Tropical Storm Earl Forms Near the Lesser Antilles Hurricane Danielle Over the Far Eastern Atlantic

WECT TV Wilmington NC ^ | Aug. 14, 2004 | WECT TV Wilmington NC

[walford]

Tropical Storm Earl Forms Near the Lesser Antilles

TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

...EARL CONTINUING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA.  INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  55.8 WEST OR ABOUT  300 MILES... 480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DETERIORATING TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EARL.

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Hurricane Danielle Over the Far Eastern Atlantic

HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

...DANIELLE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES... 605 KM... WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[TaxRelief]

A hurricanes path is determined by (a) influences from the jet stream, (b) surface temperatures, (c) wind strength and (d) barometric pressure. In this case Charley followed the warm water gradients almost precisely. (He circled the warmest water pool.) A Stationary front was also significant.

[TaxRelief]

When a storm is weak enough it will be controlled by the jet stream.

[spoiler2]

Thanks for the analysis.

The jet stream has pulled back to mid-continent, but if it swings down during Earl's final approach, it might again serve for a surprise twist.

[Strategerist]

When a storm is weak enough it will be controlled by the jet stream.
A trough in the Jet Stream, strong enough, will control ANY storm, even a Cat 5. Actually it's weak storms least likely to have their movement affected by a jet-stream trough; they aren't "tall" so the low-level easterly flow controls their movement.

[Strategerist]

Surface temperature of water has absolutely no influence on the track of a hurricane at all (except in the secondary sense that the intensity of a storm will affect its track somewhat, and intensity is partially dependent on SSTs.)

They don't move TOWARD warm water or anything.

[snapperjk]

spoiler2, yes. I agree. On Thursday my wife said look at that 'thing' in the upper left of the TV screen (it was the cold front slipping along the JS). Wife said the storm is going to turn east before it gets near Tampa, which it did. But, my wife is a nurse, not a meteorologist.
Anyway, the property damage is tremendous but thanks to who/whatever you believe in, the death toll is amazingly low. Amen.