Posted on 08/15/2004 1:43:18 PM PDT by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
HARRISBURG - More Pennsylvania voters believe U.S. Sen. John Kerry has a better plan than President Bush to strengthen the nation's economy, which ranks as voters' No. 1 issue, according to a new statewide poll.
The Massachusetts Democrat holds an 11-point lead over Bush on the economy, 51 to 40 percent.
Kerry's lead is bigger regarding job creation and lowering the cost of health care, the poll reveals.
Bush holds a slight edge on having the better plan to respond to the threat of terror, 48 to 44 percent. The candidates are nearly even on who has the best plan to deal with Iraq, with Kerry leading 46 to 45 percent.
Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV 16, the poll surveyed 593 registered voters across the state on Aug. 6. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
The poll results could indicate that Pennsylvania isn't as much of a swing state as many political watchers would believe, says Len Champney, chairman of the University of Scranton political science department.
"The national pundits have been referring to Pennsylvania as a toss-up state, and I'm not sure that it is. I think Pennsylvania looks very good for John Kerry."
Kerry campaign spokesman Mark Nevins said: "I think that this is a validation of the positive approach we've taken on the issues, about creating jobs, about the economy and about ending outsourcing. I think these results are a rejection of the Bush campaign's strategy of negativity and attack, rather than having their own agenda."
However, Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said: "What this shows is that Americans don't know a whole lot about the record of John Kerry. Kerry has a senate record of higher taxes and more regulation. ... That's clearly something that is not going to resonate with voters.
"There are a lot of polls out there that show people don't know John Kerry's record. They don't know because he doesn't talk about it. And he doesn't talk about it because it's a dismal record."
Both campaigns acknowledge the economy is a top issue for Pennsylvania voters.
The poll shows 71 percent of voters believe the economy is very important and 23 percent believe it's somewhat important.
The threat of terror, health-care costs and handling of Iraq were reported as very important issues by 60 percent of voters; 58 percent of voters called job creation very important.
"Unless there is some dramatically good news on the economy, Bush is going to be the underdog," said Robert J. Bresler, professor emeritus of public policy at Penn State Harrisburg. "Or, he needs some event on Iraq or the war on terrorism that catapults that issue over the economy."
The Bush campaign has focused much of its advertising blitz in Pennsylvania on the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism, and Kerry has hammered more on economic issues. Both campaigns say they'll continue to press those issues leading up to the Nov. 2 election.
Although voters appear to be split on which candidate has the best plans for terrorism and Iraq, Nevins said that's a better showing for Kerry than would be expected for a challenger during wartime.
"I think these numbers indicate a lot of public discomfort and disapproval of George Bush's war on terror and war in Iraq. For a challenger to be basically tied with an incumbent president on these issues is almost unheard of."
status of Senate races as of today.
PA- Stays D
I knew we could count on you to give us the latest disastrous poll #s.
What are you going to do about this situation?
lol.....
My bad.
PA stays R
Yup, it looks like we are done in PA.
What do you expect from a state who's baseball team has Gay Day's...... ????????
2,281,127 -2,485,967
Thats 200,000 out of roughly 5 million or about 50%-46% after taking out Buchanan and Nader.
Bush will pick up more votes than he did in 2000 and Kerry will get less votes than Gore did.
Looks to me like the crooks in Philadelphia will have to work late into the night to steal this one.
Bush may lose PA again, but only because the rats will cheat.
He could very well win.
Unless he's thinking Specter is D. The RINO.
There are three things for the Republicans to consider regarding Pennsylvania.
First, it's a big and expensive state to contest. If the prospects are more favorable in Wisconsin and Iowa, and it's a long shot in Pennsylvania, you've got to focus your money where it can more good.
Second, is the possibility that New Jersey is in play. If New Jersey is in play, advertizing in the Philly market covers two battleground states. Otherwise, advertizing in the Philly market is not very efficient.
Third, if the Republicans contest Pennsylvania, the Senate race may get more partisan, and there may be fewer ticket splitters. This could put Specter's seat into play. If Pennsylvania is a long-shot, there are better prospects elsewhere, New Jersey isn't in play, why increase party awareness in this state, when Specter is trying to appeal to ticket-splitters.
Regarding your Senate predictions, I think you are forecasting a net Republican pick-up of 1 seat (i.e., +GA +SC -IL = +1), with toss-up possibilities for both sides that basically cancel out (i.e., AK, CO, FL, LA, OK and SD). This means you are forecasting a Senate that is 52-48 (let's face it, Jeffords is an IINO, "independent in name only"), not 51-49.
Notice that Bush is either competitive or favored to win in each of the six toss-up states. This means that, with any up-move by Bush nationally, the Republicans could sweep all of them.
Just curious why you assume W will get more votes in PA in 04 than he did in 2000?
I see W getting more votes than in 2000 for the simple reason that a lot of Gore voters will vote GOP this time around because Kerry is a loser in the WOT, while W has done nothing in his term that would cause him to lose the support of the 2.28 million that voted for him in 2000.
The number to watch is how many undecided voters that went with Gore last time will go with W this time.
Do not worry KQQL will hold the fort for posting the doom and gloom polls.
Did you notice that KQQL thinks so much of himself. He is telling us that he has a good record of calling races.
Both campaigns acknowledge the economy is a top issue for Pennsylvania voters.
It will be the top issue across the country. We're sick of losing our livable wage jobs. We're sick of low paying replacement jobs. We're sick of illegal cheap labor that we have to subsidize. We're sick of legal cheap labor imported to take the few decent pay jobs that remain.
I'll be voting Third Party for President. I'll be voting for only two of my Republican reps in the election...they actually get it. The rest will be third party candidates.
No more, Jorge. No more. It's time we held them accountable and remind them they work for us, not business lobbies.
"I think these numbers indicate a lot of public discomfort
Discomfort? It that what they call it when they destroy lives?
JOBS for AMERICANS will be the number 1 issue across the country no matter how they try to spin it. Livable wage JOBS.
Hazleton hates Bush.
today I noted while out shopping that the Maryland malls' parking lots were absolutely FULL. People spending their money means the economy is going just fine.
Yep. It's called the back to school spike. Remember that? The haves have alot more, also. Here in Vegas even WalMart and Target are suffering while the top end stores are doing fine. I assure you it isn't because all of us have become rich in the Bush economy.
yup and ping
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