Posted on 08/23/2004 9:00:36 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
The US media still largely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” As a result, most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East. In fact they were one of the first countries to have spontaneous candlelight vigils after the 911 tragedy (see photo).
There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. I began these daily threads June 10th 2003. On that date Iranians once again began taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Today in Iran, most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy.
The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.
In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.
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This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.
I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.
If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.
If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.
DoctorZin
Bolton On Iran Nuclear Challenge
August 23, 2004
Voice of America
Editorial
The following is an editorial reflecting the views of the United States Government:
John Bolton, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, says Iran's "large-scale, covert, nuclear weapons program" poses a "fundamental" challenge to the world:
"We cannot let Iran, a leading sponsor of international terrorism, acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to Europe, most of central Asia and the Middle East, or beyond. Without serious, concerted, immediate intervention by the international community, Iran will be well on the road to doing so."
Mr. Bolton says that Iran is seeking to develop highly enriched uranium and plutonium for use in nuclear bombs. According to Mr. Bolton, "The costly infrastructure Iran is building. . .goes well beyond any conceivable peaceful nuclear program." He says that "the time to report this issue to the [United Nations] Security Council is long overdue. To fail to do so would risk sending a signal to would-be proliferators that there are not serious consequences for pursuing secret nuclear weapons programs."
The International Atomic Energy Agency meets again in September. It could decide to send Iran's case to the U-N Security Council for action.
President George W. Bush says the U.S. is "working with responsible governments and international institutions to convince the leaders of. . .Iran that their nuclear weapons ambitions are deeply contrary to their own interests."
http://www.voanews.com/Editorials/article.cfm?objectID=FDC419C4-87A4-4365-A61EE3BDD8492CA9&title=8%2F23%2F04%20%2D%20BOLTON%20ON%20IRAN%20NUCLEAR%20CHALLENGE
One potential military option that would be available to the United States includes the use of air strikes on Iranian weapons of mass destruction and missile facilities.
In all, there are perhaps two dozen suspected nuclear facilities in Iran. The 1000-megawatt nuclear plant Bushehr would likely be the target of such strikes. According to the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, the spent fuel from this facility would be capable of producing 50 to 75 bombs. Also, the suspected nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak will likely be targets of an air attack.
American air strikes on Iran would vastly exceed the scope of the 1981 Israeli attack on the Osiraq nuclear center in Iraq, and would more resemble the opening days of the 2003 air campaign against Iraq. Using the full force of operational B-2 stealth bombers, staging from Diego Garcia or flying direct from the United States, possibly supplemented by F-117 stealth fighters staging from al Udeid in Qatar or some other location in theater, the two-dozen suspect nuclear sites would be targeted.
Military planners could tailor their target list to reflect the preferences of the Administration by having limited air strikes that would target only the most crucial facilities in an effort to delay or obstruct the Iranian program or the United States could opt for a far more comprehensive set of strikes against a comprehensive range of WMD related targets, as well as conventional and unconventional forces that might be used to counterattack against US forces in Iraq.
The Israeli Air Force received the first two of 25 F-15I Ra’am (Thunder) aircraft, the Israeli version of the F-15E Strike Eagle, in January 1998, and as of early 2004 had an inventory of 25 aircraft. Depending on the required flight profile and weapons load, the F-15E has a typical combat radius of 1270 km, and a "maximum" combat radius of 1,853 km [in unspecified configuration and flight profile]. Probable strike targets such as Bushehr and Esfahan lie about 1,500 km from Israel.
Israeli tanker assets are poorly attested in open sources. IISS claims that the IAF has a total of 5 Re'em" ("Antelope") tankers (4 KC-707, 1 KC-135). Periscope thinks that the 6 Boeing 707-320 R'em (Unicorn) aircraft are transports, but reports that there are 5 KC-707 Saknayee (Pelican) tankers. Aeroflight says there are a total of four Boeing 707-320 aircraft converted to a KC-707 configuration of unspecified designation. What is probably the most reliable SOURCE agrees that a total of five Boeing 707-320 aircraft, acquired between January 1983 and November 1999, have been converted to a KC-707 configuration of unspecified designation.
Even though the uranium facility at Natanz has been buried underground, it remains vulnerable. As Lieutenant Colonel Eric M. Sepp noted, "The "cut-and-cover" facilities are constructed by digging a hole, inserting a facility, and then covering it up with dirt and rocks. These cut-and-cover facilities can be just below the surface of the ground or may reach a depth of perhaps 100 feet, and represent the vast majority of underground facilities today. In the case of contemporary cut-and-cover facilities, there is no question that conventional munitions can defeat them."
The air strikes option does have the same problems that one would face in North Korea, namely that Iran has a rather significant air defense capability which could complicate use plans. However, unlike North Korea, Iran is not in a position to hold US soldiers or allied civilian populations (Iraq) hostage. A full-scale Iranian military retaliation, though possible, is highly unlikely, especially with the significant US force presence in Iraq. It is possible that Iran could use its ballistic missiles to strike US or allied targets throughout the Persian Gulf region, and in fact Iranian officials have explicitly promised to do just that.
One major uncertainty concerning the probability of disarming preventive strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure is the question of American and Israeli assessments of their confidence in their assessments of the completeness of their understanding of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. It will be recalled that when the US contemplated striking China's nuclear infrastructure in mid-1964, prior to China's first nuclear test, their were doubts about the completeness of US intelligence. In fact, the US was surprised when China detonated a uranium bomb, since the US had overestimated the progress of China's plutonium program, and seriously underestimated the progress of China's uranium enrichment program.
Iran's partners -- North Korea and Pakistan -- present contrasting studies in clandestine facilities. It appears that US intelligence has incomplete intelligence concerning some aspects of North Korea's plutonium program [mainly relating to whether there are undetected reprocessing facilities], and almost complete ignorance of the whereabouts of the DPRK's uranium program. The missing facilities are presumably at hidden underground locations. It is generally believed that Pakistan's major nuclear material production facilities are above ground and reasonably well characterized.
Iran appears to have a complete copy of Pakistan's fissile material production complex -- uranium conversion, uranium enrichment, heavy water production, and a heavy water plutonium production reactor. Elements of these facilities have been hardened against attack, notably the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, which has been buried under a thick layer of earth. All of these facilities are heavily defended by anti-aircraft missiles and guns.
One cannot exclude the possibility, however, that some or all of the visible nuclear weapons complex is simply a decoy, designed to draw attention. It is possible that Iran, like North Korea and unlike Pakistan, has buried nuclear weapons production capabilities that have escaped detection, and would continue in operation even if the visible facilities were destroyed. There are persistent rumors of such hidden facilities, but little in the way of circumstantial evidence to give credence to these rumors.
Amrom Katz, a shrewd arms control analyst at Rand Corporation many years ago, said, "We have never found anything that the Soviets have successfully hidden" [ Verification and SALT: The Challenge of Strategic Deception, W.C. Potter, Ed. (Westview, Boulder, CO, 1980), p 212). The issue for attack planners is how many undetected facilities have been successfully hidden in Iran.
Assessing the probability of the existence of a parallel clandestine program must take into account probable Iranian strategies for successful completion of their weapons acquisition effort. There has been essentially no detectable discussion of this question in the open literature, which is something of a puzzle in itself. That is to say, is everything unfolding as they had foreseen, or have things gone badly off track?
The preponderance of evidence and reasoning leads to the assumption that there is no underground nuclear infrastructure, and that the above ground infrastructure constitutes Iran's nuclear weapons program.
As some of the facilities are still under construction and not yet active the United States may have a window of opportunity that would allow it to destroy those locations without causing the environmental problems associated with the destruction of an active nuclear reactor.
The window of opportunity for disarming strikes against Iran will begin to close in 2005. It appears that the Uranium conversion facility in Esfahan will begin operation some time in 2005, as will the heavy water production plant at Arak. Barring further delays, the fuel for the reactor at Bushehr is also slated to be delivered in 2005, with reactor operations commencing some months after delivery. Significant Uranium enrichment could begin at Natanz in 2006, and plutonium production could begin at Arak by 2010.
Many aircraft are still in the region supporting Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. By late June 2003, the United States had aircraft at multiple locations throughout the Persian Gulf, including Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Diego Garcia. While the number of aircraft in the region has declined significantly since the end of major hostilities in Iraq, the United States continues to have a number of F-15Es, F-16s, naval aircraft, and some unidentified number of heavy bombers in the region.
Information regarding how many aircraft are actually in the Persian Gulf region is scant as units are returning to the United States and it is not clear if units are being sent as replacements. By mid-June 2003 there were no longer any AWACs in region and stealth aircraft had long since departed for the United States. Insufficient information regarding available aircraft makes it impossible to predict how many Joint Direct Attack Munition capable aircraft were available for strikes and how many potential aim points this would provide to mission planners.
Redeploying US forces to the region would take a small amount of time, but the absence of significant numbers of stealth aircraft, early warning aircraft, and other assets by late June 2003 indicates that the United States was not actively considering the air strikes options.
Since the end of major hostilities in Iraq the United States has kept only one aircraft carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf region in support of Iraqi Freedom. Tomahawk cruise missiles deployed on cruisers, destroyers, and submarines could also be used to strike fixed locations. The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group, the only group located in the Persian Gulf in June 2003, has nearly 500 verticle launch system cells which could mean that roughly 250 Tomahawks were available for tasking.
On 15 July 2004 William S. Lind suggested that "an American-Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Such an attack may very well be on the agenda as the "October Surprise," the distraction President George W. Bush desperately needs if the debacle in Iraq is not to lead to his defeat in November."
Iranian Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi said in the northeastern city of Gorgan on 25 July 2004 that there is a "weak" possibility that archfoe Israel will attack Iran, Fars News Agency reported the same day. "Still, Iran has thought of the measures needed to repulse all attacks," he said. Separately, the head of the Iranian regular army's land forces, Brigadier General Nasir Mohammadifar, said in Mashhad in northeastern Iran on 25 July, "America would have attacked Iran by now if it were sure it could defeat us." Mohammadifar told a gathering of army inspectors that the United States is "intensely aware" of its "absolute" inability to attack Iran.
Brig. Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, the deputy chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards, said in a statement issued 17 August 2004, "If Israel fires a missile into the Bushehr nuclear power plant, it has to say goodbye forever to its Dimona nuclear facility, where it produces and stockpiles nuclear weapons." The head of the Revolutionary Guards' political bureau, Yadollah Javani, said said in a separate statement that "All the territory under the control of the Zionist regime, including its nuclear facilities, are within the range of Iran's advanced missiles."
Iranian presidential adviser Hojatoleslam Ali-Akbar Mohtashami-Pur commented on events in Al-Najaf in a 19 August 2004 interview with Al-Jazeera television. "We consider this a war between infidelity and Islam. The United States is the spearhead of infidelity. Naturally, we condemn this escalation by the Americans.... We condemn this big massacre against Muslims in Iraq." A day earlier he addressed this topic in an interview with ISNA. He said, "America, its supporters, and international Zionism" will target other Islamic countries if they succeed in Iraq and Palestine, and he accused them of pursuing an anti-Islamic "vendetta."
Iran might launch pre-emptive strikes to protect its nuclear facilities if they are threatened, Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani said in remarks broadcast on 20 August 2004 . "We won't sit with our hands tied and wait until someone does something to us," Shamkhani told Arabic channel Al Jazeera when asked what Iran would do if the United States or Israel attacked its atomic facilities. "Some military leaders in Iran are convinced that the pre-emptive measures that America is talking about are not their right alone," he added in Persian. "Any strike on our nuclear facilities will be regarded as a strike on Iran and we will respond with all our might."
Gee, these guys are pretty sharp! Wonder what tipped em off? </sarcasm>
On August 15th, The Revolutionary Brigades of the Iranian Army held a military parade in which they displayed the Shaab 3 missile that Israeli intelligence experts estimate has a range of 1300 kilometers, that even with a potential nuclear payload can reach any target in Israel. Not only can the Shaab missile hit Israel, but it could also hit U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf and other American bases throughout Turkey. Meanwhile, Israel's chief of military intelligence, Major General Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, told the Israeli government last July that Iran had supplied hundreds of Iranian-made missiles to Hezbollah that can hit all of northern Israel and territory as far south as Tel Aviv. In addition, another several dozen missiles can reach the southern city of Beersheba in southern Israel’s Negev desert. Last September, the Iranians conducted a test launching of the Shaab 3 missile and thousands of Iranians cheered the banner and slogan which accompanied the test: "WE WILL WIPE ISRAEL OFF OF THE FACE OF THE EARTH." Iran had pioneered the Shaab missile in 1992. Modeled after the North Korean "Nu-Ding 1" weapon, it was improved by German, Russian and Pakistani technologies. Two weeks ago, a senior official of Israeli Air Force Intelligence testified at a closed session of the Israeli Knesset (parliament) Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel’s Arrow missile defense capability could do little to stop any such barrage of this kind of missile. Israel’s Arrow missile is designed to intercept S.C.U.D. missiles or other lower grade potential missiles only. This week, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton confirmed that Iran indeed told European representatives that it would be able to manufacture nuclear weapons within four years and that within a year it would be able to enrich uranium itself that can be used in such weapons of mass destruction. Bolton said that Iranian representatives made these statements in meetings with representatives from Britain, Germany and France. Bolton also said that the United States is consulting not only with officials from those three countries, but also with representatives from Russia and Japan and other governments regarding Iran's nuclear capability. He said that the consultations are taking place before a meeting of the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency next month. Israeli nuclear expert Dr. Gerald M. Steinberg, writing in The Jerusalem Post on August 20th, 2004 agreed that International Atomic Energy Agency head, Dr. Mohamed El Baradei, is trying to find a "non-confrontational solution." However, Steinberg expressed skepticism about the need for dialogue and negotiations, since, in Steinberg’s words, "The evidence of Teheran's violations of commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is clearly presented in IAEA reports, but there is little willingness to do anything about it." Israel responded to a comparable threat in 1981 by bombing the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq, incurring the wrath and condemnation of the world, including the U.S. Today, the world understands Israel’s actions. But asked if the United States would support a pre-emptive strike, such as Israel did against Iraq in 1981 to end Iran's nuclear program, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) said, "I'm not going to speculate for a moment on a pre-emptive strike or any specific action." With mounting concern in the Bush administration that Israel might be planning to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, Washington Post columnist Jim Hoagland mentioned in his April column that "A grim warning from Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to President Bush that Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than U.S. intelligence believes, has triggered concern here that Israel is seriously considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor." According to Hoagland, who quoted U.S. and Israeli sources, Sharon brought Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant, his army liaison officer, "to shower a worried-looking Bush with photographs and charts from a thick dossier on Iran's covert program." However, Israeli officials said that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon did not mention the possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr when he met with U.S. President George W. Bush in Washington last April. Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former CIA Director Robert Gates, co-authors of a new study on Iran, said it was unlikely such a strike would be effective and it would "damage" U.S. interests. To carry out such a strike, Israel would almost certainly have to fly over airspace controlled by the United States, meaning America could be judged complicit with the Israeli action, Brzezinski said. He added that military action would harm prospects for political change in Iran by galvanizing nationalistic fervor and this could further damage U.S. interests, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq (As if nationalistic fervor was not already existent in the Islamic fundamentalist dictatorship). In a document issued in May, the Report of an Independent Task Force, written by former Carter National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and former CIA Director Robert M. Gates, sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, these experts posited that "Since Washington would be blamed for any unilateral Israeli military strike, the United States should, in any case, make it quite clear to Israel that U.S. interests would be adversely affected by such a move. In addition, any military effort to eliminate Iranian weapons capabilities runs the significant risk of reinforcing Tehran’s desire to acquire a nuclear deterrent and of provoking nationalist passions in defense of that very course. It would most likely generate also hostile Iranian initiatives in Iraq and Afghanistan." In conclusion, these two experts write, "This time the stakes are higher, more complicated and the consequences could be graver. An Israeli strike on Iran would endanger the lives of the 138,000 American troops currently deployed in Iraq, who could fall prey to Iran's vengeance. Iran is unlikely to take the bombing of its nuclear facilities lying down. Iran would never buy into the belief that an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities was not carried out with the approval, or at least an inferred green light, from Washington." Since that report was written, Israeli intelligence sources report that American officials are demanding assurances that Jerusalem has no plans to launch a unilateral strike as reported in the Forward, an American-Jewish daily newspaper. According to Israeli intelligence sources, Israel would prefer any way that the United States handle the problem through either diplomatic means or force and that Israel would like to maintain a low profile, letting the Americans lead the campaign against the Iranian program. To that end, Israeli officials are not commenting right now. .The New York Sun reported on Aug. 5, that the United States would not rule out covert military action against Iranian nuclear installations. Add this quote to the situation: "Israeli intelligence has intercepted senior Iranian military officers who have implored the Iranian defense ministry to take pre-emptive action against Israel and the U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. At a time when Iran sees itself surrounded on both sides by American military forces, Israeli intelligence has warned the U.S. that the Iranians may act sooner than expected." Will tiny Israel be called upon to once again save the world from a potential nuclear war as in 1981? Or will the U.S. allow a disaster to occur first? The Bush administration is considering "many means" to prevent the Islamic republic from building a nuclear weapon, according to Condoleeza Rice, President Bush’s security adviser. Meanwhile, it is Israel that is under the gun if the President’s strategy fails, not to mention U.S. soldiers in Iraq and the rest of the western world. Is a cold war with a nuclear capable Iraq in store for the future like the one that the U.S. endured with the Soviet Union for over 40 years? Only time will tell.
Middle East expert, John Loftus (often seen on Fox News), sent us the following exclusive report:
In the last 30 days, clans whose relatives have been murdered by Moqtada Sadr have been kidnapping his Iranian bosses, including the Iranian consul general in Karbala. The Iranian consul has been talking like a waterfall. Soon afterwards, four Iranian reporters from IRNA were arrested as Iranian spies, and 60 others are under interrogation.
BTW hand grenades and mortars in Najaf are new and marked “made in Iran.”
Iran’s plan was to have Moqtada Sadr declare in independent Shiite state with its capital in Najaf. Iran planned simultaneous uprisings in Fallujah with its al Qaeda proxies. Everything collapsed when their Intel net was arrested.
The Iraqi government is sitting on videotaped confessions of Iranian agents. Watch for it all to come out in September when the UN debates sanctions on peace loving Iran.
I count myself as one of many who believe the current regime in Iran had an active part in 9/11 and continues to be an active supporter of al Qaeda.
Geopolitically it is important to control Afghanistan and Iraq before we take on Iran. I am hopeful that cheerleading from the sidelines will be sufficient to bring about the downfall of the current regime from internal revolt.
But I am sanguine about the chances for a successful revolt in a suppressed population. Tienamen Square is an example of what can happen when urban university students think their view is universal, then find themselves facing rural, less privileged army recruits.
Revolts have to be planned meticulously. In the American revolution, one patriot befriended English soldiers and officers and read everything he could about artillery, and discussed the subject endlessly with his "English friends."
Liberals often make the mistake of thinking that good intentions win the day. They don't. Superior strategy, weaponry, and organization and training (in secret cells like our Sons of Liberty) are all part of a successful revolution. After that foreign friends who can add monetary and military support (like France during our Revolution) can tip the 'day', with the understanding that the day may be years in coming and may be preceded by many Valley Forge winters and lost campaigns.
There is a great deal of hard work and terrible sacrifice involved, as well as patience and cunning.
I will pray that there are enough in Iran who understand this and are already working for their freedom.
Aug. 24, 2004
Rock band Queen, fronted by gay icon Freddie Mercury, has become the first rock act to receive an official seal of approval in Iran. Western music is strictly censored in the Islamic republic, where homosexuality is considered a crime. But an album of Queen's greatest hits was released in Iran on Monday. Mercury, who died in 1991, was proud of his Iranian ancestry, and illegal bootleg albums and singles made Queen one of the most popular bands in Iran. Lyrics explained The album contains hits such as Bohemian Rhapsody, The Miracle and I Want to Break Free, but reportedly omits a number of Queen's love songs. The cassette, costing less than $1 (55 pence), comes complete with translated lyrics and an explanatory leaflet. It tells Queen fans that Bohemian Rhapsody is about a young man who has accidentally killed someone and, like Faust, sold his soul to the devil. On the night before his execution he calls God in Arabic, "Bismillah", and so regains his soul from Satan. Akbar Safari, a salesman at a Tehran book and record store, said the album was already selling very well. "It is the first rock album to hit the market legally and people are surprised and pleased to see it has the lyrics, not just the music," he said. Other western acts to have had albums of selected songs released on the official Iranian market include Elton John, Julio Iglesias and The Gypsy Kings. Books containing original and translated lyrics by many western singers have also been published in Iran, in response to the demands of a nation where 70% of the population is aged under 30. The books contain lyrics by artists such as Leonard Cohen, Celine Dion and controversial rapper Eminem.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/music/3593532.stm
WELLINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is looking for a reason to act against Iran amid accusations Tehran is secretly developing atomic weapons, Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said in remarks published on Tuesday.
The United Nations nuclear watchdog has been investigating Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran says is aimed solely at generating electricity rather than nuclear weapons.
The U.S. wants the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to report Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for what it says are violations of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
"Nobody can deny our rights to have nuclear technology for peaceful purposes," the Dominion-Post newspaper quoted Kharrazi as saying during a visit to New Zealand, which holds a seat on the 18-member board of the IAEA.
"Animosity has prevailed in the U.S. for many years now and therefore they have been looking for excuses (to act against Iran)," said Kharrazi who leaves New Zealand on Tuesday after a two-day visit.
New Zealand's Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Iran's assurances that its nuclear program was peaceful.
"However, you would have to be concerned at the length of time which it is taking for the IAEA to be able to get to the bottom of what exactly it is that Iran is actually doing," she was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
It was "absolutely critical" that Iran complied fully with the agency's request to accelerate its co-operation, Clark said.
Tehran said last month it had resumed making parts for uranium enrichment centrifuges, which can be used to make bomb material, adding .
But Iran said it is entitled to carry out such activities under the NPT and said it would not give up its right to pursue enrichment technology to produce fuel for nuclear power reactors.
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JERUSALEM — The distribution of anti-radiation pills to residents near Israel's nuclear reactor at Dimona last month caused more puzzlement than panic. There had never been a known radiation leak from the facility and there were no signs of war that might pose a near-term risk to the reactor.
Pronouncements from military chiefs in Tehran and Tel Aviv, however, have cast the pill distribution in a new light.
"The entire Zionist territory, including its nuclear facilities and atomic arsenal, are currently within range of Iran's advanced missiles," Yadollah Javani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's political bureau, declared last week.
He was speaking after a test-firing of the ballistic Shihab-3 missile. With a range of 800 miles, it can reach any target in Israel, most particularly Dimona.
Mr. Javani said threats had been made by U.S. and Israeli officials to disrupt Iran's nuclear program. But with Israel now covered by the Shihab missile, he said, "neither the Zionist regime nor America will carry out its threats."
Gen. Moshe Ya'alon, the Israeli chief of staff, sounded no less pugnacious in an interview in the newspaper Yediot Ahronot. Iran's nuclear development, said the general, must be halted, one way or another, before it proceeds much further.
"Iran is striving for nuclear capability," he said, "and I suggest that in this matter [Israel] not rely on others," a clear reference to diplomatic efforts by the United States and European powers to get Iran to give up its ambitions.
Gen. Ya'alon noted that Israel had eliminated Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981, destroying the facility in a long-range air attack just before it was to come on line. Imagine what it would be like, said Gen. Ya'alon, if Saddam Hussein had been permitted to achieve a nuclear capability.
Israeli officials say the diplomatic efforts have succeeded in slowing down Iran's nuclear development by about two years. An intelligence assessment made to the Israeli Cabinet last month said Tehran will be able to produce enriched uranium on its own for nuclear weapons in 2007, not in 2005 as previously thought.
However, an unusual sense of urgency was attached to the distribution of Lugol anti-radiation pills by the Defense Ministry and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission. The agencies sent soldiers from house to house in two towns near the Dimona reactor and from tent to tent in adjacent Bedouin areas instead of keeping them stored in a regional facility until needed.
An air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities is well within Israel's operational capacity. A major reason its air force purchased F-15Is from the United States in the 1990s was to have a warplane capable of operating over Iran. Israel's Ofek satellite presumably is able to provide updated intelligence information on Iran's nuclear sites.
If Israel carried out an attack, it almost certainly would be done before Iran activated the reactor so as to avoid radioactive fallout that would endanger civilian areas. It is the political and strategic fallout that Israel would have to consider before undertaking such an attack.
Israel fears that some moderate and even friendly countries in the region might change their policies if they thought they could hide under an Iranian nuclear umbrella. "If Iran has nuclear capability," said Gen. Ya'alon, "it would be a different Middle East. Moderate states would become more extreme."
TEHRAN, Iran - Iran said Tuesday it was producing nuclear defense equipment to protect its citizens in case of any possible attack on its nuclear facilities, according to Tuesday media reports.
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said U.S. sanctions had forced Iran to seek self-sufficiency to meet all its defense requirements, the government-owned Persian daily Iran reported.
"Iran has produced nuclear defense equipment," Iran quoted Shamkhani as saying.
"If our nuclear power plants are targeted, there will be radioactive releases. You need special equipment to control it. Also, some countries in our neighborhood have achieved nuclear technology. We have to be prepared if there is an accident there," Shamkhani was quoted as saying.
The minister did not elaborate on the type of equipment Iran was producing.
Defense Ministry officials, contacted by The Associated Press Tuesday, refused comment.
India and Iran's western neighbor, Pakistan, have nuclear weapons. Israel is also believed to possess hundreds of nuclear warheads.
Shamkhani said U.S sanctions have benefited Iran, rather than harming it.
"One of the reasons for our success is various sanctions imposed on us. When we felt all technological doors are closed to us, we had no option but to seek self-sufficiency and produce our needs ourselves," he said.
Iran threatened last week to destroy Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor should the Jewish state attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
In late July Israeli military Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon issued a tacit warning about Iran's nuclear weapons program.
"In the past few days, the past two weeks, Iran in essence broke the rules of the game of the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspections and started operating this project again," he said in an interview with Israeli state-run television.
"We have to pay serious attention to Iran's intention to arm itself with nuclear capabilities. This should not only concern Israel, but all the countries of the free world," Yaalon added.
Iran announced last week it had successfully test-fired a new version of the Shahab-3, which has a range of 810 miles. Israel is about 600 miles west of Iran.
Iran launched an arms development program during its 1980-88 war with Iraq to compensate for a U.S. weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and a fighter plane.
US Warplanes Enter Iran's Air Space
August 24, 2004
Xinhua News Agency
Xinhua
TEHRAN -- Five US warplanes entered Iran's air space last Thursday night from the country's southwestern border, an Iranian newspaper reported Tuesday.
The Persian daily Seday-e Edalat said the five US jet warplanes entered Iran from the southwestern Shalamcheh border and flew over the border city of Khorramshahr for a while.
The planes flew at a height of 10 kilometers overhead the city before heading to the Arvand River, the Iranian part of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, the paper added.
While the objective of the fight violation was not known yet, some military specialists believed such moves were aimed at assessing the sensitivity of Iran's anti-aircraft defense system, the paper said.
Military and air force officials didn't make comments on the incident, according to the report.
In June, three British boats and eight marines aboard were detained for several days by Iranian naval guards for their alleged intrusion into Iran's territorial waters in Arvand river.
http://www.xinhuanet.org/
IMF Tells Iran to Rein in Gov't Spending, Subsidies
August 24, 2004
Christian Oliver
Reuters
TEHRAN -- Iran risks economic instability and low growth if it allows its current account to plunge deep into the red and fails to rein in generous public spending, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.
It said Iran's buoyant 6.7 percent GDP growth could be hauled down by rampant liquidity growth and the current account sliding into deficit in 2004/2005.
"These (factors), together with weaknesses in the financial system, could lead to macroeconomic instability and low growth rates," said the IMF's preliminary conclusions from its "Article IV" annual review of Iran's economy.
"Efforts to rein in government spending are needed in 2004/05 to contain liquidity growth and build savings in the OSF," the report added.
The findings were posted on the Central Bank of Iran Web site.
The IMF said Tehran had been lavishing money on subsidies and raiding the Oil Stabilisation Fund (OSF), a rainy-day kitty whose reserves oil-rich Iran should be bolstering while crude prices flirt with record highs.
The IMF forecast liquidity growth of broad money supply (M2) would hit 29 percent in the year to March 2005, outstripping government forecasts of 20 to 24 percent.
Iran is debating a five-year economic development plan (2005-2010) over the course of which the reformist government has targetted average annual economic growth of eight percent. The IMF thought this figure was optimistic.
"Real GDP is forecast to average 5.5 percent," the report said, using models that pencilled in a gradual oil price fall to a barrel at the end of the period.
The IMF reiterated its view, aired in June, that growth in the year to March 2005 would be about 6.5 percent.
The current account deficit was seen widening progressively after the surplus swings into the red in 2004/2005 and the OSF's reserves could be exhausted by 2010.
Iran's current account surplus fell to 1.5 percent of GDP in 2003/2004 from 13 percent of GDP in 2000/2001.
IRAN SAYS DEFICIT NOT SHORT-TERM CONCERN
But Ebrahim Sheibani, governor of the Central Bank of Iran, said foreign reserves and the low level of foreign debt meant the current account should not cause alarm.
"This trend is not of major concern over the short term," he said in another statement posted on the bank's Web site.
Tehran's largesse, the IMF said, meant the fiscal deficit could expand to 1.4 percent of GDP in the year to March 2005 from 0.2 percent in the previous year.
"All of the increase in oil revenue due to higher oil prices will be used by the budget... non-oil revenue and privatisation receipts seem to be overestimated," it said.
The Washington-based organisation exhorted Iran to phase out spending 10 percent of its GDP on subsidising fuel, which fetches a humble 10 cents per litre at the pumps.
The report also urged Iran to curb credit to the rapidly growing private sector and limit banks' access to the central bank's overdraft facility.
It also called for more zealous supervision of the financial sector. Many private Iranian banks are offering interest rates on savings well above central bank guidelines.
However, the IMF also called for the implementation of the package of liberalising reforms in the five-year plan that conservative parliamentarians are now largely unravelling.
"The mission ... calls for its steadfast implementation," the IMF said.
Lawmakers this month voted out key articles opening up the banking and energy sectors to much-needed privatisation and foreign investment.
http://www.reuters.com/newsSearchResultsHome.jhtml?query=Iran&qtype=a&x=7&y=13
TEHRAN, Aug 24 (AFP) - Iraqi Vice President Ibrahim al-Jafari made a surprise visit to Iran on Tuesday to meet officials of the Islamic republic, state television announced.
Jafari held talks with President Mohammad Khatami during his impromptu visit, which had not been announced by either side, the TV said, showing pictures of Jafari in the northeastern Shiite holy city of Mashhad.
The visit came at a time when both sides are trying to mend fences after a certain tension in the past two weeks.
Iraqi officials have joined the Americans in accusing Iran of getting involved in the Shiite rebellion and even of arming rebels. Shiites are the majority of the population in both neighbouring countries.
The press has made much of the arrests and apparent kidnapping of Iranians in Iraq.
The Baghdad bureau chief of the Iranian news agency, IRNA, was arrested along with two of his staff on August 9 and an Iranian diplomat disappeared on the road between Baghdad and Karbala. Tehran warned the interim government that it holds them responsible for the safety of all four men.
No date has yet been set for a visit to Tehran by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who has been officially invited by Iran.
Baghdad rejected calls by Tehran on Tuesday for an emergency regional summit to discuss the fighting in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, which is a major Iranian preoccupation.
"It is a domestic matter which must be solved in keeping with the law and sovereignty of the state. That is why Iraq will not join any attempt to internationalise the matter," said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.
Armed confrontation, Sunday night, on the streets of Tehran
IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency)
According to witnesses and other reliable sources, on Sunday night [August
22], around 11:45, several members of security forces clashed with
unidentified armed persons on Piruzi Avenue--Coca cola intersection-in the
eastern part of the capital.
Shortly after this confrontation a witness present on the scene told IRNA
by telephone: "The unknown armed individuals, probably three or four in
number, got away with a car." This witness added: "Fierce gunfire between
the security forces and these individuals lasted for some minutes," adding
that "according to the locals two members of the security forces were
injured." He added, "A couple riding a motorcycle were injured in the
crossfire.".
Minutes before, IRNA's reporter contacted the information desk of the
110th precinct for more details about the incident. Someone who did not
identify himself confirmed the occurrence of the clash but did not give
any details.
According to witnesses, minutes after the confrontation several cars and
more security forces were on the scene. Also, after hearing the gunfire
tens of local residents gathered in the coca cola intersection but
eventually left the scene.
http://web.peykeiran.com/net_iran/irnewsbody.aspx?ID=17969
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