Charley's Force Took Experts by Surprise (NOAA Covering It's Behind...)

AP ^ | 08/14/2004 | SnapperJK

[snapperjk]

Aug 14, 6:41 PM (ET)

By MARCIA DUNN

Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity - even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.

"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.

"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."

[jamaly]

Thanks for the information. We live in St. Charles Parish, so we have mandatory evacuations earlier than most. I didn't realize the levees were only safe up to a category 2. My husband can't usually evacuate due to his job either; but, there is no way I am staying around. During the May 8, 1995 flood we had alligators and smake swimming down our street. Our house didn't take on water; but, it was literally lapping at our foundation. I hope I never live to see a bad hurricane in our area.

Thanks for your hard work. I know it can't be easy.

[dfwgator]

Won't stop the lawyers from trying to find somebody to sue.

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Gabz,

Have a nasty steak in you, don't you?


Not actually. I even help little old ladies cross the street sometimes.

But what chaps my @ss is the son-to-appear "Media Parade" that will blame everyone, from both Bushs on down, for the stupidity cuased by other people.

I really don't care for the authoritarianro traffic-ticket brigades (Local Police) who relish the idea of driving through Residential Neighborhoods with their MANDATORY evacuation orders (a la Barney Fife), like they did in Indian Rocks Beach (extreme west of Tampa).

But ... they did their job ... and any one who might have stayed, and then died, has ONLY themselves to blame.


Now about the elderly "Seasoned Citizens". I'm sick of most of them.

They whine (and get) FREE prescription drugs, while driving arund their BMWs and Cadillacs, murdering local families because the elderly are too INCOMPETENT to drive automobiles.

Then they @itch and complain about every little inconvenience. Have YOU ever been to a grocery store Produce Department AFTER a bus load of elderly "Seasoned Citizens" have literally trashed the place ? It's disgusting.


"Real Floridians" know how to vote at a ballot box (even if they're democrats, don't call this state "FLA-RA-DA", and RESPECT alligators, sharks, and hurricanes.



The "trailer park" town that was wiped out ?

Average age is 70 years old. That says it all. Just a bunch of stupid elderly AARP medicade-junkies living in flimsey house trailers, driving and killing younger folks and familis off the highways during the rest of the year.



Patton@Bastogne


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[Doohickey]

And you expected it to go to Tampa and - what? - stop?

[Gabz]

Hopefully you will remember your attitude regarding the elderly when you yourself are amongst them.

BTW all of my friends in Florida are "Real Floridians" having been born there, as opposed to my family that has only been there for 30+ years.

[bert]

Who didn't know that?.....

The nattering presstitutes are an ignorant lot and when they begin to babble the ignorance outs. The "lot" of people believe the omnicious pressies.

[GatorGirl]

Give me a break, this is Mother Nature we're talking about.

Hurricane warnings were issued for the entire west coast of Florida. Evacuations at least to level one should have been taking place all up and down the coast.

Tampa is the major population center on the coast, so it's understandable that the focus was on us. But evacuation orders had been issued for Charlotte and Lee counties.

No one can predict whether a storm will strengthen (Charley), weaken (Lilly), or completely change course (Floyd). Just take precautions no matter what, a little hard work and preparation can't hurt, and it may just save your life.

I'm holding onto my "stuff" not needed for Charley for Earl, just in case. He seems to be on exactly the same course as Charley.

[PogySailor]

Here is a snippet from the 5:00 AM bulletin from Friday morning. Looks to me like they pretty much told anyone actually reading them that the thing could hit anywhere along the west coast of FL and even covers the east coast from Coco Beach, almost up to Savannah, GA with a Tropical Storm warning:

HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004


...HURRICANE CHARLEY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
-- snip --
AT 5 AM...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

[BOOTSTICK]

Then why was the probability track chart still showing Pinellas county and Tampa bay as the most likely strike point? The point being the probability chart used by the TV folk, simply did not match the probability numbers at the N.H.C. and NOAA.