Posted on 08/15/2004 1:43:18 PM PDT by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
HARRISBURG - More Pennsylvania voters believe U.S. Sen. John Kerry has a better plan than President Bush to strengthen the nation's economy, which ranks as voters' No. 1 issue, according to a new statewide poll.
The Massachusetts Democrat holds an 11-point lead over Bush on the economy, 51 to 40 percent.
Kerry's lead is bigger regarding job creation and lowering the cost of health care, the poll reveals.
Bush holds a slight edge on having the better plan to respond to the threat of terror, 48 to 44 percent. The candidates are nearly even on who has the best plan to deal with Iraq, with Kerry leading 46 to 45 percent.
Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV 16, the poll surveyed 593 registered voters across the state on Aug. 6. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
The poll results could indicate that Pennsylvania isn't as much of a swing state as many political watchers would believe, says Len Champney, chairman of the University of Scranton political science department.
"The national pundits have been referring to Pennsylvania as a toss-up state, and I'm not sure that it is. I think Pennsylvania looks very good for John Kerry."
Kerry campaign spokesman Mark Nevins said: "I think that this is a validation of the positive approach we've taken on the issues, about creating jobs, about the economy and about ending outsourcing. I think these results are a rejection of the Bush campaign's strategy of negativity and attack, rather than having their own agenda."
However, Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said: "What this shows is that Americans don't know a whole lot about the record of John Kerry. Kerry has a senate record of higher taxes and more regulation. ... That's clearly something that is not going to resonate with voters.
"There are a lot of polls out there that show people don't know John Kerry's record. They don't know because he doesn't talk about it. And he doesn't talk about it because it's a dismal record."
Both campaigns acknowledge the economy is a top issue for Pennsylvania voters.
The poll shows 71 percent of voters believe the economy is very important and 23 percent believe it's somewhat important.
The threat of terror, health-care costs and handling of Iraq were reported as very important issues by 60 percent of voters; 58 percent of voters called job creation very important.
"Unless there is some dramatically good news on the economy, Bush is going to be the underdog," said Robert J. Bresler, professor emeritus of public policy at Penn State Harrisburg. "Or, he needs some event on Iraq or the war on terrorism that catapults that issue over the economy."
The Bush campaign has focused much of its advertising blitz in Pennsylvania on the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism, and Kerry has hammered more on economic issues. Both campaigns say they'll continue to press those issues leading up to the Nov. 2 election.
Although voters appear to be split on which candidate has the best plans for terrorism and Iraq, Nevins said that's a better showing for Kerry than would be expected for a challenger during wartime.
"I think these numbers indicate a lot of public discomfort and disapproval of George Bush's war on terror and war in Iraq. For a challenger to be basically tied with an incumbent president on these issues is almost unheard of."
I'm not spreading doom and gloom; I'm just concerned that PA is slipping out of reach. We don't need PA to win anyway
Some people love to live in FANTASY HERE.
PA might not be in play ...if the trend continues towards KERRY.
Well like I said, I will wait until after the Pubbie convention.
All these polls are noise, IMO. I went through this same thing in 2000 and promised not to go into panic or estatic mode over one poll.
KQQL is known for doom and gloom and, for a lack of a better term, arrogant prognostications.
If it is, this miserable puppy of
a poll doesn't prove it to me.
kerry is promising to re-open the coal mines.
Unfortunately most of the American people are too lazy to discern the truth regarding frauds like Kerry. They knew Clinton was a liar and still voted him into office.
What? Not taking much stock in a 9 day old poll is "fantasy".
Sorry that you are getting miffed that some don't agree with your self-proclaimed omnipotent poll wisdom.
Without winning BIG in Philly and Pittsburgh, the Democrats have a hard time winning Pennsylvania.
If the GOP wants to have the slightest chance in Pennsylvania this November, they will hire poll watchers to literally stand in each voting precinct in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to make sure the Dems don't "stuff" the ballot in the strong Democrat (union controlled or strong minority) precincts where there are no credible Republican counterparts to even check the voting process.
For example, if there are 123 people registered to vote on a certain block, there will be 123 guaranteed votes cast for whichever candidate the Dem machine wants the votes cast for.
Without a GOP poll watcher, all it takes to vote is a warm body (no ID) to walk in and pull the lever.
In some precincts, the voting place is literally a renovated basement inside someone's rowhome, or maybe a local business which has found favor with the political machine.
Bottom line: If Carl Rove or the GOP powers-that-be want to have a chance, they will find a way to doublecheck voting in the inner city.
I believe the GOP would gain at least 4-percent if they could eliminate fraud.
I've already written Rove twice suggesting that very thing, but I don't know if it will do any good.
KQQL is known for doom and gloom and, for a lack of a better term, arrogant prognostications.
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YEA RIGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here is what I think.
House GOP 229 Dem 205 IND 1
Senate GOP 51 Dem 48 IND 1
GOV 25-25 a tie..
There is a 50% chance LA goes to a runoff.
Zogby is just catching up to Harris /other state polls...
164 posted on 11/04/2002 7:23:34 PM PST by KQQL
Problem is if the Reps go into those precincts and attempt to keep an eye on what's going on there, we will be accused of trying to intimidate voters. We lose anyway you slice it.
staus of Senate races as of today.
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AK - Toss up
IL- D pick up
GA- R pick up
NC - Stays D
SC- R pick up
PA- Stays D
OK- Stays R
CO- Toss UP
LA- Adavantage D in a run off . Adavantage R in no Run off.
FL- Toss UP
SD- Toss Up to Slight leans D
Whatever, I am not going to panic or promote a nine day old poll as the end of the world.
Problem with PA is that Philly turnout will be 105% of reg voters. In 2000 it was 100% of reg voters
of course you will say whatever, because I just proved your crap about me as false in post #70
(KQQL is known for doom and gloom and, for a lack of a better term, arrogant prognostications)
Dales Composite Poll shows Bush trailing Kerry 187-255 (OH, FL, NH, PA all for Kerry?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/1192122/posts?page=2
I will wait till after the Pubbie Convention.
Kerry's lead is bigger regarding job creation and lowering the cost of health care, the poll reveals.
The dumbing down of America has been very successful. They don't understand that Greenspan is the one with the most influence on the economy. What can sKerry do about job creation? Create more government jobs. What can he do to lower the cost of healthcare, get the government more involved?
The good news is that this should be Kerry's high-water mark. The GOP convention will likely give W a bounce that will hopefully translate into a national lead he does not relinquish.
If we're still trailing after our convention, then I'll be worried.
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