore.
15% of ALL Democrats - heh - I'm surprised liberals would even vote for a man described by the ABB crowd as the "Prince Of Darkness." I expected conservative to moderate Democrats to cross over to our side --- but libs? Maybe the Swifties are getting to them or God knows what for I can't explain the Left, folks.
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