Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
LOL. No one understands my screenname, it includes all my vitals. :) NW CT Wx. I guess "wx" is something only understood in certain circles.
Oh my; as if this isn't bad enough.
What did the guy say in response?
The Gray Man of Pawleys Island
http://www.state.sc.us/scdah/grayman.htm
He began to berate the on-air meteorologist for a "wrong" forecast...keep in mind hurricane warnings had been in place for about 29 hours prior to landfall in the Ft. Myers/Pt. Charlotte area. He proceeded to blame the forecasters for deaths, etc. They cut him off soon after that.
I can say, though, that I am truly upset right now...both emotionally and professionally, about what may have occurred on the SW FL coast. However, if I was in a hurricane warning area..on the coast..with a well organized storm heading in my direction...no matter its current intensity...I would get out. But, unfortunately, this is not often well conveyed by the broadcast media...they focus entirely too much on the "precise" area where the storm is forecast to make landfall.
Wxdawg, thank you for the work that you do. And thank you for your first post and the explanation.
I was in the Crossing at the time. Luckily we got away with a torn up roof and a few broken windows.
So what happened with Audrey? Slacked off in praying then?
Posted by JellyJam to HipShot
On News/Activism 08/13/2004 8:38:41 PM PDT · 1,650 of 1,697
UPDATE:
CHARLOTTE COUNTY — Hurricane Charley cut a wide path of destruction across both shores of Charlotte Harbor Friday, flattening houses and businesses like a wrecking ball and throwing others into the sea.
Charley’s unexpected 145 mph winds destroyed entire neighborhoods on both sides of the Peace River. It threw emergency officials into chaos, forcing them to evacuate their own command center.
Up to 50 people brought to Charlotte Regional Medical Center with injuries, according to hospital CEO. Injured were being airlifted to area hospitals because Charlotte hospitals sustained heavy damage.
Authorities had no confirmed counts of wounded. They had only begun to tally the damage on Friday night. Cell phones were virtually useless.
_________________________
Since homes were thrown into the sea, I'd expect them to wash up on the shore, wouldn't you?
Pawley's Island is some high-dollar real estate these days. I remember slumming there with some friends back in '83 when I couldn't afford a place in Myrtle Beach
The only Galveston Island hurricane I am familiar with happened more than 100 years ago . . . .
It will probably intensify some (Cat 2, or so).
I think I mentioned it before, sustained windspeeds will only be part of the factor as it screams Northeast. Most storms (even weaker ones) that speed up the coast, like this is forecast to do, cause considerable damage.
One of the best tools to being a local meteorologist is to have lived in the area for many, many years. That way you get to know the local climatology...and get a "feel" for the way things have happened in the past...and how they may well do so in the future. Nash Roberts is a good example...as is Gary England in the tornado alley of central OK.
Is now a good time to talk about all the fossils that have been churned up along Peace River? What about sharks teeth off the beaches also?
Remember that old codger with the Lodge on Spirit Lake near Mt. St. Helens the media turned into a hero/celebrity?
His body has been under several hundred feet of pyroclastic flow for 24 years now.
Are you being purposely obtuse? It was just my opinion that your comment was probably not the coolest thing to say at the time, although I also thought that jumping on you for it was uncalled for. Lets just make peace man!
I too used to think Hurricanes were cool, and I still know many people who live down here who think they are. They ain't cool, but I did think it was sort of neet to see that big barge that was washed ashore down here by Andrew..
Hmmm... By any chance do you maintain a NW CT weather web site? I monitor such a web site for near-realtime lightning stroke data (I also have my own lightning detector, but it is not currently in service)...
In today's cost, it's still moonshine brother...lol
Which part of PI? I had a significant friend from PI and thought it was a pretty great R&R. Changing significantly lately I've heard.
Well, a 'concrete' structure would be pretty hard to take down.
I hear a lot of mobile homes are in the area in question. Whoever did not heed evac orders is likely without a home (at the very least).
Charlotte Harbor was like a magnet for this Hurricane...right up the chute.
He must have caught them dancing that afternoon...
I like the idea that God reached down, turned the dial from Cat-4 to Cat-1, then went back to filing his nails. It would have been a lot simpler to just wave His hand and make the hurricane vanish completely. ;)
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