Posted on 08/15/2004 1:43:18 PM PDT by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
HARRISBURG - More Pennsylvania voters believe U.S. Sen. John Kerry has a better plan than President Bush to strengthen the nation's economy, which ranks as voters' No. 1 issue, according to a new statewide poll.
The Massachusetts Democrat holds an 11-point lead over Bush on the economy, 51 to 40 percent.
Kerry's lead is bigger regarding job creation and lowering the cost of health care, the poll reveals.
Bush holds a slight edge on having the better plan to respond to the threat of terror, 48 to 44 percent. The candidates are nearly even on who has the best plan to deal with Iraq, with Kerry leading 46 to 45 percent.
Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV 16, the poll surveyed 593 registered voters across the state on Aug. 6. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
The poll results could indicate that Pennsylvania isn't as much of a swing state as many political watchers would believe, says Len Champney, chairman of the University of Scranton political science department.
"The national pundits have been referring to Pennsylvania as a toss-up state, and I'm not sure that it is. I think Pennsylvania looks very good for John Kerry."
Kerry campaign spokesman Mark Nevins said: "I think that this is a validation of the positive approach we've taken on the issues, about creating jobs, about the economy and about ending outsourcing. I think these results are a rejection of the Bush campaign's strategy of negativity and attack, rather than having their own agenda."
However, Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said: "What this shows is that Americans don't know a whole lot about the record of John Kerry. Kerry has a senate record of higher taxes and more regulation. ... That's clearly something that is not going to resonate with voters.
"There are a lot of polls out there that show people don't know John Kerry's record. They don't know because he doesn't talk about it. And he doesn't talk about it because it's a dismal record."
Both campaigns acknowledge the economy is a top issue for Pennsylvania voters.
The poll shows 71 percent of voters believe the economy is very important and 23 percent believe it's somewhat important.
The threat of terror, health-care costs and handling of Iraq were reported as very important issues by 60 percent of voters; 58 percent of voters called job creation very important.
"Unless there is some dramatically good news on the economy, Bush is going to be the underdog," said Robert J. Bresler, professor emeritus of public policy at Penn State Harrisburg. "Or, he needs some event on Iraq or the war on terrorism that catapults that issue over the economy."
The Bush campaign has focused much of its advertising blitz in Pennsylvania on the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism, and Kerry has hammered more on economic issues. Both campaigns say they'll continue to press those issues leading up to the Nov. 2 election.
Although voters appear to be split on which candidate has the best plans for terrorism and Iraq, Nevins said that's a better showing for Kerry than would be expected for a challenger during wartime.
"I think these numbers indicate a lot of public discomfort and disapproval of George Bush's war on terror and war in Iraq. For a challenger to be basically tied with an incumbent president on these issues is almost unheard of."
Not all pollsters are the same and not all pollsters are
UNRELIABLE>
few are good.
Any state with huge social problems like philly will be leaning Kerry.....Its the handouts and the TAX THE RICH slogans that gets em everytime.
Has a Democrat ever had a good plan for the economy? Can anyone cite an example for me? I don't mean someone who just happened to be in office when the economy improved, like Klintoon. I mean a Dem who actually DID something to improve it.
KQQL --
"Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV 16, the poll surveyed 593 registered voters across the state on Aug. 6."
Why is SUSA using RV? I thought they polled only LV.... this poll is odd, somehow. Survey USA usually polls only likely voters.
SHOVE IT!
How can a poll of less than 600 people run by the Democrats be anything but biased. This isn't even worth mentioning.
So it's a credible poll result,
huh, to claim Kerry leads in PA
by 12 pts.???
???
She questioned this one poll, not
all polls by this pollster.
Likley voters come from RV
YES
It was credible.
Poll Results - PA (08/06)
Back to polls Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania for the presidential race. Results are based on telephone interviews with 801 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and conducted August 2-4, 2004. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?
Bush—Cheney 43%
Kerry—Edwards 51%
Undecided 6%
2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo?
Bush—Cheney 43%
Kerry—Edwards 48%
Nader—Camejo 2%
Undecided 7%
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania080604.htm
Poll Results - PA (08/06)
Back to polls Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania for the presidential race. Results are based on telephone interviews with 801 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and conducted August 2-4, 2004. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?
Bush—Cheney 43%
Kerry—Edwards 51%
Undecided 6%
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania080604.htm
Exactly. There is a reason they kept it out.
July 30-August 2 July 31-August 3 Release: 08/06
GA MI WI IA OH MN FL PA
Cheney 48% 47% 47% 45% 46% 44% 47% 44%
Edwards 39% 39% 33% 40% 38% 40% 39% 38%
Undecided 13% 14% 20% 15% 16% 16% 14% 18%
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/state.htm
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It's always befuddled me. |
PA is heavily Democratic in Pittsburgh & Philadelphia (which makes Chicago look amateurish) and everything in between is (ahem) "conservative".
Yet, a Dem like Ed Rendell (a FOB, no less) gets elected governor, raises taxes, much to the ire of the whole state, and still manages to deliver presidential elections to the democrats.
Can you spell RINO???? <body lang="EN-US" style="tab-interval: .5in"
SURVEYUSA IS NOT NOT A BOGUS POLLSTER.
W is behind in PA...and that;s a FACT.
My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.8 from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.
So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.
W/O Nader
Bush 48.3%
Kerry 50.6
Others 1.1
Bush 48.3
Kerry 49.5
Nader 1.3
Others 0.7
MOE+/-1%
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