Posted on 08/13/2004 6:58:03 PM PDT by Roscoe Karns
WASHINGTON (AP) - Once Hurricane Charley is gone from Florida, it's a safe bet President Bush will sweep in. Natural calamities present political opportunity, and many crucial electoral votes are in the path of Charley's howling winds.
President Bush declared a major disaster in Florida on Friday, ordering federal aid for the recovery effort just two hours after Charley hit the mainland.
Officials are loath to ascribe campaign motives to emergency response, but politics infuses everything this close to an election. No more so than in the state that handed Bush the presidency.
"This provides both opportunities and real dangers for the president," said Dario Moreno, a Florida International University political scientist.
Presidents are measured by the aid and sympathy that follow a big hit from nature, and Moreno said Bush stands to gain as long as he treats the emergency as more than a chance to roll up his sleeves and clear a bit of rubble for the cameras.
"If he looks like he's doing this for a photo opportunity, it's going to backfire on him," he said. "He has to make sure FEMA and the emergency aid responders are working around the clock and without a hitch."
With 145-mph winds, the hurricane bore down not only on the scene-stealing state of the last election, but one of the most politically dynamic parts of it - the western and central counties where both parties are in heated competition for the tens of thousands of non-Cuban Hispanics who have moved there since 2000. Florida offers 27 electoral votes, the fourth-biggest prize.
For Bush, lessons of disaster politics are close to home.
His father's political advisers were caught flat-footed at a similar point of the campaign cycle - August 1992 - when Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc in Florida. Thousands went without shelter and other necessities for days while the magnitude of the storm slowly sank in for the federal government.
The first President Bush was roundly criticized for overseeing a by-the-formula response to extraordinary needs. He visited the area, but his administration declined an initial appeal to send a military engineering brigade and other troops for the relief effort and stumbled over disaster aid.
Barring an obviously inept performance from the White House, natural disasters inoculate presidents from campaign criticism for a time because opponents are wary of second-guessing the nation's leader in a crisis and can't be seen as trying to capitalize on people's misfortune.
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, for example, won't let himself be seen as begrudging Floridians federal relief dollars no matter how generous, analysts say.
"He can't accuse the president of politicizing a tragedy," said Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a University of Pennsylvania presidential campaign scholar. "Kerry is best to be silent on the issue."
In 1992, Democratic candidate Bill Clinton toured Andrew's aftermath but carefully avoided jabbing at his opponent over the halting response. And when Washington rebounded with promises of massive aid, his campaign was mum.
Clinton's on-the-scene empathy after the Oklahoma City bombing moved people during a low point in his presidency.
The timing of this storm is rather suspicious.
Do you think Al Quaeda was behind it? :-)
Speaking of terrorists, I kinda wish Gitmo would catch a category 5. Our soldiers would be just fine, but it would scare the hell out of the islamderthals.
Chrissie Matthews wants to ask the storm who it plans to vote for.
Of course the Dims are behind it ... we had to cancel our FReep in Wilmington, NC, this weekend. It was going to be BIG!
But on the subject, I'm just disgusted that anyone could write this. Our Founders are rolling over in their graves at the idea that the President of the United States is somehow responsible for "taking care" of people after a hurricane! (!!!!)
How about eliminating Federal disaster aid and flood insurance? Then people would move inland, unless they wanted to personally carry the insurance costs or rebuilding costs of living on the coast.
H W Bush really screwed it up when he visited Miami post Andrew.
He tied up an already screwed up major road(US 1/South Dixie Highway), and about pissed everyone off in South Dade.
It did not win him any votes.
</sarcasm>
You know, I turned off the sarcasm, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised when the dems actually say that the President is using the losses suffered in the storm for political gain. Now that I am thinking about it, I am certain that we will hear the criticism the moment AF1 touches down anywhere in Florida.
Funny, I haven't heard it (yet), but Bush was in Panama City a day before Bonnie passed through. I still won't be surprised to hear that "connection" somehow mentioned on DU or mouthed by a Kerry sycophant. It is really just a matter of time.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I was in Panama City Beach at the time the President visited. There was a 3 day build-up in the local media (all pretty favorable) and the town was piped up for the visit. We even cruised by the area where the President was speaking that day (just off of the bay).
Here's some interesting facts that you only seem to get when you are "on the ground":
1. The original attendance expected: 3,500
2. The revised attendace expected: 5,000
3. The re-revised attendance expected: 8,500
4. The re-re-revised attendance expected: 10,000
5. Last estimate I heard of actual attendance: about 15,000.
Each day the expected attendance grew, and grew, and grew. I'm telling you the crowds that the President is drawing is indicative of the ground swell of support for the President, despite what the polls are saying.
Just today, I was reading about the massive crowds that (S)Kerry was drawing in Oregon (a lock for Kerry). I saw the pics and there were about 200 people gathered around what looked to be a cul-de-sac, none of whom looked very excited to be there. Then, I read the story that a legit 1,500 showed up at the President's event in Oregon (same day).
Something just doesn't square about the so-called "momentum" that the media (FOX News included) is talking about at these Kerry rallies. P.S. Marine One flew right by our 7th floor condo we were staying in. Don't know if the Prez was in or not, but threw up the salute anyway!
Who says politics infuses a natural disaster? Oh, right, the AP.
You people are truly sick.
And what is this about Florida handing Bush the election? I thought the Supreme Court did that. :-D
African nations get faster aid that that in an extreme emergency.
Bush Sr. was rightly criticized.
Over 15,000 people waited in line for hours in 115 degree weather in Phoenix to see W.
I bet that Kerry has plans to beat Bush to Florida to show that he cares more.
Yes, why does AP bring it up now? Can't they wait to see what damage it does? What other story are they trying to overshadow? Did AP know Charley before he showed up in Florida? If not, why are they on a first name basis?
That's very impressive. Dry heat or not... 8^). Seriously though, it is not uncommon for the Florida events to be equally (more?) miserable (depending on where you fall on the humid heat vs. dry heat debate) and still draw incredible crowds.
Meanwhile...lil' Johnny Edward's draw in Orlando a week (or so) ago: 12! (or something like that, it was pathetic)
Just looking at today's Gallup poll that shows Bush 50 - Kerry 47. I''m really starting to believe the theory that Gallup and all the Kerry media allies at really playing with the margin of error (MOE) to make it look better. The old "+/- 3 on either side to keep it close" trick. If you believe that theory, then the race is more like Bush 53 - Kerry 44; or Bush 52 - Kerry 45. That seems to be more reasonable given the crowd assessment. But, if the partisan media didn't mess with the MOE, then Kerry would have no mo' (as in Uncle Mo', as in momentum).
We'll see how it shapes up, but I'm getting more and more positive about how the campaign is shaping up, especially going into the GOP convention.
And, I have good reason why to suspect that: just today Terry McAwful is out there, toting the old "convention is going to be a shame/convention is a circus" line...that must mean we are in good shape to do serious damage to the McAwful and crew.
Rove leaked news of the hurricane to Robert Novak.
What do you want to be he won't be?
Fingers moving too fast...
Wasn't it benevolent of God to provide this hurricane for Bush! And He even steered it so it hit the state where Bush needed electoral votes and his brother was Governor so he could ask for help early. Now we know why Bush prays, it's so God will send circumstances that cause billions in destruction but benefit him politically. (end/sarcasm)
The Dems are downright paranoid and delusional these days.
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