New Poll out of CO - 47-47 Tie -(SUSA) -

RCP ^ | TMP

[POA2]

New SUSA poll shows CO a dead heat - 47-47 - (this is not good - another 2000 GWB State that is heading toward the toss-up catagory) -

Also new poll out of NV shows GWB up 49-46 -

And 2 other polls out of MI and PA that both show Kerry up by 4pts or more -

MI poll is 46-42 for Kerry (Strategic Vision)

PA poll shows Kerry 47-42 (Quinn) - PA has to now be considered solid Kerry - He has lead in the past 11 straight polls and in 20 of the past 22 polls out of PA -

This is getting late - GWB has to make a move now - an incumbent will not surge late and win - (past Sept 15th)

All these polls can be found on realclearpolitics site .

[Sam Spade]

Easy. Look at the internals of the poll here, specifically on page 10 of the survey. Get out the calculator and do the math on the LV. This is the total you come up with.

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MO040818presgovsen.pdf

[HitmanLV]

There will be no Bush landslide, regardless of what many Freepers think.

Bush will win with a comfy 300-325 Electoral Votes, but not many more.

Anyone who thinks he will do better is in fantasyland.

[HitmanLV]

The union will perservere if Kerry wins. No need to get suicidal.

[HitmanLV]

I do think the DUI cost Bush some votes - it wasn't notable in states he won by a decent margin, but it probably did cost him a few of those states he lost narrowly.

[Jeff Chandler]

Patience, grasshopper.

[Texasforever]

SO FAR, Bush has done not a single blessed thing he needs to do to win,

So give us your list.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I see what you mean. Dividing the 296 Bush likely voters by 622 (the number of likely voters polled) gives you 47.59% for Bush, and dividing the 289 Kerry likely voters by 622 gives you 46.46%, which is rounded up for a 48%-46% Bush lead. However, since "likely voters" are the sum of "certain voters" and "probable voters," it appears that the Kerry likely voters were undercounted by 1, since 260 certain voters and 30 probable voters were for Kerry; there also appears to be an undercount of 1 in the sum of overall certain and probable voters, which should be 623. If the raw data for certain and probable voters, and not their sums, are correct, then Bush got 47.51% of likely voters and Kerry got 46.55% of likely voters, which would be rounded up to a 48%-47% lead for President Bush. You got a 48%-46% lead for Bush by counting only 287 likely voters for Kerry (as opposed to 290 or 289); where did you get that number?

BTW, you mistakenly gave the link to the Missouri poll; the Colorado poll is at http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/CO040817pressen.pdf

[Sam Spade]

You're right on that. Don't know the reason why I posted the 287 figure for Kerry, considering it's right there on the page as 289. But you're right on the missing voter.

The figures should add up to 623 making it

Bush 296 / 623 => 47.51% (48%)
Kerry 290 / 623 => 46.55% (47%)

Anyway, so this means that SUSA just had their topine numbers switched with regards to the two races.

Nonetheless, both as of right now are in a statistical tie.